The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mull (under 3.5 and refined)
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
We have to remember as well as mentioned above unprecedented times. I heard the commentators saying last night the impact in Germany so many away wins that you wouldn't have seen before!
I heard one of the commentators say something which resonated with me yesterday. First goal seems more important than normal at the moment as teams don't have a crowd behind them to encourage them anymore. Comoing back from a losing position may be harder than normal.
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@martin-futter I was going off the scalping strategy on your website. Enter @12 mins if no goal and exit @20. Roughly 75% and 78% if left to run. Unders galore sample isnt big enough.
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@alan-steward I can see it! It's must be weird for teams playing with no noise that really feeds off that, plus some teams as always at this point of the season have nothing to play for.
I for one hope we get the business sorted then the teams let some of the younger guns play.
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@chris-osborne Wicked. How could we present it so you got the most from it?
Yes, we are aiming to do some of the challenges monthly too so we shall have everybody doing them together.
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@martin-futter Only paper trading for around 3 weeks. I have been also been paper trading the u3.5 and u3.5 refined. Not sure if they are yours? over 200 matches so far.
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@ryan-carruthers. Sounds good, I would use it as a Tool to show me what areas I need to work on to improve as a trader so I can get where I want to be.
Maybe set myself challenges or goals around these particular stages, if measurable tracking progress although I would imagine at least 50% if not more would be intangible.
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@ryan-carruthers Yes mate and I've also noted there appears to be more SH/Late goals post COVID... I've no concrete data to back this up as previously I haven't focused on the SH goals... Mostly FHG... However after doing a bit of stat bashing last weekend I've since shifted my focus towards the SH goal market
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@martin-futter What are the issues for your unders galore on the old stats filters?
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Please note the only reason I didn't trade any of these games was because I was visiting my daughter on her bday
Not a bad selection from yesterday, out of 12 filtered games 11 delivered SH goals... The only losing one wouldn't have been traded as it was 2-0 at HT.
From the 12 games due to HT results there would have been a total of 4 games not traded which would have left a selection of 8 games to choose from... Not too shabby.
I will continue you measure this filter as it's now had a couple of decent days however as we all know these can soon turn sour.
I will look for best entry point based on a decent number of games to measure... This would ideally be 100 but let's see how things progress by 50... Maybe a weeks time
Following was yesterdays selections
Todays SH Goal Watch
**Remember these are all watch games to suit in-play stats below or personal preference
**17:30 Eintracht Frankfurt v Schalke - HT Score 1-0 - Not traded but SH goal on 50mins
17:30 Regensburg v Karlsruher - HT Score 1-0 - Not traded but SH goal on 62mins
18:00 Degerfors v Brage - HT Score 3-1 - Not traded but goal on 67mins
18:00 Elfsborg v Hammarby - HT Score 1-0 - Not traded but goal on 66mins
18:00 Osters v Norrby - HT Score 0-0 - Not traded but goal on 77mins
19:00 FC Copenhagen v Aalborg - HT Score 2-0 - Not trade and no SH goal
19:30 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln - HT Score 2-0 - Not traded but SH goal on 59mins
19:30 LASK Linz v Sturm Graz - HT Score 3-0 - Not traded but SH goal on 91mins
19:30 Dortmund v 1. FSV Mainz 05 - HT Score 0-1 - Not traded but SH goal on 49mins
19:30 FC Augsburg v Hoffenheim - HT Score 0-0 - Not traded but SH goal on 59mins
19:30 RB Leipzig v Dusseldorf - HT Score 0-0 - Not traded but goal on 60mins
20:05 Osijek v Gorica - HT Score 1-0 - Not traded but goal on 56minsLay next overs circa odds 3.5-3.0
Minimum Entry Stats;
0 Goals - 4 SOT plus good equal attacking intent
1 Goal - 7 SOT plus good equal attacking intent
1-1 - 7 SOT plus good equal attacking intent (same SOT as above but a good scoreline, although one of the most popular... Be wary!)
2-0 or 0-2 - No tradeMay update if some missing leagues return to stats software
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Clean house yesterday. 2 point profit.
- Zagreb game I got in at 60 minutes around 2-2.
- Leipzig game entered at 30 minutes and then a few times around half time.
- City game was closer to the off.
- Benfica game I traded out after they conceded the first goal and didn't get back in until Rio Ave were down to 9 men.
Only the Zagreb game made it onto my refined watch list, but the other 3 were opportunities that met fairly strong criteria, so I was following along.
I don't claim to have perfect execution or perfect price knowledge. It's just a low-risk system that works for me. Anyone who invests in shares will be able to see why this is my favourite strategy.
Straight from the Ratings, it's the following:
The Sporting game seems like the one I'll be most likely to enter. Also will be monitoring the 2 games in La Liga, and the Midget Land game in the Danish league. They just fit during the empty periods of the day, following them out of curiosity more than anything else.
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@gary-brown thanks Gary for posting this as a relatively new trader I’ll be sure to take on board some or all of these suggestions
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I was just reading about the danish league to see if lyngby had anything to play for. No idea still
Soccerway usually gives you a good idea if you look at the table.
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Just a quick thing about screen time and cutting down trades. This was probably the hardest thing i had when i started and sometimes i have to remind myself even now about these 2 things.
Cutting down trades:
Biggest change in my trading has come from this. The btc guys have a host of videos on this topic. @Martin-Futter has done some videos and blog posts as well as over on my thread iv done a guide to it too. The filters may bring up +20 games but after further research into team news, motivations etc that will cut to 10 games. Far more manageable. In terms of the amount of trades per day/week/month it doesnt really matter. I go days without picking a trade, then a few pop up. Its about the quality. Its hard to think that surely more games means i have more chance of making money but its totally counter to that. Trading is about consistency, its far easier to be consistent with a smaller range of games than with a hard to manage 20 plus strategy. Not every game will qualify, for example my strategy involves very late goals i could have 5 games to monitor yet all of them could have a goal just minutes before i plan to enter, frustrating right? no because it just never qualified, plus i wasnt wrong the game was a goal getter so im on the right idea for match selections. Im only speaking from experience not saying this would work for everyone. But iv looked around and all the pros do the same so there must be a link to that concept. Im happy to make 5/10/20% bank growth every month and then leave trading for the rest of the month to recharge. Overtrading is a huge problem. Its hard to when you have a small bank, easy for pros who make £100 per trade when your making £1. Trading isnt a get rich quick scheme, thats gambling!
Screen time:
Something i encourage all traders to do is write down a trading plan. Jot down all the games you are going to monitor, what price you would like to enter and exit. I also dont watch the whole game. If im LTD/LCS in the second half i watch from HT onwards. If im just looking for a goal ill then place my trade and then turn off the game and come back later to see if it won/lost. @Ryan-Carruthers spoke about something like this in a video once, essentially you have done all you could to find that trade, its met all your pre-during-price criteria so let it run its course.
The problem a lot of people face is the pressure with time, only going to get tighter when lockdown is lifted and people go back to work. So by doing these small things you can cut hours off screen time ad focus on the quality matches. Hope this helps anyone wanting to cut down screen time or is finding it hard too.
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@martin-walker yes it is
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@martin-futter thanks. The way they do that league sounds completely mental
How best would you guys use this resource?