Poisson calculator
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Hi Guys
Anyone on here ever used/using poisson to determine likely outcomes on football matches? been looking at it recently and looks very interesting, be great to here others thoughts on it
cheers
Dan -
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We use Poisson in some of the football ratings but we use a programming language called "R" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language)).
I did find this Poisson calculator spreadsheet online though which might help?
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@dan-erridge Wonder if we can look to use some cross stats to highlight ones with a good rating from poisson and then when they go 0-1 down to back them.
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@ryan-carruthers
Hi mate
Only built prem and Spain prem, but defo match odds, I look for something with like a 60% chance of winning that’s a value price, otherwise I disregard it.its also predicted a few correct scores aswell, but I wouldn’t be getting involved with that personally.if we could get one that updates all the big leagues, would be interested how a set and forget on selections over 60% would get on.
Dan
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@dan-erridge Sounds good, what markets has it been most profitable on?
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@ryan-carruthers
As i said been building my own (slowly) done Prem and La Liga and nearly done Bundasliga aswell, ran my results through a poisson calculator against the last set of games and was very accurate mate, predicted some nice results.Would be great if we could get something going on it as a group maybe?
Dan
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@dan-erridge I bet Adam would buddy he is the master of this kind of thing, plus we've already got the stats - we had a member called Lewis using our stats and poisson years back and he was smashing it - which is what lead me to going down that route.
@Adam Poisson?
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@ryan-carruthers
Hi mate
Yes i thought that about the entry, been building my own figures for the big leagues whilst quiet.The other day somewhere on youtube i saw a guy set it up on excel so that all he had to do was copy the data over to his excel spreadsheet and it recalculated for him every time. he had some sums set up and when he copy and pasted, it took the figures and redone them in like 3 seconds! Im not great with computers so have no idea, but im sure theres people on here who would know, would Adam have any idea?
cheers
Dan
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I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the entire concept but I never got anything from a poisson calculator. Take a rough guess at the likelyhood of a 2 - 1 outcome, then check the calculator and you won't be far off. Not dissing it entirely, just not quite getting it I think.
