The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Even if it isn't what I want to get you to is arming yourself with the tools to stop it before it gets too long - so asking yourself out loud what am I doing? Does this fit with me? Is this a trade or a bet? Then get out, even if its small loss in the first few mins before the game kicks off
We can do this bud!
Yeah cheers mate
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan get yourself a staking plan and only risk around 2% of your bankroll on any one trade and this won’t happen.
The thing is I have a staking plan, just didnt follow it tonight. Honestly could not have seen city not scoring in that game. I was sitting Arsenal -200 Draw +184 and City +60 at 1-0 to arsenal.
While tonight feels like crap, in the long run, this may be what you needed. Had the GAMBLE won (because that is what this was - it was never a trade the way you treated it), you would have learned nothing and would do it again in a heartbeat. Hopefully, now you've learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a sure bet. Like others have said - and you even know this yourself and have even made a staking plan - only risk 1-2% per trade, never more - no matter how much of a "sure thing" it feels like.
Trading is truly as much about psychology as it is about understanding odds and the markets. You understand odds and the markets and know what you SHOULD do but still managed to fail today, so it's clear where your problem lies.
I am now back to where I was at the start 12th June. I have a £500 bank, I got it up to £720 in a month in slow amounts. I have lost the green that I made. I have now set up a loss limit on betfair for 10 points max.
I really need to master my mind. One side of me was saying dont do it but the other side was saying City will score and you can green up for a nice amount.
When I started this trading I was happy for my self to get 10% per month. I started to do better than that and think I got carried away. Back to square one.I really appreciate all you guys giving advice (even though I know what I done)
Eamonn,
I think most of us have done something similar at one point. I say this to reassure you that you are not fatally flawed as a trader.
There are people who have done far stupider things. Look on twitter: there are people who would have risked their entire BANK on a similar "cert", never mind the month's profit.
It's probably best to lick your wounds for a few days and then get to what worked, namely what made you the 40 odd points of profit, if it didn't involve similar risk taking.
Last month I bounced around 19 to 20 to 19 points for a week, got frustrated and then needed to tell myself that a few months prior I'd be delighted to have broken even.
Thanks mate. Yeah gonna gonna go back to basics with small stakes like I was in the beginning and work it up again. Thanks for the support. Means a lot.
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Even if it isn't what I want to get you to is arming yourself with the tools to stop it before it gets too long - so asking yourself out loud what am I doing? Does this fit with me? Is this a trade or a bet? Then get out, even if its small loss in the first few mins before the game kicks off
We can do this bud!
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan Pleased to have you! You've connected with the members really well buddy
It feels as if you’re not alone. It’s good to have people especially yesterday tell me how stupid I was. I already low that anyway. Some good advice from some of the guys. Really appreciated them taking the time to comment.
Hopefully Man City v Arsenal was my last bet. -
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan get yourself a staking plan and only risk around 2% of your bankroll on any one trade and this won’t happen.
The thing is I have a staking plan, just didnt follow it tonight. Honestly could not have seen city not scoring in that game. I was sitting Arsenal -200 Draw +184 and City +60 at 1-0 to arsenal.
While tonight feels like crap, in the long run, this may be what you needed. Had the GAMBLE won (because that is what this was - it was never a trade the way you treated it), you would have learned nothing and would do it again in a heartbeat. Hopefully, now you've learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a sure bet. Like others have said - and you even know this yourself and have even made a staking plan - only risk 1-2% per trade, never more - no matter how much of a "sure thing" it feels like.
Trading is truly as much about psychology as it is about understanding odds and the markets. You understand odds and the markets and know what you SHOULD do but still managed to fail today, so it's clear where your problem lies.
I am now back to where I was at the start 12th June. I have a £500 bank, I got it up to £720 in a month in slow amounts. I have lost the green that I made. I have now set up a loss limit on betfair for 10 points max.
I really need to master my mind. One side of me was saying dont do it but the other side was saying City will score and you can green up for a nice amount.
When I started this trading I was happy for my self to get 10% per month. I started to do better than that and think I got carried away. Back to square one.I really appreciate all you guys giving advice (even though I know what I done)
Eamonn,
I think most of us have done something similar at one point. I say this to reassure you that you are not fatally flawed as a trader.
There are people who have done far stupider things. Look on twitter: there are people who would have risked their entire BANK on a similar "cert", never mind the month's profit.
It's probably best to lick your wounds for a few days and then get to what worked, namely what made you the 40 odd points of profit, if it didn't involve similar risk taking.
Last month I bounced around 19 to 20 to 19 points for a week, got frustrated and then needed to tell myself that a few months prior I'd be delighted to have broken even.
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@eamonn-hogan Pleased to have you! You've connected with the members really well buddy
What I will say is that you have made profit before, you can make it again buddy!
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Morning BTC, good luck today
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
So so many potentials for Sunday:
Yep looks like a bumper day doesn't it! Mind you a lot of the fluff will be cut out due to the time of the season for many leagues.
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So so many potentials for Sunday:
USL on right now. Worth keeping an eye if you're not sleepy haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I often have my lay in for 2 SH goals then if there’s a goal I’ll either let it run or take the liability out. If there’s no goal later on I’ll often LCS. Either this secures a scratch trade or increases the loss, sometimes 2 late goals wins both trades
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This truely is the best site to be in, thanks guys
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan get yourself a staking plan and only risk around 2% of your bankroll on any one trade and this won’t happen.
The thing is I have a staking plan, just didnt follow it tonight. Honestly could not have seen city not scoring in that game. I was sitting Arsenal -200 Draw +184 and City +60 at 1-0 to arsenal.
While tonight feels like crap, in the long run, this may be what you needed. Had the GAMBLE won (because that is what this was - it was never a trade the way you treated it), you would have learned nothing and would do it again in a heartbeat. Hopefully, now you've learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a sure bet. Like others have said - and you even know this yourself and have even made a staking plan - only risk 1-2% per trade, never more - no matter how much of a "sure thing" it feels like.
Trading is truly as much about psychology as it is about understanding odds and the markets. You understand odds and the markets and know what you SHOULD do but still managed to fail today, so it's clear where your problem lies.
I am now back to where I was at the start 12th June. I have a £500 bank, I got it up to £720 in a month in slow amounts. I have lost the green that I made. I have now set up a loss limit on betfair for 10 points max.
I really need to master my mind. One side of me was saying dont do it but the other side was saying City will score and you can green up for a nice amount.
When I started this trading I was happy for my self to get 10% per month. I started to do better than that and think I got carried away. Back to square one.I really appreciate all you guys giving advice (even though I know what I done)
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Reading down the page it seems pretty shitty to document a small green Day so I won't. Save it for tomorrow. If this was me I'd avoid putting a single penny on anything for a couple of weeks @Eamonn-Hogan. I was watching inplay stats on that game, amazed we were 1-0 up and thinking how it was only a matter of time. No way I could bear to watch.
Doesn't matter how sure it looks but then you know that.
Paper trade for a bit. Collect data etc...and if you can't do that without making an actual trade take a complete break. You need a reset after this.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I either look to LCS from 60’ onwards or look for 2 SH goals at 50’. Odds have to be under around 2.3 to be considered and I also have to consider what affect 1 goal would do to the game based on the score line
ok because when i enter i dripback let say ht 1-0 then i go in arround 50 th min and back odds 2/3/4/5 and when there is a goal normally cash out no goal i will lay the CS with 1 point
then i put in the trade arround 2 points only a problem when have 3 loosers in a row -
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan get yourself a staking plan and only risk around 2% of your bankroll on any one trade and this won’t happen.
The thing is I have a staking plan, just didnt follow it tonight. Honestly could not have seen city not scoring in that game. I was sitting Arsenal -200 Draw +184 and City +60 at 1-0 to arsenal.
While tonight feels like crap, in the long run, this may be what you needed. Had the GAMBLE won (because that is what this was - it was never a trade the way you treated it), you would have learned nothing and would do it again in a heartbeat. Hopefully, now you've learned the hard way that there is no such thing as a sure bet. Like others have said - and you even know this yourself and have even made a staking plan - only risk 1-2% per trade, never more - no matter how much of a "sure thing" it feels like.
Trading is truly as much about psychology as it is about understanding odds and the markets. You understand odds and the markets and know what you SHOULD do but still managed to fail today, so it's clear where your problem lies.
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I either look to LCS from 60’ onwards or look for 2 SH goals at 50’. Odds have to be under around 2.3 to be considered and I also have to consider what affect 1 goal would do to the game based on the score line
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan get yourself a staking plan and only risk around 2% of your bankroll on any one trade and this won’t happen.
The thing is I have a staking plan, just didnt follow it tonight. Honestly could not have seen city not scoring in that game. I was sitting Arsenal -200 Draw +184 and City +60 at 1-0 to arsenal.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Keeping my eye on these games today (SH is for a SH goal or 2, FH is for first half goal)
Most important thing is to check the intention of the teams playing. At least one team in each game has something to play for but i will monitor whether the current score suits both teams, if it does then ill leave alone
Decent day on these, all games had a SH goal as expected. Only 1 out of 2 of the FH games had a goal. Someone pointed out that Atalanta were missing one or two of their top scorers so maybe something i shouldve checked first
how y trade sh goals then?
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan How did you manage to lose so much profit on one game? One thing you need is to protect yourself from that happening through bank management, so maximum of 1% or maybe 2% maximum liability per trade. That way you know the risk and the worst case scenario before you even enter the trade
Another pointer, most traders dont touch cup games. I appreciate its two teams from the same league and therefore there is H2H information to use, but still cup games are best avoided (unless you are a trader who goes only on the 'here-and-now' rather than using data)
Yeah I know I should only be using 1-2% but that is my biggest problem. I had a 10 points on city to win the game at kick off then when arsenal went in front I laid them again. I know it was stupid and Im kicking myself. City rested KDB and Sterling midweek for this game I just didnt see that coming. I am a gambler who needs to get away from it and I thought I was but clearly needs work.
More than 10 points on one trade is insane! You say you are 44 points down in a week, i dont think most people even trade 44 points in a week
Not really sure what else to say, you know theres an issue so i would suggest you find a way to restrict trades (pick 2/3 strong trades per day) and restrict yourself to 1% per trade. Until you do that then even the best strategies wont work and its just punting. The time you save by trading less can be used on studying mentality (reading books, watching videos, podcasts etc)
I know what your saying mate, I know what I did was wrong, I was actually up 2 points for the day when I done the man city trade. I have been doing really well for the first 4 weeks or so since I started but i seemed to lose the idea of what I was doing the last 3/4 days. I now realise that I have just been sitting at the computer looking for bets rather than following a plan. I set up a blog for me to fill in to keep me away from doing what I have done this evening and I it conincides with the fact I have not written in it for a couple of days.
