The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Martin]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Nap Lays:

Small loss on the place yesterday.

13:25 NmkR
DYAMI

19:05 Ling
BREAK THE SILENCE

Profit on place and win yesterday.

Win is £111.60 up and Place £22.26 up to £10 lay stakes.

Today's nap lays:

20th June 13:15 Asct MORE BEAUTIFUL

Walkthrough video here:
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-rubbish-tipsters-selections

[Richard Latimer]

All these potential inplay lays for today. I've marked out the 2* horses that won last time out as possible ones to avoid.

[Richard Latimer]

Only one qualifier today and that was a loser/winner of race.

Jungle Jane in Tipperary.

Will post up for Sat later/maybe morning.

[John Folan]

@martin-dodd To be fair ive struggled dobbing, trobbing not so much of a problem, but the last couple of days have been iffy. They will turn tho. These are consistent over time. They do struggle at festivals though.

Here's tomorrows. 3.5-20 odds range

[A Former User]

Poor again. Two more points down the toilet

I've canned DOBs for the time being...before lockdown the results were reasonable...since lockdown it's been horrid.
Still tracking them but not wasting my money until the show signs of recovery.

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Trobs 3.5-20 odds range

Poor again. Two more points down the toilet

[Martin]

Nap Lays:

Small loss on the place yesterday.

13:25 NmkR
DYAMI

19:05 Ling
BREAK THE SILENCE

[John Folan]

Trobs 3.5-20 odds range

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Fri Potential Inplay Lays:

Noticed an awful lot of 2* coming up and on top fo that noticed these had only gone 9 wins, 5 losses for pretty much break even @ 2.80.

I then decided to do a little analysing of results so far to see if I could spot a pattern.

2* are performing well in the following circumstances:

When the horse has won none of the last 5 (4 wins, 1 loss)
When the horse has won 1 from the last 5 but crucially did not win their last (5 wins, 2 losses)

I only have 2 results for this happening but both won their next race too. Food for thought and a possible exclusion later on.

[Richard Latimer]

Fri Potential Inplay Lays:

[Richard Latimer]

Almost a great day on these but Nataleena spoilt things. I suppose if 3 were matched before though rather than the recorded 2, that's good.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Matewan in 17:00 Newmarket was a rarity. SP of 2/1 but BSP of 2.03. I've seen higher BSP's before but by that much??? Crazy!!!

This was because Fox Vardy was Withdrawn at the start - 30p rule 4 on the 2/1.

Cheers but how come the SP wasn't reduced as well then? Does that mean you wouldn't have known the true BSP until race finished? ie, would have been easy to lay it at 2.80 in-running not knowing the price was reduced. Sorry for stupid questions but my knowleadge on racing is patchy.

I know it's a bit random when this happened there was a race in Tampa during lockdown where the BSP recorded on timeform was not the same as it first appeared as the race started.

The SP is the price gathered from bookmakers final prices - so if a horse is withdrawn close to the off there is a possibilty that the market cannot be reformed in time. In these cases the SP returned will be the prices prior to withdrawal but subject to a rule 4 depending on the price of the withdrawn horse. Betfair SP was different in this case as they had removed the runner prior to the start of the race - so the BSP was a true reflection of the correct price minus the withdrawn horse. Occasionally you will have to be careful on betfair if they don't remove the withdrawn horse when going in-play as the price available in-play will be subject to a % deduction once the withdrawn horse is confirmed as NR and betfair have settled accordingly. Hope this helps / make sense?

That's obv what happened last time. Thanks.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Matewan in 17:00 Newmarket was a rarity. SP of 2/1 but BSP of 2.03. I've seen higher BSP's before but by that much??? Crazy!!!

This was because Fox Vardy was Withdrawn at the start - 30p rule 4 on the 2/1.

Cheers but how come the SP wasn't reduced as well then? Does that mean you wouldn't have known the true BSP until race finished? ie, would have been easy to lay it at 2.80 in-running not knowing the price was reduced. Sorry for stupid questions but my knowleadge on racing is patchy.

I know it's a bit random when this happened there was a race in Tampa during lockdown where the BSP recorded on timeform was not the same as it first appeared as the race started.

The SP is the price gathered from bookmakers final prices - so if a horse is withdrawn close to the off there is a possibilty that the market cannot be reformed in time. In these cases the SP returned will be the prices prior to withdrawal but subject to a rule 4 depending on the price of the withdrawn horse. Betfair SP was different in this case as they had removed the runner prior to the start of the race - so the BSP was a true reflection of the correct price minus the withdrawn horse. Occasionally you will have to be careful on betfair if they don't remove the withdrawn horse when going in-play as the price available in-play will be subject to a % deduction once the withdrawn horse is confirmed as NR and betfair have settled accordingly. Hope this helps / make sense?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Matewan in 17:00 Newmarket was a rarity. SP of 2/1 but BSP of 2.03. I've seen higher BSP's before but by that much??? Crazy!!!

This was because Fox Vardy was Withdrawn at the start - 30p rule 4 on the 2/1.

Cheers but how come the SP wasn't reduced as well then? Does that mean you wouldn't have known the true BSP until race finished? ie, would have been easy to lay it at 2.80 in-running not knowing the price was reduced. Sorry for stupid questions but my knowleadge on racing is patchy.

I know it's a bit random when this happened there was a race in Tampa during lockdown where the BSP recorded on timeform was not the same as it first appeared as the race started.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Matewan in 17:00 Newmarket was a rarity. SP of 2/1 but BSP of 2.03. I've seen higher BSP's before but by that much??? Crazy!!!

This was because Fox Vardy was Withdrawn at the start - 30p rule 4 on the 2/1.

[Richard Latimer]

Matewan in 17:00 Newmarket was a rarity. SP of 2/1 but BSP of 2.03. I've seen higher BSP's before but by that much??? Crazy!!!

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Today's Trob's. These are pretty static since the return of racing. Hopefully start moving upwards again soon. 3.5-20 odds range only: Edit: Johan and Red Treble are non runners.

2 points lost today. Yuck

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Definitely one matched in the 13:50 at Ascot, potentially 2. I saw a 2nd trade under 2.8 but for not much money. A few hundred traded at 2.88. I'll see what it says on timeform and record according to that for consistency. I guess then I need to look and see whether increasing odds any further to incorporate one more horse would be a smart move at present.

Possibly need to track them.

May track as many different price points as possible before 100 selections and then continue with only the top 3.

This is interesting. These numbers could only ever be better than what I'm recording and not worse if laying with a bot or just before the off keeping an eye on non runners). Prince Eiji definitely matched @ 2.88 for over £100.00 and a small amount even lower than that. While I'm not talking specifically about this race if it's happened today it has no doubt happened before as well.

S/r, profit, alll of it could be better than what I have. Pretty exciting as it's good enough like this.

[Richard Latimer]

Definitely one matched in the 13:50 at Ascot, potentially 2. I saw a 2nd trade under 2.8 but for not much money. A few hundred traded at 2.88. I'll see what it says on timeform and record according to that for consistency. I guess then I need to look and see whether increasing odds any further to incorporate one more horse would be a smart move at present.

Possibly need to track them.

May track as many different price points as possible before 100 selections and then continue with only the top 3.

[A Former User]

@martin-futter Am continuing to measure mate and will look to go live with small stakes as soon as my boy sets me up on his personal server... Then Bet Angel should never crash as it did when I left my laptop on battery mode lol (currently in simulation mode but proved to be very accurate)