The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I laid U3.5 at 2.1 and i think it matched just after 50'

Not too bad then.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer I laid U3.5 at 2.1 and i think it matched just after 50'

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one game tonight for a SH goal or two:

No joy on this, useless!

Then again the odds made it pretty much impossible anyway didn't they?

I was on it as well and had the mixed joy of actually watching it. There were a good number of small chances but not a lot of clear cut ones and the pace in the game wasn't very high. I did get the feeling that none of the teams had any real motivation (there was nothing to play for for either team). My alternative had been the Grasshoppers game which I had on my filter as well and that was, in hindsight, the obvious choice as Grasshoppers had everything to play for.

What odds did you get? I've pretty much decided to rule out anything with poor odds from the get go. I miss some winners but recently miss a few stinkers as well.

I backed Goals +1,5, so I got high odds, I believe they were 2.82. I entered at 60 minutes. Should obviously have gone for the other match which had similar odds and went on to "win".

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one game tonight for a SH goal or two:

No joy on this, useless!

Then again the odds made it pretty much impossible anyway didn't they?

I was on it as well and had the mixed joy of actually watching it. There were a good number of small chances but not a lot of clear cut ones and the pace in the game wasn't very high. I did get the feeling that none of the teams had any real motivation (there was nothing to play for for either team). My alternative had been the Grasshoppers game which I had on my filter as well and that was, in hindsight, the obvious choice as Grasshoppers had everything to play for.

What odds did you get? I've pretty much decided to rule out anything with poor odds from the get go. I miss some winners but recently miss a few stinkers as well.

[Simji]

Football for me is one of my most profitable but also its the one i lose the most if not more on.

Trying to get my head around a few things, its my exit points that i struggle with. I see to chase the green.

with the above screenshot im not wanting to risk the 100 stake as we know we wouldnt be in the market that long so we know we wont get the 122 profit. But when i see that i try and get the maximum i can out of it instead of saying i would like an X amount before greening up.

In this instance what would people expect or would want % wise in these sort of trades?

If an early goal goes in sometimes ive had say 6 pound in the green before hand but ive held on to try and get more so once a goal goes in i should get out but i try and hold on again to see if i can bring the red out again so if another goal goes in before the half time i normally tend to leave it in and hope this is where i know i go wrong and try not too but this is the same lack of discipline i tend to find myself in. I do well for say a week then let it all go again in one game/trade.

I have tried a get out in say 12 ticks but some games that could be 5 mins but some it can take up to 20 minutes.

Any thoughts?

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one game tonight for a SH goal or two:

No joy on this, useless!

Then again the odds made it pretty much impossible anyway didn't they?

I was on it as well and had the mixed joy of actually watching it. There were a good number of small chances but not a lot of clear cut ones and the pace in the game wasn't very high. I did get the feeling that none of the teams had any real motivation (there was nothing to play for for either team). My alternative had been the Grasshoppers game which I had on my filter as well and that was, in hindsight, the obvious choice as Grasshoppers had everything to play for.

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one game tonight for a SH goal or two:

No joy on this, useless!

Then again the odds made it pretty much impossible anyway didn't they?

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman nice that there is potentially still quite a bit of motivation about going into the last day , thanks for the heads up as I haven't had a chance to look yet

[A Former User]

Keeping an eye on these for a SH goal or 2:

Be wary of the Austrian games, its the last game of the regular season. These are teams with something to play for but check what the current score means for the teams

Ried - Top by just one goal. They just need to better Klagenfurts results so if Klagenfurt are winning then Ried need to win also, they may need a few goals

Floridsdorfer and Horn (both away) are battling to get out the bottom 3

Juniors - If the teams below them get the points needed then technically they could still get dragged into the bottom 3 on GD. A point will see them clear of bottom 3

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just the one game tonight for a SH goal or two:

No joy on this, useless!

[A Former User]

@daniel-cooper I agree with Darri on this, monthly is a more stable way of doing it and is less inclined to erratic fluctuations

[A Former User]

@daniel-cooper can only speak about my own way of doing this, but i will look at what the bank is after each month. Then ill redo what 1 point = in relation to the new bank. 1 day would be too volatile for me. I know others do it after a certain number of trades, certain bank size ie if they then double their bank size or after a certain amount of months. For me its monthly. So if i started july with £100 1 point = £1.00 ill trade using this value for the whole month, if when i start august and my bank has grown to £120 ill then use 1 point = £1.20. Thats when compounding starts

[Daniel Cooper]

@darri question on this guys. Do you start each day working out what “1 point” means to you that day? Lets say the day before you profitted £10, going from a £100 bank to a £110 bank at the start of that day, is 1 point now £11 to you? Or is 1 point still £10 because that additional £10 is money you earned?

A bit of a pointless question but hoping for clarity

[A Former User]

@james-woodroffe on my main bank i always stake to a liability of 2 points/2% of bank, take advantage of these low prices. So a £100 bank i risk 2 points/2% of bank = £2. So if using example the LCS odds are 1.50 i will risk a total liability of 2%(£2) to make 4%(£4).

Every trade i do within a strategy = 2% liability if thats backing or laying, means im cashing when i select better prices plus im remaining consistent when it comes to measuring my trading, keeping it simple. Just a matter of preference based on how you like to trade.

[Richard Latimer]

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen when I back I only 95% of the time back at over 2.0 so I risk a point to make a point. When I lay I lay at short odds on and I risk a point in order to make however much. So if I lay at 1.30 and I risk £10 or 1point for example I’m looking to make £20which to me is 2 points. Does that make sense?
Hypothetically £10 is 1 point. Back at 2.0 risk 1 point £10 make £10 (1 point) lay at 1.30 risk £10 1 point make £20 (2 points) that’s how I do it.

Because the probabilities are reduced laying short odds I will never lay to liability of 1pt. Always low liability to win 1pt.

Yeah but I’m only entering the market late most times because I’m expecting a goal when the market doesn’t expect it. I don’t always risk a point to make numerous on return but I’ll always risk at least a half point when the odds are low.

Fair enough but statistically even if the there is a massive edge and it should be more like 1.5 when it's 1.3, eventually you could go on a long losing streak and if each is laid to 1pt liability that could be quite a few points gone. That's the way I look at it.

[James Woodroffe]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen when I back I only 95% of the time back at over 2.0 so I risk a point to make a point. When I lay I lay at short odds on and I risk a point in order to make however much. So if I lay at 1.30 and I risk £10 or 1point for example I’m looking to make £20which to me is 2 points. Does that make sense?
Hypothetically £10 is 1 point. Back at 2.0 risk 1 point £10 make £10 (1 point) lay at 1.30 risk £10 1 point make £20 (2 points) that’s how I do it.

Because the probabilities are reduced laying short odds I will never lay to liability of 1pt. Always low liability to win 1pt.

Yeah but I’m only entering the market late most times because I’m expecting a goal when the market doesn’t expect it. I don’t always risk a point to make numerous on return but I’ll always risk at least a half point when the odds are low.

[Richard Latimer]

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen when I back I only 95% of the time back at over 2.0 so I risk a point to make a point. When I lay I lay at short odds on and I risk a point in order to make however much. So if I lay at 1.30 and I risk £10 or 1point for example I’m looking to make £20which to me is 2 points. Does that make sense?
Hypothetically £10 is 1 point. Back at 2.0 risk 1 point £10 make £10 (1 point) lay at 1.30 risk £10 1 point make £20 (2 points) that’s how I do it.

Because the probabilities are reduced laying short odds I will never lay to liability of 1pt. Always low liability to win 1pt.

[James Woodroffe]

@finn-kristensen when I back I only 95% of the time back at over 2.0 so I risk a point to make a point. When I lay I lay at short odds on and I risk a point in order to make however much. So if I lay at 1.30 and I risk £10 or 1point for example I’m looking to make £20which to me is 2 points. Does that make sense?
Hypothetically £10 is 1 point. Back at 2.0 risk 1 point £10 make £10 (1 point) lay at 1.30 risk £10 1 point make £20 (2 points) that’s how I do it.

[Finn Kristensen]

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Ahhh ok @Ben-Dobie @Finn-Kristensen @Darri
I still don’t get it then sorry Ben I must be way off and it wasn’t my intention to put down your performance tonight at all. It seems to me that maybe I’m overstaking still. If 1 point is 1% and I’m risking 3% to make 1 point. Happy to be wrong and something to look at going forward.

I think your confusion has to do with liability vs profits when Laying.

Let's say you have a 100 points bank.

You then want to LCS at the 60th minute at odds 3.5.
This means that if you want a potential profit of 1 pt. (disregarding commission for this example), you will then have a liability of 2.5 - i.e., you're basically trading with a 2.5 pts stake (since for Laying stake = liability), equal to 2.5% of your bank.

If you're just backing, you typically back with 1 pt stakes unless you go a bit more advanced and back in order to get 1 pt profit.

If you only want to risk 1 pt (liability) when laying, your profit will vary based on the odds, rather than if you always go for a set profit (e.g., of 1 pt). If you are laying at odds-on, you may want to lay to get a potential 1pt profit or more, whereas if the odds are above 2.0, you may want to lay to only risk 1 pt (i.e., liability is 1 pt), which means that your potential profit will be less than 1 pt. It's all about risk management. Obviously, when you have enough data and you have a good idea about strike rates at various odds ranges, you can refine your staking/liability approach.

Sorry if this is a bit too basic and there is nothing new here

[A Former User]

People do it differently but the initial premise was to take your whole bank and divide into 100 points. Each point is therefore 1% of the bank.

So if your bank is £100 then you divide this by 100 so 1 point will = £1
It was designed so that as your bank grows you can measure consistently. Because if you measured in money value you would be having variable increases all the time and therefore harder to measure.

Its just a measuring tool for how your trading. Thats why you shouldnt compare yourself to others because they do things differently. But the initial idea of the points system is 1 point was to equal 1% of bank. Its the same measure they use in most financials.