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BTC Cricket Trading Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Cricket & Golf Trading
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10801

    The forecast has gone from 5 days of possible rain to 3 bone dry and sun/mon wet, back to some rain on most days. Price has been up and down a bit. Scalped a tiny bit of green

    James WoodroffeJ 1 Reply Last reply
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  • James WoodroffeJ Offline
    James WoodroffeJ Offline
    James Woodroffe
    wrote on last edited by
    #10802

    Super excited to get into this test tomorrow after a few days of R&R and turning the trading brain off. Really keen to capitalise on what I’ve been learning since the restart. I’ve just noticed and I dunno how much the Met Office forecast has changed in the last 5-6 hours since @Richard-Futter posted but has the forecast improved to what it was? I know when I checked a few days ago Tomorrow looked pretty bleak and driving home the forecast where I live 30 miles from Southampton looked ordinary as however in the couple of hours I’ve been home not so much now. Just wondering if the current 3.15 for the draw looks great value to lay early doors?

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  • Richard FutterR Offline
    Richard FutterR Offline
    Richard Futter
    wrote on last edited by
    #10803

    Could be some cracking value laying the draw during this Test. Under 3 is a very good place to start, because we're talking thunderstorms generally, which are usually pretty short lived. Test match grounds these days all have excellent drainage so I'll be quite surprised if huge amounts of time are lost.

    The Met Office highlights the chance of rain every day, it's true, but always at less than 50% at any one time, so I'll be keeping a very close eye on the Netweather Radar.

    When there is rain, the draw price inevitably tumbles, but there's nearly always a sizeable rebound and if you can get anywhere near the bottom you're quids in. I've made some of my biggest profits doing just that in matches where rain is prevalent.

    Looking at other odds, Pakistan look high at 4.7. They were slightly too cautious when in a winning position at Old Trafford, but they nearly always come out punching when they've been beaten.

    Once again, I would expect the team winning the toss to bat first. And if it's England there's a good chance their price will shorten accordingly.

    Going to be another fascinating match I reckon, for both traders and cricket lovers alike.

    Professional Betfair Trader since 2004 - The Master of Cricket Markets

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard FutterR Offline
    Richard FutterR Offline
    Richard Futter
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10804

    @dean-adams said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:

    Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying

    If laying the draw, I often use quite small amounts but drip one tick at a time

    Professional Betfair Trader since 2004 - The Master of Cricket Markets

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10805

    Just out of interest how many ticks do people generally leave between each lay when drip laying

    Richard FutterR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10806

    Thanks @andrew-wooding

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by A Former User
    #10807

    @dean-adams no not really mate. Looks patchy first 3 days but a little more sustained days 4/5. Think the play here is to take some early value laying the draw. Then asses the situation day by day.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10808

    Met office suggesting rain on and off all 5 days now. Any other sources suggest anything different?

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10809

    @nathan-bennett good thx mate. Yourself?
    Cheers for replying in detail. I just got matched @2.8 which I’m happy with. As I read it (meteorology not a passion of mine), it’s Sunday and Monday which see the most disruption (please anyone correct me if wrong!). Therefore draw backers are looking at the whole test and making a judgement on that. Fact that we’ll get 3 days play prior to Sunday says to me, that logically once the action starts the price will drift.
    Take your point about how many overs would need to be lost etc. I guess like most with inexperience comes the fear of shooting your self in the foot, even if you think your thought process is rational!!

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  • Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan Bennett
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10810

    @andrew-wooding how's things . historically yes ! as far as conditions and current market how it reacts i can't call it for certain . two of the most experienced lads on here luke ridger and richard flutter been doing test cricket trading for very long time . one comment of lukes some time back mentioned for a draw to be a strong result in England basically need up to 120 overs lost in a test and even then its still only a 13% chance of happening (close to that believe even if not quite word for word) . So when the weather maybe poor this could be good indicator to hold on to those lays .. #bitofanovel

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Nathan Bennett on last edited by
    #10811

    @nathan-bennett any value laying at 3.0 day before the off?

    Nathan BennettN 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10812

    @jon-m well if you get any more inklings my good man don’t be shy 😁

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10813

    @andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:

    @martin-futter I won on this one Martin thx to Jon’s tip. TBH it was a bet rather than a trade because the lay price was so high until the very end you couldn’t trade it if you wanted to really. Was just exceptional value as a back price.

    Yes, I’d agree liquidity is v poor so you can’t really do proper trading, but I enjoy following the matches and occasionally a price stands out that I back. Helps my mind tick over between the Tests.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #10814

    @martin-futter I won on this one Martin thx to Jon’s tip. TBH it was a bet rather than a trade because the lay price was so high until the very end you couldn’t trade it if you wanted to really. Was just exceptional value as a back price.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #10815

    @jon-m said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:

    @jon-m said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:

    Anyone following the county matches? Some cracking ones going on.

    Yorkshire seem cracking value at 2.86 to bowl out Notts.

    great shout! how was the liquidity? not looked at county in a while as money was very low.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan Bennett
    wrote on last edited by
    #10816

    loving it

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10817

    Just jumped out to 3.3

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan BennettN Offline
    Nathan Bennett
    replied to Luke Ridger on last edited by
    #10818

    @luke-ridger joining in @2.8 go again @2.0 this market should be our favour for a long time if interruptions minimal

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • S Offline
    S Offline
    Simji
    wrote on last edited by Simji
    #10819

    Got on the draw just after the last test knowing that this week had a mixed weather towards weekend with the thunder storms. Nice green built up on the draw before I start laying the draw.

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #10820

    Can’t work out the Draw price either. I’m still waiting and seeing. Will probably wait until the Test starts before my first trade.

    1 Reply Last reply
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