Runnerjp - My Journey!
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Also thought I'd give my 2 cents on the topic of stopping at daily targets each day seeing as you guys were discussing it earlier.
I'm not hugely experienced on the trading side of it, but I do understand value and the psychological side of things, plus in relation to my poker background, I've always believed that if you have an edge it's never good to just arbitrarily stop.
Using poker analogies, I've always heard it's best to look at both poker and trading as one long continuous session, and not to worry too much about the short term or day to day results as long as you are doing things correctly and you have an edge.
For example, if you are a winning poker player, ie you have an edge, and any particular poker game is good on any given day, then it is always best to stay and continue playing as long as you still have an edge, (eg aren't too tired, tilted etc), regardless of short term results and whether you are winning or losing in that particular session.
Likewise If the game is bad, ie lots of other good players, you're feeling tired etc, then it's always best just to get up and go, and live to fight another day, regardless of how much money you are down or up on that particular day.
Both these decisions will maximise your longterm ev, when you have an edge, rather than saying I will win or lose say $200 today and then get up and go home.I believe this applies to trading also. If you make your 1 point and then stop for the day, when you still have an edge, ie have researched a couple more trades for later that day that you believe will be profitable, then you are literally costing yourself money in the longterm by stopping early for the day.
Again, it is important to get the balance, psychologically also. For example if you think that you will trade badly in the later trades because the earlier trades didn't go your way, and you get too psychologically affected and it affects your discipline, then you probably should stop for the day as you probably no longer have an edge that day, and will most likely make bad decisions and chase trades etc
So all i'm saying really is, look at trading as a long term game, try not to split it into individual days and targets, and just concentrate on making as many correct individual decisions as possible, whatever time of day, and focus on being decision orientated rather than too results orientated in the short term.
(all bearing in mind you do have a solid profitable long term strategy of course). -
@jarratt-perkins
Having made bots for the daily strategies but never really used them as I want to be able to check inplay stats and that games are lively enough, after Martin's blog post the other day I thought I'd experiment by duplicating that bot and including a few inplay parameters such as >10 total shots, >50 dangerous attacks, then going to run it side by side with the default one with no inplay stats input and using small stakes track them for a while and see how they compare.Will let you know how they get on.
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@darri - Actually you can now pump in live inplay data into the automation
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@jarratt-perkins no problem pal, keep up the posts! Automation scares me, purely because im a stat freak/nerd and prefer match flow and automation cant read all those YET. But i understand those with less time to sit and manually trade would reap rewards with it. I think we trade very similar entries so great hearing your posts mate
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@darri said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
@jarratt-perkins said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
Currently I have been looking at my trades and trying to get as close to that 1 point as possible and getting out! This does have flaws that sometimes I am risking a whole point that if its loses, I spend the whole day trying to gain my point back (This might reflect more when I build up my NAGS stuff).
I think I need to get my strats sorted (I have just about done with the selection process for FH, SH and Overs) so that I can record them and find my strike rate to adjust my risk and reward aims.
At the moment I think I am happy to to gain 25% green on any trade - Anything more is a bonus!
This could mean just 4 trades a day for the win and doesn't mean I have all my eggs in one basket.
Solid stuff mate, like hearing how others view trading and their styles. Is this perhaps where the downside of setting a 1 point and leave is. The types of strategies your using are more reliant on a strike rate over numerous selections rather than how they perform on the day. So for example 0.5 similar to my approach your looking for a high enough strike rate to be in profit long term. By limiting yourself to being selective of in and out each day your boxing out the upside and effect this strat has? For example say we have 2 losing days your really shortening your potential gain for the winning ones. Is maybe the approach of how each strategy/system is doing after set amount of trades a better approach than set day goals? So taking a long term view instead of each day. So after 10, 20, 50 or 100 trades this strategy is this x/y profit or loss. There is a saying about riding your profits in trading and i think a rigid approach like this can harm your potential growth. I understand the if your up then overrtrading can be a negative but essentially you should be trading a strategy that is long term profitable and aim to take advantage of winning days.
Just a different approach, and so others who read can also see the other side. I just cant see past the fact that your cutting your potential upside. Just my opinion remember and interested to see if this approach develops. Iv just seen members on here like charles and of course ryan/martin who take a more long term view with strategies seem to be the most consistent when trading.
Perfect post mate - In fact its what I am starting to turn too doing soon hopefully. The current issue is I can't get on them all (hence automation). As soon as that is done I think I will do exactly that and trade them all!
For now I am sticking to the 1 point as its a good daily aim and helps the bank grow
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@jarratt-perkins said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
Currently I have been looking at my trades and trying to get as close to that 1 point as possible and getting out! This does have flaws that sometimes I am risking a whole point that if its loses, I spend the whole day trying to gain my point back (This might reflect more when I build up my NAGS stuff).
I think I need to get my strats sorted (I have just about done with the selection process for FH, SH and Overs) so that I can record them and find my strike rate to adjust my risk and reward aims.
At the moment I think I am happy to to gain 25% green on any trade - Anything more is a bonus!
This could mean just 4 trades a day for the win and doesn't mean I have all my eggs in one basket.
Solid stuff mate, like hearing how others view trading and their styles. Is this perhaps where the downside of setting a 1 point and leave is. The types of strategies your using are more reliant on a strike rate over numerous selections rather than how they perform on the day. So for example 0.5 similar to my approach your looking for a high enough strike rate to be in profit long term. By limiting yourself to being selective of in and out each day your boxing out the upside and effect this strat has? For example say we have 2 losing days your really shortening your potential gain for the winning ones. Is maybe the approach of how each strategy/system is doing after set amount of trades a better approach than set day goals? So taking a long term view instead of each day. So after 10, 20, 50 or 100 trades this strategy is this x/y profit or loss. There is a saying about riding your profits in trading and i think a rigid approach like this can harm your potential growth. I understand the if your up then overrtrading can be a negative but essentially you should be trading a strategy that is long term profitable and aim to take advantage of winning days.
Just a different approach, and so others who read can also see the other side. I just cant see past the fact that your cutting your potential upside. Just my opinion remember and interested to see if this approach develops. Iv just seen members on here like charles and of course ryan/martin who take a more long term view with strategies seem to be the most consistent when trading.
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@martin-futter Yes I have seen your members filters - more than 1 way to skin a cat as the say
I also think that by recording you might spot something that you didn't notice before ... like hitting over 2.5 goal then notice that all the games have had a fhg (Key I think for over 2.5)
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03/12/19
Thanks @Dan-Pearce - Spot on mate and as long as you get the selections right then the automation shouldn't be doing to much different then if you traded it live!
Yesterday was a good day!
Fitih Karagumruk I had as a BTTS and over 2.5 - I did my usual lays and 1-1 was hit . Job done and a very good return on this at 0.55 points profit!
The next was an inplay back of 0.5mg @ 1.5 and 2.0. Sporting Lisbon u23 had conceded a goal in everyone of their matches and the SOT reflected this could happen again. It was a injury time pen that brought in the green and job done by 1pm!
+1.3!
Some thoughts a had today was "what would I be happy with for each trade for green?"
Currently I have been looking at my trades and trying to get as close to that 1 point as possible and getting out! This does have flaws that sometimes I am risking a whole point that if its loses, I spend the whole day trying to gain my point back (This might reflect more when I build up my NAGS stuff).
I think I need to get my strats sorted (I have just about done with the selection process for FH, SH and Overs) so that I can record them and find my strike rate to adjust my risk and reward aims.
At the moment I think I am happy to to gain 25% green on any trade - Anything more is a bonus!
This could mean just 4 trades a day for the win and doesn't mean I have all my eggs in one basket.
Have great day all!
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@jarratt-perkins sounds like things are going in the right direction. It’s easy to think of the what ifs afterwards.
That’s why I like to stick to the automation for most of my trades. I set it up in the morning or more often than not the night before. Leave it and go to work. The worst thing for me is checking my bf app at work. Need to get out of that habit but it’s not easy.
Best of luck for the rest of the week and look forward to reading your report tomorrow
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02/12/19
I stuck with my 1 selection yesterday of Mainz and finished 2-1.
I with the red card I decided to take risk and not cover the 0-2 as i could see the home team pushing for a goal and 1-1 came very early second half for the win.
0.4 points profit for the day (seems to be a thing). I did think about going for 2 points on this but then the after thought was "what if it loses!". That's 2 points down and a lot to claw back.
I am working on final bits of my data today so should have a larger selections of matches to go at by the weekend to get the 1 point I am dreaming of!
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Had a hectic weekend so didn't have time to do write ups but learnt ALOT!
29/11/19
I love me some A League - Got into it when me Lad was born and I used to do the morning shift so at 5am whats better then watching some Aussy footy!
I think every Trader out there was on this one for goal but it never came! I had my trade on the over 2.5 and at HT had scratch on 2-0 .... the shots came but never did the goals.
Sometimes you have everything you need but if that ball does not go in the back of the net its pointless.
-1.15 points to start the day....
I had a very busy day at work so couldn't do anything and then had family round so the night was gone. The only thing was I had the FA cup on in the background and noticed shot after shot. At HT a backed over 0,5 at 1.5 and evens ... 90 mins, 24 shots ... 0-0! - 91 min goal... PHEW!
-0.4 points today
30/11/19
Family day again and this is shouting to me "Automation...Automation" . So I need to get my head down with my selections and building the automation on this asap!
A League strikes again with Brisbane and ANOUTHER 0-0 and 31 shots!!! -1.25 for this one as i covered 0-2 2-0 (Need to tighten up my selections as sometimes I search for the trade within a game rather then the Game for the Trade)
Melbourne came up trumps though and ended 2-3 and gave me 0.35 points .... -0.9 points down!
At the moment the reason I am mostly doing the 2.5 start I have as its easy to manage as its goes done from kick off and if i get pulled away i don't need to do anything for it still to win.
Annoyingly I couldn't do anything more for the rest of the day so -0.9 down.
01/12/19
Long story short... the A league Delivered today! both games came in ... 1.25 point up down for day!
So after that I ended up the 3 days i ended basically scratch but I have learnt some valuable things!
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I need to press on with my selections and automation to help during this busy period.
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I need to get my spreadsheet sorted today so I can track selections.
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I also feels that 1 point goal is still right for me at the moment but I also want to keep track of "what could have been". I think I will have one live bot doing the 1 point done a day and also a bot in sim mode that will just keep going to give me an idea of what if....
So Today looks pants and I only have 1 selection in my filters for over 2.5 start and that is Mainz - the rest may be inplay!
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28/11/19
So I have taken the horses out of this as after a bit of thought I am going to do that as a sep bank after this is nailed down!
Yesterday I didn't have any nailed down picks although I did have several picks for europa they are never great to put your full trust in, so stuck to some inplay spotting.
First up in play was the Aussie women's game for second-half goal but that came to early so no trade (Like to show that the entry points are key)
Maritimo U23 v Sporting Braga U23 - This looked good for a second-half goal. Got matched at 1.5 and soon after a goal goes in giving me 25% of the goal done.
Nothing caught my eye after that so it was onto the Europa Games with these selections for over 2.5:
Krasnodar V Basel
Besiktas vSlovan
AZ V Oaritizan
Astana V Man u (Only decided on this after seeing teams news and thinking btts rather than the over 2.5)
Yong Boys V Porto
Arsenal V FrankfurtSo the First game Krasnodar V Basel was 0-0 at half time so you have 2 choices here - back 02 20 for scratch or drip the over 0.5 - i did the latter as shots on target where low and thought may be low scoring after all and happy to risk 2 points on this ... the goal in 72 min gave me full on that start but was a 0.25 loss so scratch for the day!
Next, I had az and Besitakes for over 2.5. Both came in for just under 1 point profit and I was done (not gonna chase that 20p).
The Astana V Man came in nicely IF I decided to go with it but the odds were so low on over 0.5 (8.0 to lay) I decided to drip back the over 0.5 at 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0 ... early goal stopped that and after looking at it I should have stuck to my plan as it was great for an over 2.5 trade!
I was done dusted and getting tea ready now.
The other trades would have also won!
What next - I am going to stick to my 1point aday but record the other picks to compare what will have happened so when it comes to automation I might go full-on!
Today I am WFH so I will look to also get my database picks sorted! I am currently On the Aussy game for my 2.5 over and its 1-0 ... fingers crossed!
I am also sat on the lay the draw in the cricket as recommended for a nice top up incase 1 day I have no fixtures
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27/11/19
So today I am done by 13:14!
I had 5 picks today that I was interested in with 4 in the CPL.
These games I expected a high chance of over 2.5 and btts (I like btts with over 2.5 as give chance for both team to try)
Here where my selections:
now return for a 1pt stake was about 0.3pt return on my C/S lays but I still saw value in that so took it. Another way I may play these in the future are to look at halftime and if 1-0 0-1 or 0-0 I will play the second half. Note i don't add 2-0 or 0-2 as this a a traders nightmare score as with a 2 goal lead teams can park the bus. How often do you see loads of goals first half to have nothing the second!
So i am done with just over 1 point profit for the day.
If anyone is interested and the reason I posted is my other trade today would have been West Brom for over 2.5 using CS lays.
I was also going to lay these for 1pt risk
couger kid - makambe - blaster yeatsLets see how my day would have panned our IF I carried on
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Yesterdays update
I thought I would go back a couple of days as I actually started 3 days ago and its good to show you how well it can go and other days a bit bumpy!
24/11/2019
Central Coast was my first pick of the day for a second half goal if 0-0 or 1-1 at HT. It was 00 at HT and I was in the que to back over 0.5mg at odd of 1.5 and 2 .... goal goes in early so no trade. The lesson here is that I used to think "I missed it - I will go in again and lay 1-0" but the game ended 1-0 and the old me would have lost but the new me just walked away!
Hull city and Man Utd games where the only other picks I had today and I had it down for over 2.5 mg and BTTS so what i do is lay the following scorelines ... 00 10 01 20 02 from the off. i staked 1 point for around half a point return both came in so around 1 point made
25/11/2019
Monday was quite but I keep an eye on the inplay action while at work just checking every 45 minutes to see if anything catches my eye. 2 games look good for a goal in the second half being Pegasus and Chennaiyin - half a point on at 1.5 and half a point on at evens .... before had late goals which took my profit for the day to 1.5! Job done by 3!!
26/11/2019
Get ready for a bumpy ride here!
The last 2 days looked easy enough and have showed that some days you just get in and out but others can be a rollercoster.
So in play the Philippines women's game look great for second half goal ... staked my 1 point on entry points .... ended 0-0! 1 point down for the day (I am recording all my trades so I can see if its worth removing some ect)
Next up was Gleenforde in the 14:00 for a bad tipster lay ... my risk was 6:25 on this as I was trying to do it on my mobile (need to create a bot) - it lost (which means I won) and my profit was half a point so now ended up half a point down!
I then traded the 16:20 at Wolves. I could see from the race that Waliyak was ready to win after two seconds and upped in trip and i managed to get on at 2.10 which i saw as value (key point i will cover another day). I stuck a lay bet in so that it would leave half a point profit it it won and removed the red in play. It hit and won = back to scratch.
Next 2 games I had down for over 2.5 goal and did my cs lay. At this point these are all I have for the day as in the Champ games nothing caught my eye. I did note Leeds as a second half goal but the SOT didn't fill me with confidence so I left it alone (It did end 1-0) . so it was either going to be a winning day or losing. The selections where Luton Town and Fulham. Luton managed 1-1 early on so that was nice and easy. I had to wait till the 89th minute till 3-0 same for win with fulham but job done. I ended yesterday with 0.9 point profit as they didn't return the full half a point.
I hate typing these up as look like after booms but can show you the ups and down so far and stick to your guns. Once I have my db sorted I will be able to show some of my selections in the morning so that you can all see my process.
Fingers crossed today for a green day!!!
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@keith-dow Love it, glad you are making some nice gains from following a logical path my friend.
I think everybody has fallen foul of trying to find value when there isn't any. I've started at stats before and tried to talk myself into finding value.
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This is great to read. I just started here last week and found I’m in the right place. I’ve already fallen foul to chasing loss, over trading and trying desperately to find value where I honestly know there is none. The forum has been brilliant in giving me guidance, reassurance and advice. I payed attention and doubled a (very) small bank in under a week. Keeping my stakes small and trying desperately to trade with my head, not my emotions.
Looking forward to following your adventure. -
if you can't get it right with a small bank you will NEVER get it right with a large one!
True words spoken!
I would regard myself as a successful trader, but I'm still a work in progress. You see I wasn't born with great discipline that many other traders seem to have in abundance. At times I still over trade, push boundaries etc. When I feel like I'm doing that then I withdraw most of my money from Betfair and start again with a small bank. Discipline can be worked on, it must be worked on.
