The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Gutted, was hoping to lay o0.5 goals in Austria lol
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Unfortunately yes... Couldn't trade out of my o1.5 goals so being hopeful for two late goals lol
Another reason why LCS or lay under is more reliable than LTD. They will blame feed issues again I'm sure.
Think they need a new feed provider. Bet365 don't have any such problems haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Unfortunately yes... Couldn't trade out of my o1.5 goals so being hopeful for two late goals lol
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@martin-futter Hi Martin I have seen on the filter there is a Elo for home or away but couldn't seem to work out how to set up a difference between the Elo rankings of home/away. That will be good when you add. Have a good day trading mate
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Anyone else monitoring Grazer for a goal before the suspend monkey appeared?
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard personally i will check top scorers, assists and key players for the favourite because thats the way i trade ltd/lcs. Just as im entering my trade i check to make sure they are all playing. This can all be done with flashscores. Click on a game, head over to standings, then top scorers, then click on the team tab, then select the team your after and it will show top scorers and assists.
Ill do a quick video: https://www.loom.com/share/da5b9119560c4894a0f66c870bb48878
If you need lineups from the start flashscores provide that 15 mins before KO generally but twitter and club homepages will share the lineups in advance
Wow I use flash scores quite a lot and had no idea about that link, thanks a lot I will be using this when writing possible selections today and then write the top scores/assists for the favourite to the side of the selection. I will then look on the club home page/twitter 15mins before kickoff to check the main players for assists and goals are playing. Cheers
Lineups are also on sofascore
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard personally i will check top scorers, assists and key players for the favourite because thats the way i trade ltd/lcs. Just as im entering my trade i check to make sure they are all playing. This can all be done with flashscores. Click on a game, head over to standings, then top scorers, then click on the team tab, then select the team your after and it will show top scorers and assists.
Ill do a quick video: https://www.loom.com/share/da5b9119560c4894a0f66c870bb48878
If you need lineups from the start flashscores provide that 15 mins before KO generally but twitter and club homepages will share the lineups in advance
Wow I use flash scores quite a lot and had no idea about that link, thanks a lot I will be using this when writing possible selections today and then write the top scores/assists for the favourite to the side of the selection. I will then look on the club home page/twitter 15mins before kickoff to check the main players for assists and goals are playing. Cheers
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0-2 inplay lays I've been working on. Very low liability with huge potential upswing. Gained me a fiver yesterday even if I was unable to cash out when Dinamo Kiev got back against Shahktar haha!!
Have included all results so far so people can see.
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@james-woodroffe we are working on adding the ratings to filters
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Guys can I just ask when you enter the ELO into a filter how do you go about it? Is it a % total, average? Is it something that could be added to strengthen a LTD- LCS strategy or would you say it’s more for backing and laying?
I copy the table over from the ratings and move some columns around before pasting into my sheet where are my formuals are. Don't calculate manually at all.
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@james-woodroffe I use it from the Ratings rather than in a Filter
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Guys can I just ask when you enter the ELO into a filter how do you go about it? Is it a % total, average? Is it something that could be added to strengthen a LTD- LCS strategy or would you say it’s more for backing and laying?
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@daniel-cooper thanks mate and welcome to BTC.
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@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not been on here today hope everyone has had a green day. Sadly some games for my trades went very badly in the wrong direction. Might need to rethink the unders for a little. Too much swing. Yesterday up by double today down by slightly more.
My unders are working well. I wait and see if a goal has been scored in first 10 minutes I back under 2.5 then. If 2 goals between 11-20 I back under 3.5.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Richard-Latimer Probs a daft question but have you ever looked at your ELO underdog lays and thought about backing the fave from the start? If you expect them to come back into the game 0-1 down then surely there is value in backing at the beginning judging by the strike rate? or am i way off?
Not for me. Trouble is when I back and they go behind I will want to lay, then re-lay. In the end liability is too much. I also believe value is much easier to find in the middle of a game than at the beginning. Odds makers are pretty damn accurate but it's harder to be that accurate in game.
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@sam-maccuaig Great minds matey
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Richard-Latimer Probs a daft question but have you ever looked at your ELO underdog lays and thought about backing the fave from the start? If you expect them to come back into the game 0-1 down then surely there is value in backing at the beginning judging by the strike rate? or am i way off?
Not a daft question at all. I have been doing that for a while. There is always a team who beats you though and sets you back. I use this strategy for small odds as it satisfies “the gambler “ In me. Leeds were the latest team to set me back drawing with bottom team Luton.
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@ryan-carruthers actually started tracking from yesterday! Next stage in development
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@sam-maccuaig Have you tracked the first goal time on these?
You might find that if there isn't a goal scored in the first 20mins you can get a better price giving you more value
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@john-hurst my ELO backs are similar, I take the ratings and look for a home favourite, +8 difference in league position and a 300+ ELO difference then back from start (unless there are concerns like Liverpool today). Strike rate is around 91%, so anything over 1.1 is value but I generally don’t take odds below 1.2. Current yeild is about 15%
