The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@james-everard excellent, cheers mate
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Are the Shepparton meeting Harness Racing?
Looks like it might be, cheers
Hi Alan, I have found a way of finding out if you go onto the Bet365 website scroll down the left hand side of the different sport options, near the bottom of the list you have more sports click and it has trotting races which is harness races and the events that day.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I prefer to watch the match go live for now as I'm learning a lot about the odds etc.
It seems if there are 2 horses in the 3's & 1 or 2 more below 6.5 is more likely to succeed but need more data as back up
With this theory I had 4 matched in the last race at Tampa Bay last night... Shame I'm only testing in simulation mode
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Some good opportunities in some of these races for dutching. Had a bit of joy with this on Aussie dogs as well this morning.
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@martin-dodd love this thinking
the what has to happen can unearth some gems. -
Are the Shepparton meeting Harness Racing?
Looks like it might be, cheers
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@pete-smith Not too bad then. Good luck with watching the Nicarguain league it makes the dog and duck league look good. I had a misfortune of watching a match last Saturday
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@james-everard only two matched so a small loss for me. Probably just going to watch the two Nicaragua matches starting at 11pm which will be it for today
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@pete-smith Not a great start but I should have not rushed into the trade . I looked at the odds and saw the favourite was 4.0 and 5 under 10.0 , 1mile maiden but failed to notice only 9 runners thought not 10. Lesson learnt don't rush if you miss a trade it Is money saved not lost !
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@james-everard you too!
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@pete-smith I am attempting a split stake , at 2.04 and 1.6 good luck mate
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@james-everard I'm on it mate odds of 2.04 for this one, try to get a few matches
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@pete-smith I am getting on the 19.15pm (now) at tampla bay meets the criteria for lay the field
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@martin-futter I traded the Randwick 03:10 where one matched and Mophetville 03:35 where three got matched, so a loss and a win. What I did find is that the liquidity really picks up a couple of minutes before the off the second race going from 2k to around 125k in about 3 minutes...crazy stuff!
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@martin-futter Ive LTF @ 1.81 all of them except 9.40 am Toowoomba, and all of them were winners with 2 horse hitting the target odds.
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@james-woodroffe did you do the click in play thing? on the circle that needs a dot in it?
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This post is deleted!
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-woodroffe were they unmatched or just didn't place inrunning?
Didn’t place in running it seems. Almost like they lapsed?
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Lay the Field update:
I'm not convinced we are going in the right direction with this (very happy to be proved wrong though!)
The few picks I have made with the criteria haven't been positive and led to an overall loss. Also, taking Australia as an example, if I look at the historical data for 2020 then I have zero events where 3+ runners had £100 traded on them below 2.0So, I'm testing in a different direction.
Using Ryan's "What has to happen?" question then the key thing is that multiple horses have to get below an odds threshold... the number of runners, BSP fav, etc don't matter if one horse disappears up the track. I think there needs to be some in-play consideration to the decision to trade.What I am going to try is looking for races where the IP odds of the 3rd fav get below, say, 3.0 (best value TBD)...then we know we have several horses in the mix and we can lay the field.
To begin with I'm running this with micro stakes on any race (no restriction on BSP, runners, length, etc) to see if any patterns emerge.EDIT: The wrinkle to this is that they don't all have to be under, say 3.0, at the same time for the trade to win....but that needs more thought
