The road to full time

Finn Kristensen

@darri Agree with that approach. Once we start relaxing in some parts, we are basically moving away from the system and are letting personal judgment/subjective opinions take over - and I, for one, have long since accepted that any "gut feelings" etc. is a sure way for me to lose money.

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@gary-brown said in The road to full time:

I have also done the sdame filter but for strong away sides.

Basically same filter but for away team to score 80% in H1 rather than home team scoring 80% in half one.

I was wondering if this is something you want to run alongside your FHG filter which focuses upon strong home favs scoring in the first half.

could be an angle, im sticking to home teams tho, even with heavy favs at home odds wise, when you go to FHG markets they still are priced fairly which is where i believe my edge is

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@gary-brown just checked that brentford game misses our filter because charlton dont meet the criteria. Im very strict with it, i can see brentford are very consistent at home for FHGs, but i wont be changing because that then leads me to allow other games in down the line. So for me this still wont qualify.

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@darri said in The road to full time:

@gary-brown yeah i think you have the wrong scope to the filter bud, you have it at 10 i have it at 5

thanks I just changed it. What's the difference between 5 and 10 mate.

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I have also done the sdame filter but for strong away sides.

Basically same filter but for away team to score 80% in H1 rather than home team scoring 80% in half one.

I was wondering if this is something you want to run alongside your FHG filter which focuses upon strong home favs scoring in the first half.

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@gary-brown yeah i think you have the wrong scope to the filter bud, you have it at 10 i have it at 5

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@darri said in The road to full time:

@gary-brown none for today, i was expecting it to be because the data feed was needing updated but seems like there isnt any qualifying today, like i said could be a sign covid is taking affect on stats

I got Brentford down from the feed mate. Do you include championship in your filter?

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@gary-brown none for today, i was expecting it to be because the data feed was needing updated but seems like there isnt any qualifying today, like i said could be a sign covid is taking affect on stats

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hi Darri have you got any matches on the FHG filter today mate?

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Quiet so far this past week, not alot of games qualifying or even getting on the filter. Even with a fairly busy day today very little in terms of games popping up. Surely a sign that things are changing and that long term stats are being affected by this post covid effects. Very much feel like treating the initial restart as if its a brand new season, not quite to that extreme but treading more carefully with that in mind.

I have been testing a new strategy, once that has reached the required data cap i will post an update on it, all going well should be ready end of week. Its definitely a market iv not tackled well before but i think iv spotted a nice edge. In fact itll be a good one to show because overall just basing it off the filters its currently losing, yet when we look at it from another angle its a biggie!! Will work well in line with the same topic of the FHG project we have in finding out how to go from idea-strategy

Matt Wood

Excellent stuff, thanks Darri

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Leagues, (top division of each)

australia, belguim, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england (championship also), france, germany, italy, japan (might get rid due to timing of games), holland, norway, poland, portugal, scotland, slovakia, slovenia, south korea (might get rid of this league due to timing o matches), spain, sweden, switz, turkey, mls

These leagues provide enough liquidity for a FHG trade to be placed, @Matt-Wood i dont discourage lower league trading it just wont be an option when your bank grows so no point doing it now if it wont work later. Get the strategy working from solid base then as we grow there wont be an issue with getting our trades on. Lower leagues are also harder to judge in my mind, hence why bookies offer less markets for them because they themselves have no clue.

Matt Wood

ahhhh ok thanks. In your experience then is it better to avoid 'lesser' leagues?

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@matt-wood said in The road to full time:

Mind if I ask why you would not include the game at Amstetten today (05/07) in the FHG project. I included it on my 'follow along' spreadsheet due to the away team fighting for relegation avoidance. I am sure you have some reason I have missed that would mean not including it. Thanks in advance.

Its not one of the leagues on the filter bud, only the top leagues in the nations i posted apart from English Championship are used

Matt Wood

Mind if I ask why you would not include the game at Amstetten today (05/07) in the FHG project. I included it on my 'follow along' spreadsheet due to the away team fighting for relegation avoidance. I am sure you have some reason I have missed that would mean not including it. Thanks in advance.

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@will-b looks interesting data to be had there mate, im a control freak with trading so ill keep this manual, but i 100% would recommend anyone who doesnt want to do it manually to use this.

@Gary-Brown Trust me im looking iv yet to find anything that screams out to me. I have been trading over on the outright markets. Go have a look at the outright thread, ill be looking to latch onto a few there. But wont be including them on this thread. Also past 2 days iv only had 2 games show on the filter for LTD/LCS neither fit my further research criteria.

I see traders always trading each and everyday, hunting for trades, stop! if your strategy relies on you needing to make loads of trades to profit, then maybe read some of my posts because ill never advocate that approach. The trades come to you. Please keep to the PRE-INPLAY-PRICE model. I right now only have 2 strategies and they both evolve around late goals, so i rely heavily on this. Im not saying the process/model works for every strategy it wont but for 2nd half goals its easy to use over and over again to keep you focused on making sure your going into a trade for the right reasons.

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Cant wait to see you trading again Darri and too learn from you and see how its done.

It seems like ages.

Finn Kristensen

@will-b Interesting site, Will! Never heard of it before. It's difficult to tell if the model works but the theoretic side seems well thought through.

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Hi @darri thanks for all your posts it's really great to see the process you follow. So far what you have done is similar to the approach I try to take but I have to admit I have struggled to take strategies from this stage to the point of being established and profitable so I'm really interested to see how you develop it further.

You mention that at this stage of the season it's important to check whether teams have anything to play for and it reminded me of this free data set which I have used a bit in the past:

https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/soccer-spi

You and others might have already seen it but it's a ratings system called SPI which attempts to do a similar thing to the BTC ELO ratings but it also includes an "importance rating" for the home and away team out of 100. The higher this number is the more important the match is to that team. I've not used it this year yet but it in the past I have used it to dismiss any games where the team or teams I need to perform well have low importance ratings (I think I went with less than 50 although this does eliminate a lot of games at this stage of the season).

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Iv been looking at this FHG filter. I really want this to be the final round of tweaking the filter. In line with that i want to make some quick changes. This isnt reactionary to any of the trades, more a sloppy decision in the first place. Based on what the filter was before we had the H1 goal ov 0.5 set to 8 and then home scored 80%. What iv just spotted from looking back at some of these games is there is an inconsistency in the stats we are selecting. The way i have it setup if the home team have 100% FHG but away team only 60% then its still showing up. This has cost us a bit in both batches.

Example: atalanta had a 100% FHG last 5, whereas napoli only 60%. This goes against what we have been trying to find. The sweet spot is 80% for both.

To rectify this here is the tight filter going forward:

We should see far less games popping up. So by adding away H1 ov 0.5 =>80% we now make this a tight 80% min probability chance. So in theory our min odds are 1.25, these wont be the odds when we compare the strike rate however, ill explain this in the next update when we start looking at odds.

Im sorry for a partial misjudgement. As a result and because i want this to be a a plug and play filter for members in the future (after testing) iv wiped the spreadsheet and will be starting the new batch starting now! With this in mind i can answer a couple of questions that have been asked by members.

We are still at the data collection phase. Im making tweaks to the filter and seeing how that affects the strike rate on a broad market level. We arent looking at odds yet. Once we have the data of another 100 games we see our strike rate. We then compare it to the last batch we tested (see further down the blog) and see if we have improved overall. If we have, we then see our strike rate and work out minimum odds.
At the same time looking at goal times. We factor in goal times because average price are only available certain times of a game. So for example is 1.4/1.5/1.6 available before 5/10/15/20 mins. That pat is more quality of life for later as right now we arent tracking odds. But the actual data collecting of this is to see when most goals are being scored. We want to be building a strategy around that and finding good trends.
Stricter selections = teams need to still be playing for something. season is coming to an end, a team needs to either be fighting for title, europe, promotion, playoffs, relegation. If the home team does not match any of those then we do not trade. For that ill be posting what games pop up in advance.
Leagues: the summer leagues have only just started. More are starting later this month. They will start to pop up on the filter in the next couple of weeks. Be patient. These leagues are typcially very good for FHGs historically so dont panic if you dont see any trades on the filter for a couple of days. We are picking quality not quantity. You are following the wrong type of trader if your here for that.

These questions will be answered far better at the next update after 100 games have been paper tested. Batch 2 is always the hardest and longest because you zoning in and less games qualify, you also arent being active in the market, but its worth it trust me.
These changes are a now going to make our filter tighter and to make sure this is the last round of mass changes. I really want to make sure this is a thoroughly well tested filter/strategy for all members. I promise this is the only time we will be making such rash changes. Hopefully you can see why these changes are needed if not please ask questions.