Which filter to choose?
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Guys, any experience with the filters on the stats section? Which one has the lowest variance? ROI generated for you over-lets say-last thousand bets? All of them has around a %80 strike rate I reckon..
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@keith-anderson said in Which filter to choose?:
In truth, I don't know what my strike rate is. All I know is that I make money every month. I've started keeping a blog of my trades, so hopefully I'll find out more. I don't trade every game on my filter, sometimes the odds are too high and sometimes I don't like the in-play stats.
Also, the filter is based on '3 goals or more'. There are plenty of matches that I trade that are not of that filter. I only really LTD - that is all I do. I don't get involved in horses, nfl, cricket or tennis. I also don't back or lay the goals market. I don't need to.
What are you looking for on the in-play stats? SOT? How lively the games is?
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@ryan-carruthers What is the best mindset book that you can recommend?
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@keith-anderson I think that you answer this question brilliantly.
I know that you have done some exceptional things with this filter but its down to the person, how you control the management of yourself in trading has always been key for me.
Trading is as easy or as complicated as you make it, I love the LTD myself as well because its simple and with research on the matches it still works
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@james-scott said in Which filter to choose?:
@keith-anderson Ok. What would be the number one thing to pay attention to from those things?
For me it has to be bankroll management. When you place a trade look at your liability. If you are unhappy with losing that amount then you are trading too much. I aim to make 3% of my bankroll each day - it is bloody difficult to do. If your bankroll is £100 then you only have to make between £3 - £7 per day as you progress through the month. Results are below
Month 1: Starting bankroll £100. On Day 30 your bankroll could be £246
Month 2: Starting bankroll £200. Day 30 total could be £485
Month 3: Starting bankroll £400. Day 30 total could be £971
Month 4: Starting bankroll £800. Day 30 total could be £1949
Month 5: Starting bankroll £1600. Day 30 total could be £3800
Month 6: Starting bankroll £3200. Day 30 total could be £7767The usual, don't chase losses. I also don't like having two trades on at the same time (In case I have a bad day).
This is simple. There is no need to complicate things at all. You are LTD at HT - there can only be two outcomes! There is going to be a second half goal or there isn't. Probability is 50% before you even look at stats.
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@keith-anderson Ok. What would be the number one thing to pay attention to from those things?
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@david-friend said in Which filter to choose?:
@keith-anderson Hi Keith, do you use any of the paid in-play scanners/stats sites or just use the free sites when you decide to LTD?
The only in-play stats I use in Bet365. My stats come from BTC. I’m only really looking at Bet365 to see if the game is lively
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@keith-anderson Hi Keith, do you use any of the paid in-play scanners/stats sites or just use the free sites when you decide to LTD?
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@James-Scott in the past I’ve used as much as 25% of my bankroll on a trade. It didn’t end well. I do try to make around 3% of my bankroll each day. Of course I don’t trade each day, so this is an average. I’ve had about 4 losses in a row, but I’ve also had 13 winners in a row. It’s amazing how little you have to trade or make each day. The problem is we are normally in such a rush to get there.
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@james-scott said in Which filter to choose?:
@keith-anderson I understand.. Would you say that following your filter alone is enough to make a profit, or you need to look at the stats and the game-play too? Worst losing run with your filter? Are you percentage staking your bank?
I’ll be honest with you. I don’t think following anyone’s filter is enough to make you profit. A lot of it comes down to you. Your bankroll management, your staking plan etc. I don’t like LTD at odds of 3.0 or above. That doesn’t mean I don’t do it, after all I am a risk taker.
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@keith-anderson I understand.. Would you say that following your filter alone is enough to make a profit, or you need to look at the stats and the game-play too? Worst losing run with your filter? Are you percentage staking your bank?
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@james-scott said in Which filter to choose?:
@keith-anderson Strike rate is the percentage of success using a large sample size.. ie. how many times from a hundred there were a goal if you LTD half time using a filter.
How many times your stake do you make in profit on average in a month?(if not a secret)
I know what a strike rate is...I just don't know what my strike rate is. This is mostly because I don't keep records. I don't use automation and I trade mostly on my mobile phone.
I've been trading for nearly two years and I'm probably in a position were I can go pro. The main obstacle is my wife, I had a gambling issue when I was younger. I can't blame her for being against me trading full-time. I am hoping, through time, that she changes her mind.
I don't really want to say how much I make per monthm but I do now make more than my full-time job. In just over 12 months trading has paid for my wife, daughter and I to holiday in Florida (we flew business class), Lapland, a mediterranean cruise and Disneyland Paris.
I still regard myself as a trading novice and I am worried about being a one trick pony. However, for now and probably for the first time in my life, I am truly happy. Finding BTC was the best thing I've ever done (even though I was close to quitting at the start)!
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@keith-anderson Strike rate is the percentage of success using a large sample size.. ie. how many times from a hundred there were a goal if you LTD half time using a filter.
How many times your stake do you make in profit on average in a month?(if not a secret)
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In truth, I don't know what my strike rate is. All I know is that I make money every month. I've started keeping a blog of my trades, so hopefully I'll find out more. I don't trade every game on my filter, sometimes the odds are too high and sometimes I don't like the in-play stats.
Also, the filter is based on '3 goals or more'. There are plenty of matches that I trade that are not of that filter. I only really LTD - that is all I do. I don't get involved in horses, nfl, cricket or tennis. I also don't back or lay the goals market. I don't need to.
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@james-scott nope! But I don't track Keith's SR, I know that he is doing exceptionally well month on month and sure he will elaborate when he gets on here and see's that he's been tagged
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@james-scott I monitored Olivers LCS filter last wknd and it had 80 percent from approx 95 games.
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Anyone is shy to talk numbers here? Lol
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@james-scott Also interested if you rather LTD or LCS?
