The road to full time

Matt Wood

@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:

@matt-wood said in The road to full time:

Maybe I am in some weird Matrix place and you are ALL Darri Agent Smith...PANIC...look for NEO.

Thanks Finn nice and simple. Answers to my questions usually are

By the way, if you want to read a bit more about odds in general, there is a decent explanation here: https://serioussportstrader.com/sports-bettingtrading-understanding-the-odds/

Thanks for the link, bookmarked for some toilet time reading

Matt Wood

@darri said in The road to full time:

@matt-wood i use a odds calculator, ben posted a good one, i use https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html.

Basically enter your strike rate into the probability. So to find the back odds you would enter 60 and for lay odds = you just use 100% whatever your probability is our case its 60 so 100-60 = 40. This will show 1.67 for backs and 2.5 for lay.

What i would do here is add the betfair commission plan you selected when you set it up. It can be found in the rewards plan. If you selected 2% add 0.02 to the back and minus 0.02 to the lay odds. Or if 5% comm then 0.05 respectively. Remember this is just break even point what it does is allows us to know what our base price is so we can cut games that dont match it. We would then look to better this price inplay giving ourselves what is known as an edge in the market price which allows us to make profit.

Thanks Agent Darri! You got beaten to it by your 'other selves' (evidence of the great community here).

Seriously though thanks for the explanation and the continuation of this blog

Finn Kristensen

@matt-wood said in The road to full time:

Maybe I am in some weird Matrix place and you are ALL Darri Agent Smith...PANIC...look for NEO.

Thanks Finn nice and simple. Answers to my questions usually are

By the way, if you want to read a bit more about odds in general, there is a decent explanation here: https://serioussportstrader.com/sports-bettingtrading-understanding-the-odds/

Matt Wood

@finn-kristensen said in The road to full time:

@matt-wood said in The road to full time:

@darri said in The road to full time:

strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit.

Afternoon Darri, hope you getting some sunshine north of the border

Your post below detailing how and why you choose a game and explaining the rationale around the strategy is fantastic. Very clear and helpful to us beginners Thank you.

I do have a stupid question though. You wrote:

"...strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit."

How is the sr converted into minimum odds, both for backing and laying? This is something I still have yet to figure out and some of my own filter testings are reaching a big enough sample size that I may need to start looking at this to move forwards.

Thanks in advance

Hi Matt - I am not Darri - but I'll answer it anyway. It's pretty straight forward.
To convert strike rate/probability into odds, you just divide 1 by the probability (or strike rate), so if you have a strike rate at 60%, you need odds (excl. commission) at 1/0.60 = 1.67. If you pay commission (using an Exchange), you then need a bit higher odds depending on your commission rate.

Maybe I am in some weird Matrix place and you are ALL Darri Agent Smith...PANIC...look for NEO.

Thanks Finn nice and simple. Answers to my questions usually are

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awesome to see the posts in here guys! Thanks for the support and for helping others out too

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@matt-wood i use a odds calculator, ben posted a good one, i use https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html.

Basically enter your strike rate into the probability. So to find the back odds you would enter 60 and for lay odds = you just use 100% whatever your probability is our case its 60 so 100-60 = 40. This will show 1.67 for backs and 2.5 for lay.

What i would do here is add the betfair commission plan you selected when you set it up. It can be found in the rewards plan. If you selected 2% add 0.02 to the back and minus 0.02 to the lay odds. Or if 5% comm then 0.05 respectively. Remember this is just break even point what it does is allows us to know what our base price is so we can cut games that dont match it. We would then look to better this price inplay giving ourselves what is known as an edge in the market price which allows us to make profit.

Finn Kristensen

@matt-wood said in The road to full time:

@darri said in The road to full time:

strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit.

Afternoon Darri, hope you getting some sunshine north of the border

Your post below detailing how and why you choose a game and explaining the rationale around the strategy is fantastic. Very clear and helpful to us beginners Thank you.

I do have a stupid question though. You wrote:

"...strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit."

How is the sr converted into minimum odds, both for backing and laying? This is something I still have yet to figure out and some of my own filter testings are reaching a big enough sample size that I may need to start looking at this to move forwards.

Thanks in advance

Hi Matt - I am not Darri - but I'll answer it anyway. It's pretty straight forward.
To convert strike rate/probability into odds, you just divide 1 by the probability (or strike rate), so if you have a strike rate at 60%, you need odds (excl. commission) at 1/0.60 = 1.67. If you pay commission (using an Exchange), you then need a bit higher odds depending on your commission rate.

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@matt-wood you're welcome mate

Matt Wood

@ben-dobie said in The road to full time:

@matt-wood https://strikeratecalculator.com/

Darri may explain better mate but I use this as a rough guide

Thanks Ben

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@matt-wood https://strikeratecalculator.com/

Darri may explain better mate but I use this as a rough guide

Matt Wood

@darri said in The road to full time:

strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit.

Afternoon Darri, hope you getting some sunshine north of the border

Your post below detailing how and why you choose a game and explaining the rationale around the strategy is fantastic. Very clear and helpful to us beginners Thank you.

I do have a stupid question though. You wrote:

"...strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit."

How is the sr converted into minimum odds, both for backing and laying? This is something I still have yet to figure out and some of my own filter testings are reaching a big enough sample size that I may need to start looking at this to move forwards.

Thanks in advance

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@darri brilliant explanation thanks mate, really useful to see how you approach/think about a trade of this sort

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@ben-dobie just realised iv not done a post saying exactly how i trade a game, ill have to do one, i had just assumed i had was looking to try link you to a previous post but i cant see it.

Right so, using the pre-inplay-price model i use, ill explain how/why this game will be traded.

PRE
These teams have had a goal in the 2nd half 90% in last 5 home/away respectively. Home team have scored 80% and away have conceded 80% by full time. Taking a look at H2H rosenborg have scored in every game between the two teams at home since 2005. So i feel comfortable to be getting in on the game for the scorelines which compliment rosenborg scoring at least 1 goal. So = 0-0/0-1. Marking down on the trading plan for the day to focus on the inplay stats/watch game to make sure rosenborg are the dominant side. Making a note of top goalscorer is T.Borven, will want him playing when i plan to enter.

INPLAY
I will watch the game from 45 mins onwards. I dont care for 1st half action. I will look to make sure Borven is heavily involved in the game, with a couple of chances on goal. If you are into a more stats based approach i will want rosenborg to have had +3 shots on target preferably in the 2nd half. However combining both shots on and off would be more wise, goal pressure is something i prefer. So some sort of combination of say 3 on 5 off. If rosenborg are dominant in the stats and match flow is all them i will then look at odds.

PRICE
Now i have the knowledge that rosenborg are the team i want to focus on for a goal. The score is 0-0/0-1 as marked out in our pre match research, iv then seen borven is playing and looking dangerous, rosenborg are creating chances and there is significant goal pressure in the game. Using our older data we can see we have a minimum strike rate of 60% meaning anything over 1.69 (back overs) or under 2.5 (lay overs/score) inc commission is profit. Thats the base, i then factor in that rosenborg are on top and looking like scoring. If the price between 70-75 is somewhere between, 1.75-2.0 i will enter my LCS/Back over trade. (OPTIONAL)I will then watch still for another 5-10 mins if rosenborg continue to dominate and look like scoring and its 0-0 i will enter again with a LTD. Last part is optional but is something im comfortable doing ill do a proper post later to discuss my actual trading strategy.

So in answer to your question definitely when value is shown but also +70 onwards, this is typically when the markets start to panic and other trading strategies try get out of earlier trades. We be greedy when others are fearful.

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Trading shortlist 30/07/20:

LCS/LTD:

rosenborg vs viking: 0-0/0-1

will post them in here as that seems to be the general feedback people wanted in order to keep everything grouped together

@Darri hello mate just so I've got it straight, you'll trade this game if it's any one of those scorelines 70+ or when you see value in the odds ?

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Trading shortlist 30/07/20:

LCS/LTD:

rosenborg vs viking: 0-0/0-1

will post them in here as that seems to be the general feedback people wanted in order to keep everything grouped together

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Both games starting super fast, this is where you have to keep discipline. Iv now got no trades today, just move on, dont go hunting for another game. This was your list none qualified we wait for the next batch of games. My overall approach allows me to just sit back and let the trades come to me, im not fishing for the next trade. Of course i wanted to trade those games, but there is another round of games that will also match our criteria coming up. I wont always do this type of post after our list doesnt qualify, just posting this because its the first of many. Stick to your process, remain disciplined and consistent.

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@chris-osborne Good question. This game isnt from a filter. I would treat this game the same way i treat the champs league/europa league knockout games/cup game mindset. I will judge based on how the game is flowing. If brentford dont try they are out. The same type of strategy will happen ill enter late on if the game allows, if brentford look like they are on top ill get involved if the scores i have picked are on offer. Brentford home form is good and only recently has swanseas away form been good, but they leak goals when playing away.

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Trading watch-list 29/07/20:

LCS/LTD :

molde vs valerenga: 0-0
brentford vs swansea: 0-0/1-0

Ill post probably when i go live with each trade on the football thread still, let me know if you would prefer them cleanly posted here or over on the football thread for future

Does the Brentford v Swansea game being a play off game still mean you'll be looking to trade if the opportunity present itself or does it make you think twice?

Martin Walker

@finn-kristensen i agree

Finn Kristensen

@darri said in The road to full time:

Trading watch-list 29/07/20:

LCS/LTD :

molde vs valerenga: 0-0
brentford vs swansea: 0-0/1-0

Ill post probably when i go live with each trade on the football thread still, let me know if you would prefer them cleanly posted here or over on the football thread for future

Was about to answer but I literally can't make my mind up on what's better. Keeping this site "clean" is a good thing, however keeping all the trades, strategies and discussions here is also a good option. Hmm... I think I would go for keeping it all in here.