The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Simji]

Valur v akranes only under 2.5 I'll be on today.

40% - of the last 5 games have been 0-0 at HT
8% of games had a goal in first 10 minutes 4% in between 11-20

[A Former User]

Hoping to do 4 Goal Correct Score trades in both the Blue Weiss Linz & Liefering games later... However liquidity will need to pick up before going in as odds are currently too low... Unfortunately fun stakes only as liquidity is always low in the Austrian Erste leagues but the Austrians do like their goals lol

[A Former User]

@john-hurst wonderful! Cheers John!

[Richard Latimer]

I'm using Evernote to the full extent today. Getting organised.

That's it. I'm signing out until much later. Happy Trails all!

[James Woodroffe]

@stuart-capstick I like Atletico also mate for a 2HG especially if 0-0 at HT. Dunno why I left it off my list but it’s on my radar.

[A Former User]

Today:
03/07/20 21:00 Spain Laliga Atl. Madrid v Mallorca LTD/Lay away if 0-1

Tomorrow:
04/07/20 10:00 South Korea K League 1 Ulsan Hyundai v Incheon LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 14:00 Belarus Vysshaya Liga BATE v Energetik-BGU LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 15:00 England Premier League Manchester United v Bournemouth Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 16:15 Italy Serie A Juventus v Torino LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 17:15 Switzerland Super League Basel v Xamax LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 19:00 Turkey Super Lig Antalyaspor v Basaksehir LTD
04/07/20 19:30 Greece Super League OFI Crete v PAOK LTD
04/07/20 20:00 England Premier League Chelsea v Watford LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 20:05 Croatia 1. Hnl Lok. Zagreb v Zapresic Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 20:45 Italy Serie A Lazio v AC Milan LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 21:15 Portugal Primeira Liga Benfica v Boavista LTD/Lay away if 0-1
04/07/20 21:30 Portugal Primeira Liga Braga v Aves LTD/Lay away if 0-1

All potentials depending on live stats

[Richard Latimer]

These are a stab in the dark at low low prices. If any go 0-2 down I will potentially make a short priced lay. I won't do this if there's been a red card though. All should be playing for something. Any go 0-1 down I'll try and hunt out any negative team news in anticipation of them going 0-2 down:

[Richard Latimer]

Still monitoring these and if the inplay stats are really good when/if they fall behind I may lay the away side. Not just jumping in two footed though.

Also, I have checked just about everywhere I can think of and no negative team news. Both sides pretty comfortable mid table in Portugal also, but again I'll go by the inplay stats for now.

[Ryan]

great minds @stuart-capstick

[Stuart Capstick]

Not really very much I like today.

However, Atletico Madrid Mallorca could be a potential SHG LTD/LCS.

Looking at the data, both teams need to win to either secure Euro places/prevent relegation.
Atletico tend to score SH, if they haven't scored FH. Mallorca tends to concede SH. Atletico's top attacking players all seem fit and eligible so far. Mallorca's top scorer looks to be suspended and they have a couple of defenders out injured or suspended.

Will look to enter around 60 mins if 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1 at HT.

[Ryan]

Looking through the games now, not much really screaming out to me with the ratings stuff I've been working on.

Will keep an eye on Atletico Madrid if 0-0 at HT for a LCS potentially.

Some bits on my filters - but you already knew that

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Are there any reliable sites anyone uses for getting team news such as the Dinamo Brest COVID scenario etc?

This may be of interest for basic injuries/suspensions.

https://injuriesandsuspensions.com/

[Richard Latimer]

I've spent a bit of time going through these this morning:

No obvious team news or reason to stay out of Zalgiris
K. Oslo have a clean bill of health
No team news on Liefering anywhere and they still have 5 games so should still be fighting
No negative team news on Atletico and preview I found suggest they will be going full steam ahead as per norm

Only area of slight concern is Brest. If they are getting a shoeing and they fall behind 1-0 I'll leave it but will keep going back to see if anything has changed.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Are there any reliable sites anyone uses for getting team news such as the Dinamo Brest COVID scenario etc?

I'm just looking on twitter, googling it and also googling team names with preview just to see if I can pick up anything obvious that I might have overlooked previously.

[A Former User]

Are there any reliable sites anyone uses for getting team news such as the Dinamo Brest COVID scenario etc?

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer whatever you’ve seen i think others have n all mate. Price on Brest has ballooned.. check out the graph on BF

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer red cards are football's kryptonite! just nothing you can do to anticipate them

@Martin-Futter Not sure how reliable this is but in the course of trying to do more pre-match research I've just read that Brest have a whole bunch of players showing symptoms for Covid and wanted to rearrange match.

Not ruling it out entirely but one to monitor perhaps before jumping in two footed!

Also I see you don't have Zalgiris or Oslo, is this because you a) stay away from Lithuania and b) are not betting on summer leagues yet?

Can't find team news on Zalgiris but they've not lost this fixture in 18 attempts. Oslo also apparently have full squad to choose from with no injury worries.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer red cards are football's kryptonite! just nothing you can do to anticipate them

@Martin-Futter Not sure how reliable this is but in the course of trying to do more pre-match research I've just read that Brest have a whole bunch of players showing symptoms for Covid and wanted to rearrange match.

Not ruling it out entirely but one to monitor perhaps before jumping in two footed!

[James Woodroffe]

Morning guys going to monitor two matches in Austria today for a LTD or a late goal if 1-0 or 0-1 at HT

Liefering v Lustenau LTD or LCS if 1-0 0-1
Linz v Horn LTD
Will also be monitoring Charlton v Millwall. O1.5 is currently 1.53 lead up stats don’t point to goals but both have plenty to play for.

Here’s to a green Friday

[Martin]

@richard-latimer red cards are football's kryptonite! just nothing you can do to anticipate them