The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Really poor again tonight, yet another red day. Very frustrating time at the moment. I am going to leave the laying the underdogs until leagues have settled and fitness levels are back. Decide if teams have motivation or not for a trade to be on the list. For instance I traded some Polish football at the weekend and I made the error of not knowing/checking that it was the last game of the regular season.

Mate, have a look at what I've posted below. Could be of interest. One very low risk strategy indeed.

Richard Latimer

Also, I would say that while I traded a few games today I spread myself over a few strategies and at no point ever felt stretched.

Richard Latimer

Update:

Down But Not Out:

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A costly loss in Dortmund made up for in most part with 2 niice home lays in Romania and Portugal. Despite Dortmund having nothing to play for pride is usually enough not to take a shoeing at home for teams qualifying here.

Considerably Better Than Yow:

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A return to form somewhat.

Chudrim huffed and puffed and eventually went behind despite some heavy money forcing their price in for the first 45 (one of the biggest problems I have with this is forgetting to place bet before kickoff and then sitting there trying to get matched at the original price, which didn't happen until the 2nd half in this one). So a lay of the away and quick equaliser meant I came away with small green.

Warta. Another team that went behind, lay went in on the away and they made it 1-1 quite quickly for an easy green.

Hannover went 1-0 up fairly early and I cashed immediately.

Ascoli went a goal down so laid. Then they went 2 down so re-layed. When they got one back I was able to take back half of the original outlay so half loss.

Beitar Jerusalem went up 1-0 with some tasty odds. Greened for around just under 3/4 point.

That strategy ended around 1pt up.

Fashionably Late (filter name makes more sense now as not loooking for anything before 75 mins).

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I've left Wolfsburger on here as I saw the conversation earlier with @Darri. Price is the one thing that kept me out of this one. Certainly not a post attempting to look smug but like I've said a few times in terms of my rules, before I place any 2nd half goal trade I look for average H2 over 0.5 prices on oddsportal and if it's less than 1.12 I move on. This one was 1.08.

Dortmund I may possibly have done (need to do more research on how these things tend to go with an early 2nd half goal that sends it 0-2. You would have expected Dortmund to score at least one but then watching it they were dogshit and I already had enough on the Mainz lay to consider doing anything further.

In the end all I did was the Djurgarden one which went 1-2 before I cashed out.

This is the most innteresting part of my day:

I asked the question yesterday whether anyone had considered just looking for selections that could be laid where one team goes 2-0 or 0-2 down. I wasn't specifically thinking about the powerhouses who I'm potentially already invested in on the other strategy.

I don't want duplicates of those and I don't want duplicates of the backs where the idea is one team will score and the other won't.

No, this is a whole different ball park. Potenially more even games where if one team goes 0-2 down there's just as much chance of a complete reversal in the 2nd half.

These are the games I picked out:

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Quickly became apparent this is going to work much better for teams motivated not get a shoeing at home. Initially my idea was to only lay if they went 0-2 down in the FH which is when I saw that Zaglebie were 0-2 down. I laid them @ 1.11. There's really no point in getting out fo this trade at 1-2 as was my initial idea unless you put more down. No, I think it's more of a low risk, high reward thing.

Zaglebie got one back and that I thought would be that......until they made it 2-2 right at the end and enabled a massive cash out.

Using my colour coded conditional formatting on the rest I picked out Aarhus and Ljungskile as the ones to look out for. Aarhus were 2-0 down at HT and I laid. Again small odds. No dice there and like I said, I reckon this will work better for teams at home.

Ljungskile were 0-1 down at HT so I stopped looking and only checked back later to see it was 2-3. A quick scroll down showed they went 0-2 down and got it back to 2-2 with 2 goals in 10 minutes. Ok so maybe with these it's worth looking at regardless of when they go 0-2 behind.

I imagine lay odds for Orgryte were under 1.10 considering they went behind 0-2 in the 50th minute. They were level by the 63rd.

I will certainly be doing these tomorrow and tracking from here on in.

james everard

Really poor again tonight, yet another red day. Very frustrating time at the moment. I am going to leave the laying the underdogs until leagues have settled and fitness levels are back. Decide if teams have motivation or not for a trade to be on the list. For instance I traded some Polish football at the weekend and I made the error of not knowing/checking that it was the last game of the regular season.

Simji

Nice 3.5pt profit in the benfica good end to a mix night. Old habits came back but not much change in bank so happy. Keeping the small stakes is helping.

Simji

If this is another red card I see Rio AVE shutting up shop even more

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer bet you are glad your cash out was voided!

Haha yeah

Martin

@richard-latimer bet you are glad your cash out was voided!

Simji

This post is deleted!

Simji

No check over goal

Richard Latimer

@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Are they looking at VAR?

God I hope not haha!

Simji

Are they looking at VAR?

Richard Latimer

Perfect end. Red and a goal.

Martin

Well could that trade have gone any better?! Get in!

Simji

Quick goal for benfica after the red

james everard

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Arsenal just look so lifeless don't they, think it will be a hell of a job for Arteta

First game back and it's against City away. I'll save the suicidal thoughts and cutting for now haha!!!

That Arsenal team is an embarrassment they have no fight. The club is mid table side now with little or no quality and why the fans continue year in year out pay the highest prices in world football for that crap is beyond me

Richard Latimer

Will save my update for when this one is done and dusted

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer lay time in Benfica?

Already laid and cashed out once ffs haha!!

Only consolation is that when they do score I should be able to get more from the trade because it will be later haha!!

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer lay time in Benfica?

Already laid and cashed out once ffs haha!!

Simji

Tried to be too greedy in the city game... Not a great night lol. First put the wrong trade in Dortmund game then tried to ease out the profit in city and 2 late goals in each half cost me.