Political Trading Thread
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@will-b said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan said in Political Trading Thread:
Trump still coming in.
Was just logging on to say this but you beat me to it. Have to admit I expected Trump's price to stutter at least a little when he got impeached but it seems his approval rating and odds are better than ever on the back of it. I would say "only in America" but I think that's just world politics these days.
@John-Folan I've never done the one tick recycle thing but I can see it can be really effective if done well. What do you do if the odds move against you? Do you move the odds you are trying to trade out at or do you leave it at one tick different to the odds you entered at in the expectation that the odds will swing back your way? I'm expecting your answer will be "it depends" but just wondering if you have a specific process you tend to follow
I agree. Interesting stat quoted to me by an economist yesterday as well. Socialism has only won 1 in the last 60 elections across Europe. Wonder how that equates to America. I thought there would be a spike too. This could actually help him. Mad.
I always have a two tick stop loss in place in case it goes wonky. I take that on the chin and will then watch to see if it stabilises to go again or just bail on the market if it goes wonky. I always try and get matched on the back first as shorter odds stuff tends to move in first so the back gets matched then the lay goes in. (Sometimes I get lucky and get a few ticks movement the right way.) Well it does in football anyway especially nearer the game.
You could probably do more than one tick with Trump. With football I’m out before team news then back in after it settles. With politics it seems to take a fair while longer to do anything after events so you have time to play.
Hope that makes sense
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@john-folan said in Political Trading Thread:
Trump still coming in.
Was just logging on to say this but you beat me to it. Have to admit I expected Trump's price to stutter at least a little when he got impeached but it seems his approval rating and odds are better than ever on the back of it. I would say "only in America" but I think that's just world politics these days.
@John-Folan I've never done the one tick recycle thing but I can see it can be really effective if done well. What do you do if the odds move against you? Do you move the odds you are trying to trade out at or do you leave it at one tick different to the odds you entered at in the expectation that the odds will swing back your way? I'm expecting your answer will be "it depends" but just wondering if you have a specific process you tend to follow
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Trump still coming in.
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Rejigged my labour bets and gone back in at the higher price on long-bailey. I don’t think Starmer or Thornberry stand a chance. Momentum and the far left control Labour.
Trump is probably worth a back. I was on the right side of a one tick recylce so that’s in below evens now. The democrats are causing themselves problems and trump is playing them like a violin.
I think the election as Charles said is a lot tighter and depends on who the Democrats put up and they are good at shooting themselves in the foot. When Trumps price settles again I will go back to one tick recycles to build my trading pot for the fun and games that are sure to follow.
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@john-folan Wigan all the way! Even though I didn't vote for her :face_screaming_in_fear:
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A back of Lisa Nandy and Long-Bailey as the two front runners. For the labour leadership
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@will-b said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan Corbyn and Theresa May are cut from the same cloth when it comes to not knowing when to quit so it wouldn’t surprise me if he is working on a plan to allow him to continue for the short term at least with a view to using this time to turning his reputation as labour leader around and maybe staying longer.
Not sure yet if I will enter this market but at the moment it seems pretty safe to say he won’t quit this year so I would be tempted to back him to still be there in July given the odds here are currently 40+. I doubt he will still be there in July but I do think these odds could come down a lot over the next month or 2
It should be possible to remove a lot of the risk with an insurance bet on jan to March. This way you’re covered if he makes a quick decision and if he doesn’t then the odds on after July will reduce over time, the key with the aim to remove liability before he jumps.
Sound logic there and not a bad strategy
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@john-folan Corbyn and Theresa May are cut from the same cloth when it comes to not knowing when to quit so it wouldn’t surprise me if he is working on a plan to allow him to continue for the short term at least with a view to using this time to turning his reputation as labour leader around and maybe staying longer.
Not sure yet if I will enter this market but at the moment it seems pretty safe to say he won’t quit this year so I would be tempted to back him to still be there in July given the odds here are currently 40+. I doubt he will still be there in July but I do think these odds could come down a lot over the next month or 2
It should be possible to remove a lot of the risk with an insurance bet on jan to March. This way you’re covered if he makes a quick decision and if he doesn’t then the odds on after July will reduce over time, the key with the aim to remove liability before he jumps.
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@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan I think he will stick it out as long as he can, it wouldn't surpise me if he was still here past April to be fair.
But the odds on the Jan till Mar are just over 2.0 which is pretty decent value to be honest - I'd be amazed if it was this side of Christmas.
I think longer. I think this is the start of a campaign to keep him in. Not sure it will work but Momentum are going to give it a go. Might consider laying that Jan to March
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@john-folan I think he will stick it out as long as he can, it wouldn't surpise me if he was still here past April to be fair.
But the odds on the Jan till Mar are just over 2.0 which is pretty decent value to be honest - I'd be amazed if it was this side of Christmas.
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@gary-brown said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan Keeping posting the advice etc John.
I lumped on in the election at odds of 1.53 on Thursday and it was less risk than any sports trading as it was a massive conservative majority. Bookies totally got it wrong with those odds.Cheers @Gary-Brown hopefully the crystal ball keeps working!
Question for you, @Will-B, @ryan-carruthers and @charles-cartwright. I am getting a feeling(plenty of articles about), Corbyn is going to try and hang on!! He is ramping up the rhetoric. He hasn’t really resigned, some wishy washy statement. He’s blaming everyone and if you watch the video I put on the off topic thread, the militant arm are doing the same. What do you all think?
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan Keeping posting the advice etc John.
I lumped on in the election at odds of 1.53 on Thursday and it was less risk than any sports trading as it was a massive conservative majority. Bookies totally got it wrong with those odds. -
Good chat anyway Charles. Given me something to chew on. Will carry on scalping Trumps price for a bit.
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@john-folan said in Political Trading Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in Political Trading Thread:
No one is lower than Alex Jones IMHO.
Anyone who suggests that the massacre of innocent schoolchildren was a hoax doesn't deserve oxygen.
Never knew that. Thought he was just a t**t
I notice he has lost several thousand followers since he made those comments. He can go at the top of the list. Jesus some people.
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@charles-cartwright said in Political Trading Thread:
No one is lower than Alex Jones IMHO.
Anyone who suggests that the massacre of innocent schoolchildren was a hoax doesn't deserve oxygen.
Never knew that. Thought he was just a t**t
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
No one is lower than Alex Jones IMHO.
Anyone who suggests that the massacre of innocent schoolchildren was a hoax doesn't deserve oxygen.
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@charles-cartwright said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan said in Political Trading Thread:
Trump. The senate will not pass the impeachment and he will run. Will he win? Probably yes. If the same extreme is taken by the Labour Party(Democrats) in America. Twitter is now pretty much a left wing shouting platform.
Not sure about this John. No question that he will be impeached by the House and then acquitted by the Senate but the dynamics in the US are very different to the UK and the Dems would only need to flip a couple of states to turf him out.
Also, at least in the US, there are many more right wing nut jobs on social media than lefties and some of them make BoJo look like Nye Bevan.
Check out this beauty:
Interesting, I'm going to look into this a lot more. I just can't see him being found guilty and removed from office. It's never happened. I will always have a good look though. Especially where money is to be made. I'd be laying him though as his price will jump when the lower house does him.
Noooo not Alec Jones he is a lunatic!!! Funny tho. Maybe we should compile a list of left and right lunatics for a giggle.
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@john-folan said in Political Trading Thread:
Trump. The senate will not pass the impeachment and he will run. Will he win? Probably yes. If the same extreme is taken by the Labour Party(Democrats) in America. Twitter is now pretty much a left wing shouting platform.
Not sure about this John. No question that he will be impeached by the House and then acquitted by the Senate but the dynamics in the US are very different to the UK and the Dems would only need to flip a couple of states to turf him out.
Also, at least in the US, there are many more right wing nut jobs on social media than lefties and some of them make BoJo look like Nye Bevan.
Check out this beauty:
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@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:
@john-folan I think my views on politics are this, I don’t care I’m just going to trade it and make money.
Probably the most sensible comment I have read anywhere in the last week lol
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@john-folan I think my views on politics are this, I don’t care I’m just going to trade it and make money.
