The BTC Football Trading Thread

Akiva Anderson

I'm expecting a SHG in each of the K League 1 matches. Both currently 0-0

Matt Wood

@john-hurst Yea it is not like European football, guess it must influenced by the different culture.

? Offline

anyone else find the k-leagues hard to read/watch? The results might be fairly predictable but in -play it seems all over the place. Goals come out of nowhere usually. Im also noticing the amount of long distance goals- not sure if its cause the goalkeepers are slightly shorter or if they're just no good

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Note: Be very careful trading the goal markets in the leagues that have restarted, they may now have to be considered as new seasons and as such only traded in exceptional circumstances. The ELO rating system seems to be the only one not effected by this and has performed amazingly well. Inplay stats will be a more important indicator than ever. If in any doubt just avoid that match completely.

Football Selections - Exceptional day again for the Ratings lays these have been outstanding!

ELO Strong team come back system (The stronger rated team is indicated as either the home or away team in the table below.) Full explanation here:https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

10am Jeonbuk v Gwanju - Home

2pm Belshina v BATE - Away

3.30pm Lokomotive Moscow v Orenburg - Home

4pm Salzburg v Wolfsberger - Home

4pm Brno v Chrudim - Home

4pm Katowice v Garbarnia - Home

6pm Plzen v Jalbonec - Home

6pm Shakhtyor Soligorsk v Rukh Brest - Home

6pm Krasnodar v Dynamo Moscow - Home

6.30pm Sturm Graz v LASK Linz - Away

7pm Galatasaray v Gaziantep - Home

7.30pm Maribor v Rudar - Home

Ryan's Betgreen: Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy

None today

Ryan's Split Stake: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-over-15-goals-strategy-ryans-split-stake

Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Vysehrad Zizkov
Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Sokolov Jihlava
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

First half goal Filter - Frode's adapted: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-first-half-goal-strategy-frodes-adapted

Turkey Super Lig 21/06/2020 16:30:00 Kasimpasa Fenerbahce
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

Back a late goal split stake when scoreline is drawing - Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/late-goal-split-stake-only-when-drawing

Denmark 1st Division 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Vejle Hvidovre
Poland Ekstraklasa 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Cracovia Jagiellonia
Turkey 1. Lig 21/06/2020 15:30:00 Umraniyespor Karagumruk
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg

@Martin-Futter Don't trust the Ruskies haha!!

Or the Slovenians for that matter.

@Martin-Futter More or less the same as yours but with the pesky Russians and Slovenians removed plus the the newer leagues put in. Never had a problem with these yet so no reason to change now.

0_1592732255060_0b2d16f5-422f-49b3-a677-7510dbd084f5-image.png

Oh yeah, I removed Poland 2 as well

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Note: Be very careful trading the goal markets in the leagues that have restarted, they may now have to be considered as new seasons and as such only traded in exceptional circumstances. The ELO rating system seems to be the only one not effected by this and has performed amazingly well. Inplay stats will be a more important indicator than ever. If in any doubt just avoid that match completely.

Football Selections - Exceptional day again for the Ratings lays these have been outstanding!

ELO Strong team come back system (The stronger rated team is indicated as either the home or away team in the table below.) Full explanation here:https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

10am Jeonbuk v Gwanju - Home

2pm Belshina v BATE - Away

3.30pm Lokomotive Moscow v Orenburg - Home

4pm Salzburg v Wolfsberger - Home

4pm Brno v Chrudim - Home

4pm Katowice v Garbarnia - Home

6pm Plzen v Jalbonec - Home

6pm Shakhtyor Soligorsk v Rukh Brest - Home

6pm Krasnodar v Dynamo Moscow - Home

6.30pm Sturm Graz v LASK Linz - Away

7pm Galatasaray v Gaziantep - Home

7.30pm Maribor v Rudar - Home

Ryan's Betgreen: Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy

None today

Ryan's Split Stake: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-over-15-goals-strategy-ryans-split-stake

Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Vysehrad Zizkov
Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Sokolov Jihlava
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

First half goal Filter - Frode's adapted: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-first-half-goal-strategy-frodes-adapted

Turkey Super Lig 21/06/2020 16:30:00 Kasimpasa Fenerbahce
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

Back a late goal split stake when scoreline is drawing - Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/late-goal-split-stake-only-when-drawing

Denmark 1st Division 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Vejle Hvidovre
Poland Ekstraklasa 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Cracovia Jagiellonia
Turkey 1. Lig 21/06/2020 15:30:00 Umraniyespor Karagumruk
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg

@Martin-Futter Don't trust the Ruskies haha!!

Or the Slovenians for that matter.

Martin

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Note: Be very careful trading the goal markets in the leagues that have restarted, they may now have to be considered as new seasons and as such only traded in exceptional circumstances. The ELO rating system seems to be the only one not effected by this and has performed amazingly well. Inplay stats will be a more important indicator than ever. If in any doubt just avoid that match completely.

Football Selections - Exceptional day again for the Ratings lays these have been outstanding!

ELO Strong team come back system (The stronger rated team is indicated as either the home or away team in the table below.) Full explanation here:https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

10am Jeonbuk v Gwanju - Home

2pm Belshina v BATE - Away

3.30pm Lokomotive Moscow v Orenburg - Home

4pm Salzburg v Wolfsberger - Home

4pm Brno v Chrudim - Home

4pm Katowice v Garbarnia - Home

6pm Plzen v Jalbonec - Home

6pm Shakhtyor Soligorsk v Rukh Brest - Home

6pm Krasnodar v Dynamo Moscow - Home

6.30pm Sturm Graz v LASK Linz - Away

7pm Galatasaray v Gaziantep - Home

7.30pm Maribor v Rudar - Home

Ryan's Betgreen: Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy

None today

Ryan's Split Stake: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-over-15-goals-strategy-ryans-split-stake

Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Vysehrad Zizkov
Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Sokolov Jihlava
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

First half goal Filter - Frode's adapted: Full explanation here -https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/btc-first-half-goal-strategy-frodes-adapted

Turkey Super Lig 21/06/2020 16:30:00 Kasimpasa Fenerbahce
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz

Back a late goal split stake when scoreline is drawing - Full explanation here - https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/late-goal-split-stake-only-when-drawing

Denmark 1st Division 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Vejle Hvidovre
Poland Ekstraklasa 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Cracovia Jagiellonia
Turkey 1. Lig 21/06/2020 15:30:00 Umraniyespor Karagumruk
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Rapid Vienna Hartberg

Ryan

My split stake has some on today guys and those that enjoyed the 70mins plus games I will put them below.....

0_1592725854735_0f3e306f-45ce-4d70-a6fa-573bb22c8f34-image.png Country League Date Home Away Total Goals 70 - 90+ Total Goals H2 Time v Total Avg Goals Back Odds
Estonia Esiliiga 21/06/2020 11:00:00 Levadia U21 Parnu JK Vaprus 32 55 58.1818181818182 4.25 1.58
Estonia Esiliiga 21/06/2020 11:00:00 Nomme Utd JK Jarve 18 36 50 4.62 1.50
Germany 3. Liga 21/06/2020 12:00:00 Meppen Unterhaching 23 42 54.7619047619048 3.4 1.55
Poland Division 2 21/06/2020 14:00:00 Gryf Wejherowo Leczna 19 36 52.7777777777778 3.15 1.53
Bulgaria Parva Liga 21/06/2020 14:30:00 Ludogorets Beroe 19 31 61.2903225806452 3.15 1.61
Faroe Islands Premier League 21/06/2020 15:00:00 IF Fuglafjordur B36 Torshavn 7 13 53.8461538461538 4.29 1.54
Poland Division 2 21/06/2020 15:00:00 Blekitni Stargard Pogon Siedlce 21 36 58.3333333333333 3.5 1.58
Faroe Islands Premier League 21/06/2020 15:00:00 Klaksvik Skala Itrottarfelag 11 18 61.1111111111111 3.88 1.61
Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Prostejov Dukla Prague 18 35 51.4285714285714 3.1 1.51
Sweden Division 1 - Norra 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Sandvikens Karlstad 25 40 62.5 3.2 1.63
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Salzburg AC Wolfsberger 23 40 57.5 3.9 1.58
Czech Republic Division 2 21/06/2020 16:00:00 Brno Chrudim 15 29 51.7241379310345 3.05 1.52
England Premier League 21/06/2020 16:15:00 Aston Villa Chelsea 19 35 54.2857142857143 3.25 1.54
Poland Ekstraklasa 21/06/2020 16:30:00 Legia Slask Wroclaw 22 43 51.1627906976744 3.15 1.51
Turkey Super Lig 21/06/2020 16:30:00 Kasimpasa Fenerbahce 17 33 51.5151515151515 3.25 1.52
Poland Division 1 21/06/2020 16:40:00 Warta Poznan Sandecja Nowy S. 25 35 71.4285714285714 3.05 1.71
Slovenia Prva Liga 21/06/2020 17:00:00 Domzale NK Olimpija Ljubljana 19 34 55.8823529411765 3 1.56
Sweden Division 1 - Norra 21/06/2020 18:00:00 Sylvia Karlslunds 21 41 51.219512195122 3.65 1.51
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 21/06/2020 18:30:00 Sturm Graz LASK Linz 21 39 53.8461538461538 3.25 1.54
Hungary Otp Bank Liga 21/06/2020 20:05:00 Debrecen DVTK 22 43 51.1627906976744 3.05 1.51

Simji

@matt-wood this happened to me in the United match too cash out wouldn't work a few times then I could get anything matched. So I let it run as a free bet sadly United didn't get the second for a good green

Simji

@sam-maccuaig I'm just catching up on all yesterday's post. I tend to find the under 0.5 market doesn't move so quickly. I could always lay the over at low liability.

At present when I get time to trade I do the under 2.5 and 1.5 markets. Always cash out the 1.5 at a certain time but if in the 2.5 market it's nil nil at that point I take the liability out and let it run till half time. Be interested what you find out about the 0.5 markets

Ryan

Nothing from me today, taking the day off.

Got a few things to sort out around house and visit a couple of gardens! Then watch Liverpool

Martin

@richard-latimer I just use the profit to relay. Both were heavy odds on last night and the liability is so low that it made sense. These are outstanding mate, can’t believe how many make a comeback! Purple patch for sure and hope they continue, thanks for sharing.

? Offline

Looks like I missed some action today. 2.5Pts green for me today. Watford v Leicester LTD 1.5% liability for 2.5% green. Spent the rest of the day de-weeding the allotment. Deffo old before my time!!

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

AEK again! 6/6 now!

When I've cashed I'm going to have to start looking at these again post 70 minute mark

Martin

AEK again! 6/6 now!

? Offline

Catch you all later

? Offline

LOL... Red card in Austria @ 0-0 then 4 goals with a BTTS 1.5pts green... Like a nice quick trading day... Unbelievable!!! but fortunate no doubt

Martin

@richard-latimer shame mate just had a 1.21 lay winner double dip on it! Amazing strategy this

James Woodroffe

Done for the day. Gotta check but I think I’m just under a point green. Had a couple of losers early doors with a FHG and Over 1.5 in Denmark and another LTD in Poland with Wiska and 0-0. Dragged it back by jumping on a couple of @Keith-Anderson calls and went 3-3 with @Ryan-Carruthers after 70 mins. In fact I don’t think any of my selections for the day ended up qualifying, the score was either wrong or the odds were not worth the effort. (Will check properly later but pretty sure) Laid Wigan at 1.02 and a Huddersfield goal didn’t seem that unlikely when I did on 75. 10 days left to salvage the month as it’s been a little up and down with some 0-0’s but happy today cause in the past I would have traded the matches that I didn’t today so that’s a plus for sure. Again big thanks for @Martin-Futter for his write up last night. It definitely helps when you have a plan and can say to yourself “If you were doing this pro you wouldn’t be trading this match.” Which is where we all wanna head.
Until tomorrow gents and a green Sunday. Speaking of which apparently it’s Fathers Day so happy Fathers Day to all the BTC Dads. I say apparently cause it’s not Fathers Day in Oz till September and I only remembered cause it got pointed out to me that better half and junior forgot so I guess they can go line up somewhere and leave me in peace to trade.

? Offline

@martin-futter My new SH goal filters doing well... Seems to be where the goals are more consistent at the mo

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Be weary that Juniors had a red card hence why they went 1-0 down

I didn't have that one