The BTC Horse Racing Thread
-
@dan-erridge Is this based on research from a Pace Map?
How many movements of ticks you going for?
-
Trying a B2L on Towards The Light in 7.45
-
Have sent Betfair support an email asking why I was matched on 4 horses and do they want their monies back... Will wait for a response
-
@richard-latimer Yeah it was... Bet Angel kicked in though... All data logged plus added a note to remind myself
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Interesting Bet Angel had Actual SP as 4.28... That's prob back price but Lay would only be higher
I had a quick look but 4th horse was priced @ 10.5
-
@richard-latimer Interesting Bet Angel had Actual SP as 4.28... That's prob back price but Lay would only be higher
-
On my experiment earlier the first one just won, equivalent said it should be a 7/5 shot it was freely available at 5.6 on betfair
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
That's strange... 19:15 on my software only shows 2 horses traded below 2.04 but I was matched on 4!!!
2 of them matched for 2.0 but at no more than £3 or £4
I didn't do this as only 3 horses under 10.0
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
That's strange... 19:15 on my software only shows 2 horses traded below 2.04 but I was matched on 4!!!
2 of them matched for 2.0 but at no more than £3 or £4
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
That's strange... 19:15 on my software only shows 2 horses traded below 2.04 but I was matched on 4!!!
-
@alan-steward
Yes mate I believe it can, as fast run races usually mean finishers which can get matched late in race,so I believe it could be some assistance yes -
@dan-erridge Does the Pace Map give any assistance for our LTF exercise or just best used for B2L?
-
I carried out an experiment earlier on some horses that i got of Richards website, they were horses that equibase had very short that were bigger on betfair, i noted the prices at 1pm to back and the prices at 6.30pm to lay to see if they more aligned with the american prices, heres the results
R1 WRD gold note 1PM 5.6,6.30PM 4.0
R9 WRD SWEET CAROLINA 1PM 6.2,6.30PM 5.4
R5 FON VAGARY 1PM 4.2,6.30PM 3.3ALL THREE WOULD HAVE BEEN LOVELY TRADES PRE OFF ALREADY, THERE WERE 2 OTHERS THAT ARE SIMILAR IN PRICE ATM, BUT NO MONEY MATCHED YET, IM SURE NEARER POST THEY WILL START SHORTER, THEY WERE
R3 FON RUN FOR MARTY
R5 WRD HOLLYWOOD SQUAREI WILL CHECK THESE AT POST TIME
-
@alan-steward
If you go to that link Richard posted earlier mate, sign up, all the courses are free at the moment, that gives you a pace map for the early,middle and end pace and a write up about each race, plus odds value etc etc, looks very good, then you can check the pace map against the races tonight -
@alan-steward A pacemap shows the expected positons / pace in each individual race based on previous data. It can be extremely useful in idetifying for example (a horse for a B2L that looks set to gain an easy early lead).
-
How do we read or understand a "Pacemap"?
What is a Pacemap?
Would this help with LTF & Back2Lay?
-
@richard-lillis Hi mate welcome back to BTC... Am looking at getting into the horse racing scene so would love to be able to pick your brains plus the other experienced horse traders.
So from my short experience of trading the US horse market in-play trading can range between 15 & 25% from pre off... Pre off is generally around 150/230K obviously give or take
-
@richard-lillis
Yep thats what ive just been on mate, looks good, also gives you odds of what price they should be and what is value, so ive noted them aswell to see how they do, how accurate the pace maps are will be intersting as thats vital to getting matched quickly imo, i will be on very small stakes tonight anyway mate, thanks for the info -
@dan-erridge if you go on statslens true odds, it gives you a pacemap of predicted running styles. Not sure how accurate it is as I've never traded US but may be helpful.
-
@richard-lillis depends on the meeting but it's hard to trade inplay as it isn't huge
