The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Top v Bottom and Quang Nam already under evens to lay... Something doesn't seem right there... Crazy
Got in @ 1.78. Think maybe away just taking time to settle. Seems a little more even now.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@alan-steward sai gon game goes 75 % from 1-0 to 1-1 and prob sh goal is 100% BUT SMALL SAMPLE SIZE
-
@richard-latimer Top v Bottom and Quang Nam already under evens to lay... Something doesn't seem right there... Crazy
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
2-0 now lol... Sorry 1-0 ruled out
Would have laid that in a heartbeat
-
@alan-steward nice
-
2-0 now lol... Sorry 1-0 ruled out
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Richard your Vietnamese guys have gone 1 behind... Would/Do you trade that league?
All seems a little one way traffic at the moment though. Waiting for it to even out a bit. Still, enough money has gone down on the lay which is always a good sign I think.
-
sai gon /ha noi sh goals any score line
-
Richard your Vietnamese guys have gone 1 behind... Would/Do you trade that league?
-
@alan-steward Agree with this. Have gone for 0.5pt on o1.5. Will reassess later for another 0.5pt
-
-
@finn-kristensen Exactly mate not too sure which is why I trade what I see... Expect 1 goal for sure... I've just dropped 0.25pts in o1.5 goals and will evaluate after HT to see if I can justify another 0.25pts or wait to just LCS
-
@finn-kristensen home stadium
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Fancied a Split Stake in Aussie game although it's slightly one way traffic... Anybody else lining anything up?
It's on my >2.5 goals filter but I am still not convinced about the Aussie games as so few after the lockdown. Also, is this actually a home game or is it played elsewhere?
-
@martin-walker Didn't quite qualify on my FHG... Am deleting Aussie & MLS for now... May add A League back in soon... Am trading what I see at the mo with these guys
-
@Martin-Futter messaged Adam in private message yesterday but not response as of yet, would be nice to have some clarity on how they work and how the stats are formed. Havent seen any guides but there could be some on here??
-
@alan-steward fhg
-
Fancied a Split Stake in Aussie game although it's slightly one way traffic... Anybody else lining anything up?
-
Not as much potential on the ELO's today:
I had previously ruled out Morocco but on the basis of trying to look at things in more detail I want to do just that with a few leagues before s**t canning them.
Once Serie A is over I plan to press the reset button a bit on these. Spreadsheet needs updating so I'm collecting more specific data (for example I need to be able to count when I've re-laid rather than just amalgamate 2 odds into a lower average odds figure as I'm doing now.
I'm also going to cash on every equaliser I think. It may not optimise things as much as they could be but as my bank grows (and I'm very clear in my mind that this is the time when all those 10-15 years of messing around finally come to fruition and create something) it will be as much about protecting the current bank as it is about growing it. Can't do one without the other.
I think I've seen enough to show that just because the stronger team takes the lead and then falls behind later this shouldn't rule out the lay.
I think when the home team falls behind again after 70 these can still be used to good effect at much lower odds
However, when the away favourite falls behind again this is a real 50/50 thing. I've got 20 results recorded where this happened and it's a 9/11 split right now so all depends on the odds I think and whether it would be potentially throwing away hard earned money. Inplay stats and who's on the pitch will also have a say.
For teams that go 0-2/2-0 down I'll still remove liability as a minimum where possible and if greening makes sense in terms of what I can get against what I've already got I'll do that. Where more than 50% of the liability has already been lost I'll make an executive decision whether to stay in or not.
It's fair to say that since football restarted these extreme comebacks have looked so inviting you would be foolish not to stay in. There have been 2 away comebacks from 2-0 and and 6 from 7 home comebacks from being 0-2 down. However, this paints a very different story to the way it was pre lockdown. Before that point it was very much a 50/50 split and with increased liability, staying in for one bumper win and one bumper loss, far exceeding that bumper win when you can take small loss on one and small green on the other or small red on both etc..... possibly isn't the best idea.
If cashing out on an equaliser is about protecting the bank then surely the same must be applied to minimising your losses when an escape route presents itself. Even if that bumper win is whispering sweet nothings in your ear with the stronger team knocking on the door, then that bumper red should be equally as loud in your ears.
I started off re-laying as no more than a potential escape route and that's really the way it should remain. Frequent small wins outweigh infrequent larger wins any day of the week when interspersed with larger losses.
-
@daniel-cooper @Richard-Latimer have to say I am loving that filter!
