The road to full time
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@luke-silvey Course title is Media but its basically a TV and film production course
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What course is it you're on mate?
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@martin-futter tbh i wouldnt mind that either! nah i have been asked to work for a tv channel but until i start i dont want to jynx it and say the name until i start the job only for it to not come true. @Jarratt-Perkins trading has to be the aim, i cant envisage not looking back in say 5 years and go i wish i gave that a better go. However im not restricting myself to if i dont make it in 2 years im giving up. Its just a target id like to get to personally.
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@jarratt-perkins i think i like the idea of automation but just doesnt feel right to me. I think automation works well when you have alot of strategies and ones were you cannot manage the market yourself. For me im a bit control freak and prefer the process of getting involved in a trade. For me i look around at all the pros and they all seem to be quiet about automation. Football markets dont require bots so ill stick to what im good at. Im very keen to see how you get on with yours, i think for me automation is something i like the thought of but in reality it doesnt suit my trading mindset.
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@darri Thats great news mate!
The reason you trade is to make money and if you have a job you really enjoy and make money doing it then its a no brainer to me you choice!
Have you thought about applying your starts into automation? -> i am inbuilding inplay factors into my automation using a third party site that has helped alot!
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What a weird month iv just had. I got offered a job for a company iv been wanting to work for since i was a kid, however its only really been since i started my course that its become feasible for me to even get there. The main issue is its a contract based role and is no guarantee of work after it and i still have just under 2 years of my course left. Iv been tossing and turning with it and in that mindset i just couldnt focus on trading. Its now been resolved and having spoke to them about the situation they are now offering me part time role which works around my course and with the promise of work if i pass the course. Perfect backup for me, iv now got time and breathing space back to work on trading and not be up in arms as to what the future plans are.
So thought id explain my absence and get this off my chest. Family are still sceptical on trading and i must admit when this offer came up they were more than critical of my choices. I suppose its only really those that trade and have traded for a while that will understand that side of it.
Starting march my course allows me to work from home in build up to end of year submit. This will mean i can work of trading most days. Ill be back with a consistent update on this thread and trading the full month has to be my aim. Ill plan to be stricter on myself and maintain this thread more as its been a kick that i needed all those months ago. So end of this month ill update on bank situation and what the plans are going forward.
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@paul-keighley for the FHGs i put and order in pre match for a 1.51 price. I then just forget about them and see if it got matched and its results end of day. Im finding the approach far better for trading FH as you can become frustrated if watching it live. over 2.5 was tested last year and placed orders at 1.8 but first few trades this year iv been doing even money. Ill be changing these back to 1.8 as iv not been able to get on a few of them that converted.
So FHG order of 1.51 and hope i gets matched on time
over 2.5 order of 1.8 and same again hope it gets matchedIn terms of the stats filter not very in depth at all. I tend to have 1 general stat supported by 2 stats for both home team and away team and then anything else i will research myself. Iv got one for 0-0,0-1and 1-0. so basically, a general stat for 1 more goal in game, if its 0-1 a set stat for home team to score and away concede and vice versa for 1-0. Stats software is powerful but can be over relied on which is something iv maybe been bad for this week. Remember tho use the stats to find the selections then research the selections to see what outside factors could affect those stats you have got. Iv been guilty not doing that past week. Funny that the days iv made most profit are also the days iv researched the games further.
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@darri I love how you are open here Darri I am learning loads on how your approach trading mate. Thank you
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@gary-brown My aim is to average 10-15 per month over the course of 3 months, i dont win everyday remember, in fact today iv got a loss of a 2.5 points. But yes its still been a great week. I know it sounds weird that im down about my strike rate of 2nd half goals but its because that normally my main earner and is the one i have the most stake involved in.
Iv looked at the fixtures for the next couple weeks and im not overly impressed, so what im thinking is to accept the profit this month as its already around my target and paper trade the rest of the month to rebuild confidence in my approach. Couple times past few days iv become a tad frustrated with a few trades so need to try get back to a relaxed attitude. I know its because i took a break just need to get back into the swing of it and treat each trade as emotionless as i can. paper trading is good for that just to rebuild confidence.
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Love reading this thread Darri, very insightful and informative, so good luck with the year coming.
I'm interested in your approach to your set and forget strats, as I've been trying to automate certain strategies also, so I can focus more on 2nd half inplay games too.
So for your set and forget FHG and over 2.5 strats do you have a min price you require or do you just back before ko regardless, or just place the bet but queue for a certain price?You obviously don't need to give out the full details or your secrets of course, but i'd be interested in how in depth you go with your match selection filters using the BTC software, ie what sort of criteria you go for roughly for your certain strategies? don't worry if you don't want to go into detail. thanks
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@darri Hi Darri looks like overall your profit is great. Is that 13.9 points profit just from week 1?
I thought your monthly target was 10-15 points or am I totally not understanding it.
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Took a bit of time after the ac milan game to figure out if something has changed or if im just on a bit of variance. I must have done it before my break in december but iv changed my filter. This is the total rookie mistakes im wanting to grow out of. For example the ac milan game, yes the stats were good for a goal in the overall scale of the game but actually 2nd half ac milan past 5 games at home have been a bit iffy. These kind of things iv got to try get back into. The research i was doing before was time consuming but it was working feel iv maybe dipped into just blindly using the stats software for selections and letting them ride out.
Plan for the next week is to revert back to old ways and proper reserach again it appears for my style of trading to be the only way for profit. Also have changed back the filters to its original forms, no idea why i tweaked them as it removed a few key aspects to 2nd half goal trades, must have been trying too hard to find better priced games. Back up and running now shame iv already eaten into a fair few trades for this month that shouldnt have even been on there.
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@keith-anderson @Martin-Futter @Gary-Brown - I tell you what annoys me more than not havign enough added on time as most of the time if a team does not want to win (seen it loads in FA cup) teams get to 88th Minute and just sit in the opposite corner. In SA they have just brought out a rule that if any team does this it's an instant free kick to the other side!
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End of week review:
I hope this doesnt look tacky and that it gives a better insight into how my trades are doing both personally and when i post them on the forum.
For future reference other is cup games, lays and anything other than my core strategies. I will do another row for cricket trades as i have been trading it but because its not settled yet wont be included in this weeks games.
Staking plans for the above are as follows:
LCS/LTD/FHG = 2% of bank
Anything else = 1% of bank2.5/FHG are both set and forget pre match so i dont actively trade them. Which is different to my approach to them end of last year. I wanted to take a more simple relaxed approach to both of them. Its allowing me to only focus on 2nd half trades and leaving the option to test a new football strategy and learn the cricket markets. Im in no rush to add to my trading plan but i like the stress relief of using a set and forget approach leaving me 1 strategy to be active in.
On the face of it my picks for 2nd halfs arent working but just to note most of the "other" profit is 2nd half picks as the cup games were so up and down, i can see why some of the pros dot get involved but i havent been burnt in them yet so will continue to find value in them going forward.
Really solid start to the month already over the minimum target for each month so as long as i can be consistent with trades anything over this is a bonus which i can build onto the bank.
Going forward ill keep the weekly updates in this format and may go a bit more analytical once there is more data to go over, so it shows my over geeky trading mind and how im trying to improve as a trader and also balance keeping it simple.
Hope this is good any feedback or if someones got anything else they would like to know or a way to improve these posts please let me know. After taking time off in december its been good to be back trading and being active on the community.
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Brilliant turnaround today with regards to 2nd half picks was starting to think it was turning into a bad looking run if im honest. First time in a while i was worried about how i was trading them. Ended the night with a 4 in a row of winners so bit of confidence restored.I wanted to highlight the roma game as one of those games were i questioned how to get in. I think most people watched that game and i cant believe roma didnt score. But what this trade showed me is that im getting better as a trader. I waited till later in the game even tho there was chances waiting to get a good price to trade it. I like how im not so aggressive anymore with trading and didnt just follow what others posted which was to lay torino. 9/10 maybe they do equalise but im super chuffed with my approach and netting a winning trade. Im sure on a match by match basis that was a clear lay of torino but in a bid to get consistent iv got to stick to my strategy and style of trading. Discipline won me this trade today.
Im just writing up a end of week summary and might not post till the morning as not sure how to plot it in a small picture yet, as soon as iv fixed that ill pop it up. Been a funny week for trading, i hate this winter break.
Jan 5 = +6.7
Jan = +13.9 -
@darri Injury time is something I've been complaining about for years - even before VAR. You are correct though. The last few seasons have been bad for time wasting. This season has been horrific, especially as the referee can now stop the play whenever he wants. Time keeping should be taken away from the referee now.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@darri so glad you were still in profit even though its been a bad day.
A postive thought for you
It reminds me of title winning teams. They still end up getting results eventhough they play badly. That's the difference to why they win the league and others don't. -
One of those days were you think everything goes against you, VAR, Red cards, strikers missing sitters etc. Im not going to do a VAR rant but in almost all the games even my winning trades the amount of time lost to VAR on top of the usual stoppages is getting beyond a joke. About 5-10 mins being lost yet only 3/4 mins added on. Im all for VAR as a football fan but its not good for trading as essentially our time in the markets are being hampered. Maybe VAR if its going to be used on everything these days needs to stop the clock or something while it checks and just add injury time for time wasting stuff. Its the only thing that made me annoyed today not the losing trades ill be able to turn that around but outside influences.Anyway onto the trades. Bad day at the office for my 2nd half goals i dont actually remember when i had a run this bad across 8 games. Lucky for me tho FHGs are still looking good 3/4 today one being from the fa cup. The newcastle game basically the only reason im in profit still. Rochdale all over them and had it for a 2nd half goal too. That was a big game for me today.
The boavista game was a cracker for me too. I had that as a lcs and ltd. When the goal came i got a great price on the lcs. I then cashed out on the LTD and because it was a even game i put a lay on boavista locking in a profit, and they equalised late on and was almost another full point more profit. I only did this because from a LTD at minimum i want a 50% return so if the game is still open anything over that i will likely invest in again and lock in the 50% and anything over is a bonus.
After tomorrows games ill post an update of my strategies and show the layout for the future weekly update posts. Nothing you havent seen before but gives good context to how im approaching it and for transparency.
Jan 4 = +0.4
Jan = +7.2
