The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@richard-latimer yes I'm on
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So trying to get back into this it looks like the 20:15 qualifies
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Here you go mate, obviously variance is still to kick in but you can see all my criteria below.
You really need to measure and gauge to get your own feel etc.
@Alan-Steward Also, I don't know if it's a mistake but you've put profitable race no by 2nd but 2 horses matched and 0.25 profit?
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Thanks Martin me being lazy should have looked myself. Interesting sounds like this type of race would meet our criteria most do you think?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@alan-steward Cheers. Are you doing evens then?
Never going to be successful trying to do LTF at even money. You need 2 to convert to just get your money back
I am currently running my experiment at 1.76 and have upped the minimum liquidity to 100K (and that might not be enough but its a starting point).
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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Lots of interesting posts and activity on here!
Funny that there is more now when there is no horse racing in the UK than when there is!!!!
As a sort of 'expert' on horse racing I would be happy to try to answer any questions that people have.
What I would say is that I see a lot of what looks like over-interpretation based on very small amounts of data which is probably fair enough given the thin gruel we have to try to trade on right now.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread I have set up an automated LTF on BFBM and will use that to generate some data on that type of approach.
One immediate thing for people trading on the US racing is that racing is only going on in a couple of states right now for the most part and that these are generally pretty low grade races. Nothing against that necessarily but it is going to be hard to extrapolate any of this once things open up more.
Again....data data data is what is needed.
There is way more racing than anything else though haha
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@alan-steward Cheers. Are you doing evens then?
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can anyone confirm what is a claim race , it is a higher rating of horses? I would imagine the Handicap racing is a good type of race of ltf, as would be Maidens as well?
Over half of all races in the US are called 'claiming' races. It actually means very little other than the horses are technically up for sale. You can gauge the quality of the race in that category by the purse on offer....the higher the purse the higher the supposed quality of the horses.
I doubt that this has much if anything to do with whether LTF is likely to be successful or not simply linked to a decent number of runners, a reasonably competitive field and sufficient in play trading to result in major price fluctuations. The latter is always going to be a challenge when most of these races have only about 25% of the liquidity of a crappy grade 6 A/W handicap on a Tuesday night at Wolverhampton!
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Can anyone confirm what is a claim race , it is a higher rating of horses? I would imagine the Handicap racing is a good type of race of ltf, as would be Maidens as well?
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Lots of interesting posts and activity on here!
Funny that there is more now when there is no horse racing in the UK than when there is!!!!
As a sort of 'expert' on horse racing I would be happy to try to answer any questions that people have.
What I would say is that I see a lot of what looks like over-interpretation based on very small amounts of data which is probably fair enough given the thin gruel we have to try to trade on right now.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread I have set up an automated LTF on BFBM and will use that to generate some data on that type of approach.
One immediate thing for people trading on the US racing is that racing is only going on in a couple of states right now for the most part and that these are generally pretty low grade races. Nothing against that necessarily but it is going to be hard to extrapolate any of this once things open up more.
Again....data data data is what is needed.
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@martin-dodd Hi Martin , I think the pace races you might want to ignore as I believe it is a form of harness racing
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@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Can I also say that I think I am enjoying the horses more than Trading football......that may be down to the god awful Belarusians though.
Hi Keith , I know what you mean I love football and that was all I was generally trading until the Covid19 put pay to all decent leagues, the standard off football and lack of real data and team news etc has put me off. I have since been following this strategy for the horses and testing my dogs strategy also trying to learn from the academy videos that Martin and co have spent a lot of time doing very impressed
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@dan-erridge indeed.
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@keith-dow
That has potential to be a real useful website mate, just need to chart how accurate their pace charts are I guess, potential for b2l and l2b if accurate aswell -
This is a cracking little resource. I'm particularly fond of the pace section in each race card. Gives a good indication of front runners. May also help look at how competitive a race is for LTF.
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@richard-latimer Here you go mate, obviously variance is still to kick in but you can see all my criteria below.
You really need to measure and gauge to get your own feel etc.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-dodd Yes mate that I believe is the most important element to measure... Stats on, claim, maiden claim handicap etc.
Any Horse whizzo's on here who can explain to a horse newbie what a claim, maiden claim & handicap is... I believe a handicap race is supposed to create a more level playing field???
I'm not a horse expert but handicap is when the horses are weighted I think so as to literally handicap the best ones. Maiden, none of them have won. Not enitrely sure about claim but I just googled this.
A claiming race in thoroughbred horse racing is one in which the horses are all for sale for more or less the same price (the "claiming price") up until shortly before the race.
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@martin-dodd Yes mate that I believe is the most important element to measure... Stats on, claim, maiden claim handicap etc.
Any Horse whizzo's on here who can explain to a horse newbie what a claim, maiden claim & handicap is... I believe a handicap race is supposed to create a more level playing field???
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer Hi mate, another solid 1pt green last night with LTF... Just battling with Bet Angel at the mo after getting so used to Fairbot lol but yes doing minimal stakes now rather than simulation mode
Am doing mine manually and the biggest pain is waiting for each race to see if it qualifies so am now doing 3 strats on every race... Pre Race Scalp (@Keith-Dow is the main man for this one), Dutch Front of Field and for those that qualify LTF
@Alan-Steward what filters/criteria are you currently using and what odds you laying at?
