The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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3 Horses i will be looking to get 33% from today are
1.00pm Tiercel
3.55 Taste The Nectar
4.30 Be Proud (will monitor price as fairly short) -
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@charles-cartwright I will be sticking around my good man and hoping to find an edge with the horses to add to my trading portfolio. So if you have any ideas other than the LTF strat I can get my head around it would be much appreciated
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Great to see racing return but of course 'caveat emptor' in spades for the first few weeks. Since my B2L approach relies on a horse having run in the past 45 days I won't be posting any of those selections for a while.
I will probably restrict myself to some 'follow the market' backing and laying a bit little in April for the start of the turf season. Of course with no NH racing it will be slim pickings for a while but hopefully things will pick up as we head into summer.
Hope all of those who have joined the thread in the past couple of months will stick around and post your ideas, successes, and failures with those of us for whom racing is our primary interest as far as trading goes.
C
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Roll on looking forward to trying some pre race trading as the liquidity will be massive I would have thought.
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Thanks Richard.Great to have racing back.A lot of unknowns until we get a week or 2 under our belts.
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Going to get involved at Newcastle tomorrow with small stakes, due to the fact my main area of focus is NH racing + lack of recent form.
4.30 Queen Of Kalahari (currently 11/1 with bookies / 18 bf for pennies)
5.05 Bo Samraan (currently 16/1 with bookies / 15.5 bf for pennies)I will be looking for these to shorten in-running.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
UK racing back tomorrow!
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2 matched in Tampa Bay with the 21:47 @ 1.81
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@james-everard yes be weary of any books that are trying to sell a system, as we know it is much better to devise your own strategy rather than copy a book. That said some are good, especially ones not focused on strategy but rather mindset, discipline and how to set up as a professional.
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
into
Yes, good point, definitely something to be wary of. I tend to read many books and take a little from each, would never just follow a strategy in a book. Some of the stuff out there is complete nonsense. To save anyone from buying this I could stick the course stats on forum if anyone interested (not sure if can copy from kindle reader?)
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Has anyone read 'Lay The Field' by Roger Kemp on Amazon Prime? This is not a strategy that particulaly suits my trading style but maybe useful for you guys who are looking into it. It lays out the courses, distance and number of runners you should be looking at, again i haven't tested so don't know how accurate but maybe worth a read?
Thanks Richard. Be interesting if anyone has bought , I would do but still not knowing if I am going to be made redundant or not every penny counts at the moment.
Always wonder if people are making good money on a strategy why would they share and potentially lose their edge unless of course he hopes to sell 50000 copies of the book which will more than pay for it -
Has anyone read 'Lay The Field' by Roger Kemp on Amazon Prime? This is not a strategy that particulaly suits my trading style but maybe useful for you guys who are looking into it. It lays out the courses, distance and number of runners you should be looking at, again i haven't tested so don't know how accurate but maybe worth a read?
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2 races qualified in Tampa Bay Downs Tonight
21:00 - 1 Matched @ 1.81
21:30 - 1 Matched @ 1.81 -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright I heard that 1.01 was profitable did you find this when looking at the data?
Martin:
In theory yes because that is actually the only price point where the frequency exceeds the value required to turn a profit. Happens about 1.5-1.8% of all flat races and of course you only need a frequency of better than 1 in 100 to be profitable. The problem is going to be getting your bet matched in the scrum that goes on at that low of a price point where in most races there is a ton of money dumped into the market pre-race at very low prices on fancied horses just because of the positive arithmetic. So if you are only going in a couple of quid then it is quite likely you wont get matched, the losing horse drifts out again and you get stuck laying only the winner.
I have never tried it myself but I am guessing that if you could mentally tolerate the minuscule strike-rate and have enough bankroll to get matched most if not all of the time then it is about as close to a sure thing as you can get in racing. I don't have either of those and so it is a hard pass for me.
C
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Hi guys I was thinking of doing the lay the field selection today but not done it yet and not sure how to do it. I just thought it was time to learn.
Is their a video for this to explain how to do it?
Is the selection today a good one? -
@charles-cartwright Hey Charles that's awesome I will delve into the data over the next few days, am busy today but should be able to have a quick look at what you've got below tonight
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Final thoughts on LTF
As I mentioned a while ago a scraped and then analyzed every turf flat race run in the UK and Ireland from 2010-2019 to try to find any consistent angle where the LTF strategy could turn a profit. Bottom line is I found none.
Having said that it may be that I missed something or that the data has value for someone else and so I am putting it up here for anyone else to look at and work on.
The spreadsheets are pretty easy to follow but here is a quick primer for anyone interested.
Basic metadata columns:
Date: Date of race in MM/DD/YY format.
Time: Scheduled time of race
Course: Racecourse. I did remove some of the very minor courses and any course where turf racing was discontinued before 2019.
Distance: In yards
Runners: Self explanatory
Class of race: 2 columns for class by letter and by number
Going: This is the actual going at the time of the raceBefair specific data:
FAV1-FAV5: BSP of the first five horses in the market
LIR1-LIR3: Low-in-running price of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in the race (obviously LIR0 is 1.01 in every race).Any questions please let me know. If there are any fields that are typically present in the ProForm data that you want to see I can pull those into this database pretty easily but I can't think of any that would really help here. Since this is UK/IE racing there is no issue with liquidity obviously.
Cheers
C
