The BTC Horse Racing Thread

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1pt in AUS races this morning and 1pt tonight in Tampa. Still a bit undecided on this last race. May be a L2B job.

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Looks like it peeked going out to 4.0 but is now coming back in... Be interesting to see where it ends lol

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Looking at the Fav's graph I think it will come in to around 3.5

I was just thinking it looks like an outward trend haha

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Looking at the Fav's graph I think it will come in to around 3.5

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@richard-latimer Fav keeps dipping in and out of 4.0... If it stays close no lower than 3.85 will LTF @ 2.04

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Only 1 matched @ 1.98 in 21:00 race

Where has your ltf spreadsheet gone?

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Only 1 matched @ 1.98 in 21:00 race

The 21:37 could yet qualify

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Only 1 matched @ 1.98 in 21:00 race

Richard Latimer

2 matched on the next. Loser @ 2.0

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Got 2 matched @ 1.98

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Everyone on this race then?

3 matched @ 2.02 but looks like amounts were quite small.

1.95 & 2.06 were where the £100 traded kicked in for each loser.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Everyone on this race then?

3 matched @ 2.02 but looks like amounts were quite small.

Richard Latimer

Everyone on this race then?

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@charles-cartwright
My (unvalidated and untested) opinion is similar...I think track selection is going to be critical to this...then I think the broad criteria we have for race selection at those tracks will probably be about right, but we might then want to consider to only TLF once it has gone in play and we can check that we still have a close race.

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I now have 9 years of data from ProForm being transferred into a workable form.

My instinct tells me that this is going to prove quite tricky to find some sort of trend that works for LTF.

I suspect based on a preliminary look that a few things that seem intuitively likely to help are going to prove not to be helpful (fav price, number of runners, going, seeming competitiveness of race). Hoping that with a large enough dataset will be able to spot course and distance trends because that seems more likely to be predictive assuming you have enough data.

I still think there is mileage to be had in the Aussie racing and so I am going to LTF in every race there with sufficient liquidity just to hopefully start looking for patterns. At 10p a chuck its hardly a massive investment!

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1pt profit in Tampa tonight. Delighted with that.

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Seems the Fav ran away with the last race as well... See you guys tomorrow

Yeah, didn't do that one. Odds of fave lower than 4.0.

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Seems the Fav ran away with the last race as well... See you guys tomorrow

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Only 1 matched in simulation mode... Anybody do it live?

Yes, the loss makes up for the four that got matched on Wednesday... Swings and roundabouts!

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Will keep an eye on the 20:24 & maybe do small simulation stakes in live mode but set odds to 2.04 as field is smaller

Only 1 matched in simulation mode... Anybody do it live?

Yes. Only one came close. I'm guessing he ran away with it.