The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Of course but then again it's finding that filter... In actual fact I had an idea to share on Ryans challenge you've just reminded me... Will check if more experienced traders can join in
-
@martin-walker Yes mate can fully understand that unless you have software... I knocked up a simple bot for Bet Angel so drop them in first thing after updating my spreadsheet and let them get on with it.
I only step in at HT if still 0-0 and asses if to trade SH... most of my picks go on to score 2 SH goals if 0-0 @ HT with some having at least 1 SH goal and only a small % ending up 0-0...
-
@alan-steward That is fine but the best is i think when y trade the fhg y get average odds 2 in your winnings trades in long run the make nice profits....let say y win 60% of your trades fhg then for breakeven
0.6x-0.41 =breakeven odds 1.67*1.02=min 1.7 full stake 1 point matched -
@alan-steward im tracking my fhg to see if dripping would be better but god i really hate it, much prefer full stake once
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Am always testing new methods... Have been testing Back @ KO 15mins, 25mins & 35mins... Has been working well but trying to keep things basic within this thread
-
@alan-steward thenwhen i trade the fhg goals market i drip 1.6/1.9/2.2/2.5 or lay 2/1.8/1.6/1.4
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Hi Johannes I'm seeing odds of 1.29 pre KO for Lausanne match & 1.27 for Young Boys should be 1.51 around the 15/20min mark
-
@alan-steward ah ha fhg goal in switserland al most 100% but the stating odds only 1.12 , that means y need to hope to get in arround the 25 min i guess
-
let say the score is level after 60 min stastical change one more goal is 70%
away team lead 0-1/1-2 after 60 min one more goal change sh is 79.5%
away team leading 0-2/1-3 after 60 min sh goal change after 60 min is 86.1%
home team is leading 1-0 after 60 min sh goal change is 78.9 %
heam team leading 2-0/3-1 after 60 min goal change is 85.7%this is from database last years, that means in my opinion y can back next goal with action odds 1.6
or y can dripbacking the next two goals markets markets
INTERESTING
But when we already had a sh goal that reduce one more a lot , then only 40-50% change one more -
Three games on my FHG watch list today;
15/07/2020 17:15 Lausanne Ouchy v Wil
15/07/2020 19:30 Young Boys v Servette Geneve FC
15/07/2020 20:45 Sassuolo v JuventusWhilst neither Lauasanne or Wil have a lot to play for they certainly score goals for fun against each other & certainly one to watch and look to back 0.5 FHG @ 1.51 for 1pt
Youngs Boys have everything to play for and I think Servette will test their steel early on... Suspect Young Boys may start a little cagey but deffo one to watch, if too quiet around the back price of 1.51 for 1pt (circa 15mins?) maybe wait to Lay @ 1.98 for 0.5pts... Expecting at least 2 goals in this match!
Sassuolo game... Another one to watch for FHG as mentioned below Juve will want to win and Sassuolo have goals in them... Reverse fixture was 2-2, albeit without closed doors I think this will only favour Sassuolo more!
-
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
JUST a quick one, is anyone playing MLS games yet?
or are you waiting for more data in terms of games played?neutral venue makes them a non-starter for me personally
-
@gary-brown waiting still. Made this mistake when the leagues started after covid. Had poor results for a few weeks.
-
also Porto V Sportingcould be a good game to watch.
Porto need points for the title. -
JUST a quick one, is anyone playing MLS games yet?
or are you waiting for more data in terms of games played? -
@gary-brown Completely right mate
-
you might want to look at the champsionship as well for some possible trades with some teams got a lot to play for I cant see them settling for draws.
Charlton V Birmingham could be a possible betgreen
Brentford well cant see them sitting back for a 0-0 with how how they have been trying to get auto promotion to prem.
-
Will be watching these- may trade them may not. Depends on how they are. Have a good one peeps
15/07/20 17:00 Norway Eliteserien Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund FHG
Lay away if 0-1
15/07/20 17:00 Norway Eliteserien Molde v Viking LTD
Lay away if 0-1
15/07/20 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Djurgarden v Falkenbergs LTD
Lay away if 0-1
15/07/20 18:30 Italy Serie A AC Milan v Parma LTD
Lay away if 0-1
15/07/20 19:15 Portugal Primeira Liga Braga v Belenenses LTD
Lay away if 0-1 -
@finn-kristensen @Ryan-Carruthers
Finn-
Cue a 0-0....Ryan- all depends on team selection and HT scores
-
@stuart-capstick Looks good, like the reasoning behind the selections too.
-
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Sassuolo couldn't manage a 0-0 even if you amputated their legs.To be fair, I think most teams would have problems in that case, at least defensively...
