The road to full time
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Hey @Darri I've just opened the trading results google doc and it only shows like 10 games? This post was made over a year ago, what am I missing? Thanks
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@martin-walker anything above 70% with a goal after 60 mins will generate decent profit at odds of 1.45 or above i can imagine
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@gary-brown i always enter around 60 mins or later so will be interesting to go through this data to see if the strike rate changes for 60 mins plus
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@darri thanks
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@martin-walker said in The road to full time:
Second half goal strategy, 82% had a second half goal so interesting start
Thats very good Martin. wELL DONE YOU.
anything over 70% strike rate for a strategy like this is great especially if your entering later than 60mins when odds are decent. -
@martin-walker dont need to post it up here, but once you do id be happy to help look at it for you. After tonight we will only have around 60 trades worth on the fhg project, expect that to be at 100 after weekend games, which will then lead us to then adding a new criteria based on our broad and basic findings. All of which ill show on this thread/blog
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Second half goal strategy, 82% had a second half goal so interesting start
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@martin-walker said in The road to full time:
After tonight ill be past 100 games worth of data
nice one Martin. I am aiming to do the same with a few filters. What strategy is your filter testing?
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After tonight ill be past 100 games worth of data
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@martin-walker sams got it spot on, however if 1k is your starting bank id just stick to it without changing and keep the 2% stakes as usual. only trying to highlight its possible to start with just £100. This is also only for the games i post up
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@martin-walker £80 stakes I think? 8% of (actual) bank until you hit 10k?
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Ive read the leveraging bit a couple times but cant get my head around it i dont think. I have a £1000 trading bank. How would your example play out for me
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Just quickly, please also dont expect that i win every trade! the way i trade isnt for everyone especially those who arent used to having losses. As humans we are wired to expect that more wins means more profit. Im going to go through patches like everyone else. But over a long period of games i fully expect ill be profitable. Whilst its been good to have a 100% month i fully expect that to be more variant and be more in the 60%-80% per month strike rate bracket. These will include losing days. I just believe in the fact that the value i take over time will add up and ill be on the right side of profit.
Im not trying to sell my strategy as the only successful way to trade. Im only highlighting the things that helped me. Over the course of this thread/blog i hope to cover these and relate it to whats happening. I find it hard to see the roi of buying a course because they give you 10-20 hours of info yet nothing to relate to. Being overwhelmed. I think the fact im running a beginner bank alongside will help people understand each post better in the journey.
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I had planned on writing this post later on once i had a set amount of trades under my belt but i feel i have to now show what i was meaning on the football thread the other day. There is no one way to trade, no one should be ramming down a strategy because there are different angles to trading hence why the markets move up and down. But what i want to quickly explain is what i was meaning when i say cut down your trades. And its based on 3 things.
- Pre match research/stats.
Really want to point this out to people, i use pre match stats. But i dont depend on them. They simply give me the games that i then take a further look at. Historic stats can tell a good picture about what can happen, but would you invest in a stock/share in a business purely of history, no you would then see if they have expansion plans, new ceo, balance sheets etc. So why wouldnt you do this with trading which is the equivalent for sports markets. Im not talking hours of researching its takes 15 MINS, imagine spending 15 mins to cut down hours of screen time. That was the main point i was making on the football thread. How can hours of screen time for little reward be helping anyone both in trading and personally. If you read further on this blog you will see i made a post bout what research to do, its super quick and simple. But i will do an updated version that more specific and less chat so newer member can find it easier.
- inplay stats/match reading
harder one to talk about because this is down to the individual person. Firstly can you control your emotions when you watch a game, or are you trigger happy after every shot. The problem i see if people jump on after they see a short sharp period of chances without consulting price. They think a goal is inevitable. 0-0 comes around and looking at red screens. Think logically about this. Use the pre match research to see if the key players are contributing. Is vardy getting in behind the defence is messi dictating. For others it will be pure stats so only enter if 4 shots on target. These are fine but those shots could be from outside the box. This does relate to number of games to trade. How can you feasibly watch +20 games at a weekend and make the right calls. Totally inefficient.
- PRICE
Even if you forget the other 2 this alone if done correctly can make a bad strategy still be manageable. Its the single most important thing. Now there are a few ways people forget how to use price. The example on the forum is using pure stats based. But actually you still have to take value on the price. Maria laying system was still based on the fact she/he predicted that horse was value odds to lay. people are just using stats and forgetting its the value of each trade that matters. So my example of i could easily predict city would win every game but while i may have a high strike rate am i being profitable or getting good value?
For me this is what i do. I spend 15 mins in the morning getting the selections from the filters. I then use my guide to research on them and cut any games that dont fit. I then only start watching set games from HT onwards. Each half is different so not only am i cutting out 45 mins im being efficient with my time. Im then watching the game to see if the game looks to be consistent pressure or if the key players are performing well. I then look at the action and look at the price and if they both compliment each other i then enter. Its really that simple. Trading isnt hard, the mental aspect is. So im not spending hours trading, im not chasing losses and im in and out at different points of the day.
I also want to highlight to people that think of what edge you have on the market. If everyone has these stats what makes your edge better? The markets are becoming more efficient and the pros are taking all the good prices before you enter. This is why its hard to help/guide people. Because i want to explain everything to everyone but its too much info to give in one go. as you become more experienced you understand its not just one thing that makes you successful its all of it combined. So hopefully over the next few months dont just think about each post think about all of them and how they all help your trading.
So many topics to talk about but ill cut it here. Update on the fhg filter has been done, 45 games already, should make the first batch by end of the week and move onto the next part of that filter. Already some exciting data i can see, it may look basic to you but someone who has traded the strategy before i knew it would follow the same path. If anyone spots what im seeing please message me about it.
Please dont ever think im having a rant about things, this is a community and we all should be encouraging good fundamentals. If we all improve then our selections will improve and the whole cycle means we all profit. ore good traders on here wont harm and only brings value. REMEMBER im not selling any course, subscription or strategy im giving you honest info i found to help me, it wont help everyone but others who might trade like me will.
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Starting bank: £100
end of month 1: £168Going to now explain what iv been talking about with regards to the bank and so people can understand my reasons for it. Im fed up of seeing people showing big stakes or big banks and for the beginners to feel overawed by it all. We all started small and built up. Would be easy for me to show a large bank and big wins an losses and for people to not being able to relate to that. So i thought of starting with £100 to show its possible. You see so many people hovering around for years with small banks and never making progress, im trying to show its possible if you put the effort in.
What i find is best use of my bank is to always make it working for me, so i dont want part of it to be dormant and useless. Let me ask you how many times have you ever needed to have your full bank in the markets? Never should be the answer. For my types of trades ie lcs/ltd 2% stake per trade you should never have more than 10% in at any time. So what i do is my full bank gets halved so 50% stays in betfair/betdaq/smarkets and the rest gets put into other money making investments or into a safety bank, both areas ill discuss later.
so to summarise 50% in the betting account and 50% in things outside of trading. This leads into my reasoning for my starting bank for this new challenge. Because we only need half of the money in if we said our bank hypothetically was £400 then we would have £200 in. But i now want to ask you have you ever been close to losing 25% of your bank in any given run of games? I hope no is the answer. This is why iv come to conclusion that i can safely put £100 in and we can treat it like a £400 bank in theory.
So when i say leveraged bank im meaning we times our physical bank by 4. So once i reach £200 ill then have a leveraged bank of £800 etc.
So keen eyes will have seen the leveraged bank has grown 17% and our own invested money of £100 has no turned over 70%. For more simpler terms im staking 8% per trade, im using the notion of a leveraged bank to highlight my reasoning for it.
Now dont get me wrong in the long term we wont be doing this. This is only for the bank building phase. This phase for me is from £100 to £10k. Once the bank hits £10k we start fresh. People are going to moan and say your staking to high but iv clearly explained why im using a bank this way. but ALSO take a look at my spreadsheets im not trading any different and im still only using 2% stakes in relation to the leveraged bank. So long term once we have the bank as one nothing will change. Im not condoning *% of a full bank to be used thats risky. What im showing is consistency of using a 2% per stake is viable even with a small trading bank.
So phase 1 is turning £100 into £10k. Thats the point at which id consider starting to withdraw some money and can start to pay ourselves from the profit. Ill outline the way i do this based on my pay structure which allows the bank to grow beyond £10k, take a wage and to build either a safety bank or a investment based bank.
The reason for a £100 deposit is because i think most people can afford to put in £100 over a few months, thats a few less takeaways or starbucks a month and your have it. Now whilst i encourage people to continue to invest so end of every month add more into your bank, essentially once you have a profitable strategy the only bottleneck is your own bank. So keep adding to it and your growth will be quicker. But for the purposes of this thread im going to show it is possible to trade from just £100 invested.
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@darri yes same filter you suggest but with second half goal instead
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@martin-walker ill keep that updated, are you still adapting it to a 2nd half filter instead?
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I have around 80 games worth of data towards building this filter. Looking forward to the next steps
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Hope this new structure to the thread is somewhat helpful and not too boring. I had a target of 20% growth of the leveraged bank and 80% of the actual bank. We are only a small % away from achieving that, so with that in mind im going to stop there for the month. In the future when our bank is at the level i deem full time worthy we will have a structured for how we pay ourselves etc, but for the purposes of this stage which is the bank building stage ill stop here. We have met our targets and our bank has grown. If we make 70% growth every month you can imagine the size itll be after just a few months. So although ill continue to trade itll be from my own bank, and all profits will be withdrawn from this stage.
So we have turned £100 into £168.64 thats just shy of 70% in one month and in only 2 days trading. For the rest of the month ill be withdrawing any gains. Ill continue to be online and speak to people and iv a few posts for the thread id like to post over the next few weeks. Itll also give me a chance to test a few things. I know there will be some who say why stop but given we are in the small bank stage we have to be consistent and once we reach the higher levels is when we can trade full months.
Just showing a different approach that most of the pros wont show. I like how transparent my blog is and i think it would be great if other pros did the same, put their money were there mouth is so to say.
A bank management and staking etc post will be up sometime on monday
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Another 100% day! Heres the thing now tho, the whole point of what i want this thread to show. Its not for me to prove i can trade or to ego boost myself. Whilst its nice to show a full house with no losses its not what i just want to show. Take from it the number of trades i have done. There was loads of games this past few days and iv only traded 6 games. Look around others are traded 10-20 plus and just sneaking over break even. LESS IS MORE, i dont care if it sounds like im always saying that because its true.Bayern vs gladbach:
simple one here, wasnt going to get involved because bayern had rested a few players, its coming to end of the season and the league is pretty much done. What was interesting was they brought on davies and coman a pure intent to go win the game. I waited to see if they would cause havoc. Not initially but as the game wore on bayern had gladbac further in their own box. I decided to enter and winner in the 86 min, i traded out that game aswell.
Fortuna vs dortmund:
People are going to be skeptical with this one. A last kick of the game winner. The thing is im not emotionally attached to trades. Its something ill talk about later, the more you trade the less hyped you get which means your far better at spotting chances to enter. Much like the bayern game, wasnt going to enter, then haaland comes off the bench and straight away it created a chance. The game was dead for a bit longer after that but then like the bayern game fortuna stuck in their own box. I entered very late on and was the big winner for me on the day. Both LCS/Back 0.5 and the LTD got matched and came away from 1 game using 2% stake with a whopping 5% bank growth.
Celta vigo vs villareal:
Unlike the games before it this was a value bet rather than trade. The game was open and villareal had attacking momentum with bringing bacca and chic on the wing. Once i had entered i never felt a huge urgency for a goal, so i didnt re enter with a ltd. A goal came and my LCS/Back ov 0.5 won.
A really good day, been a big bank building weekend. The reason im showing my results in both the online screenshot and on the spreadsheets is so people can gather their own thoughts. The cold hard data im giving will allow others to use it and think of their own approach to trading. I think in the industry alot of people dont show this style of trading, it to some people is deemed high risk trading. But look at any 2nd half goal strategy and then look when goals are scored. Im just abusing the market. The old BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL. Whilst i may loss more trades or have less strike rates, ill still have higher profits. Its not always about having a high strike rate, no point winning heaps of games if 1/2 losses wipes out a chunk.
Whilst this stage of the new bank is where its at if anyone has any questions or suggestions for the thread please ask. Ill be doing a bank management post on monday to explain the staking and whats the bank structure. I sure keen eyes will see the physical bank hasnt just grown by 17% its closer 70%. But more on that to come.
