The road to full time
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Always a slight niggle of doubt when you have been on a good run of days that variance will slap you, but managed to end the whole week by having a fantastic weekend.Im not going to go into detail like i do in the midweek ones as its too much to just post. So ill just do a slight update/summary as this post will kind of sound like im boasting and i hate when people gloat about wins all the time. So, so far FHGs are really in a good vein of form, the filter has managed to pick out some really good value picks. SHGs have been getting back to grips and back on track with strike rates. I have plans for how i want my trading to be looking like at end of november and this will really set us up nicely. Ill continue to post the FHGs as they are getting good returns and others seem to like them.
A few members getting caught in the FOMO mentality and its something i think every trader has surely had. I have always struggled with it with trading. I spoke to a trader a while back and he said he had to stop using the forum and social media because he wanted to cut out the noise and distractions. I think FOMO is a need early doors as it gets you to realise it doesnt work and you need to focus on your own styles. You will notice the best traders on here focus on one or two ways to trade and only post them. They dont get caught up in the emotions of others. Its only really since befor start of summer i really dug down to that way of thinking too. My trading has started to really grow because i focused on my own style. Start with one way master it, make it consistent, grow it, paper trade another at same time then complete the cycle again. As a side note however, it can be hugely beneficial to follow how others are picking games. Look at keiths picks, ryan picks, martins email picks they are all picking them for reasons watch how the markets respond in these games. This way you can start to judge how to trade your own way in same situations. It worked wonders when i followed ryans plans and how he researches games and taking the advice martin gives about value/price in most of his videos.
Hopefully people managed to follow some of the trades this weekend. Its been a nice int break but bring back the domestic leagues!!
Anyway here are the results updated:
12/13 oct = +13.7
Oct 19 = +21.8 -
Just an update of my trades since my last post. Been sitting waiting for opportunities during this international break. Like i said previously their isnt reliable stats for them as teams chop and change all the time, so for me price is key and taking prices that match the games action.
Holland was my favourite trade as within both trades being matched both had a goal so easy trades. The reason got on was 1 the price seemed huge for a team dominating and for the away side to be tiring badly. 2 depay was starting to take centre stage and pick apart the holes. These 2 factors got me involved, surprisingly NI took the lead so instead of just backing another goal at evens i layed NI match odds at around 1.6/7 with a fraction of the profit from the ov 0.5 trade.
Rayo has been the only game to pop up on the filter for my main strats and didnt disappoint. I think it was mentioned in the football thread this la liga 2 can be a huge value market as prices are very generous. I think it has something to do with action and stats. I was watching the flow of the game and was end to end and blocked shots. Once 1 or 2 more attempts or key breaks happened i jumped on and again a quick turnaround trade here.
Rest of the games were pure value picks, the price seemed to generous so latched on. Had a stream for all of them both on pc and laptop so could follow. Nice end to midweek action. Couple of things to look forward to over the weekend but again pure value hunting over int break. Looking forward to the end of it tho and back to the proper stuff.
Oh and another couple of selections hit over the last few days with overreactions both winning
results;
09-10 oct = +8.8
Oct 19 = +8.1 -
Interesting day for trading, as always with international breaks youve just got to be careful with selections. I managed to find a few good opportunities from my main strategies today. Everything went through the same criteria as any other week for league games but internationals for me are more price hunting and managed to find that in the womens games today.Wales game was live on bbc four and managed to trade it pretty well. The prices for the womens football is so out of sync so value is everywhere and its great. The knowledge i got and data gathered from the world cup and some of the super league games already this season back up my trade here. Managed to get into the market at a very healthy price come the 76 min, could have LTD but backing the ov was more than adequate here. Wales tirelessly opened up belarus every attack and was a trend from the world cup women in the last 15 mins defenses are knackered and barely manage a sprint. Not being sexist at all here and it actually makes it a enjoyable watch at end as its frantic. Goal came in the 83 min and wales went on to win.
Managed to jump on a test for overreactions today in the national league which had huge liquidity. Hypothesis is that games which stats suggest is a low scoring first half that then get a goal before 30 mins then the overreact of odds on the 0ver 2.5 match goals market would tumble. They would then correct as the half closes and then can cash out at the correction point. So image above showed one of them, goal comes in under 2.5 price shoots up to 2.3/2.4 then as the half comes to a close re corrects itself back to normal price which between 1.5/1.85.
Added a filter now which should tick most of the basic boxes needed for a successful trade here. Will start to collect data on inplay stats and overall key things over next few months for it. Will post a running results end of every week to show the progress.
I will be excluding the results of the filter today from my P/L total as its not a main system yet.
So
08/10 = +1.9
Oct 19 = -0.7 -
@a-campbell thank you bud, i started it selfishly for myself to feel more accountable especially after posting trades on the forum. Then i thought how others setup theirs and all they do is show results and dont explain the process, they simply show that they are making stacks. So i thought id show a pretty open view of how i trade, and how hopefully i can turn from part time trader (student so actually trading full time hours) into a full time job. Its a long term view. I managed to take alot from the other blogs on here and online especially mark iversons, so hopefully i can give even small bits for other traders then its a good thing
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@ryan-carruthers just a misjudge of the stats, both teams have a high average of goals but not individually, misread should only have been a first half goal as they have a higher % of goals in half 1, first mistake in a good while tho
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@darri this thread is great to be able to follow your journey and also learn from it . thanks.
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@darri What caused you to bottle it do you think?
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Realise i havent been keeping this updated, im aware that my bank has actually reached a point in which im happy to up stakes. However with the start of a new season i dont think its wise. Probably going to continue this stake level until early next year. That way when i do up them bank is already at a higher level. Also there is alot more new members and traders of different levels now so going to start the whole posts from scratch. I think i enjoyed reading mark iversons blogs about cricket trading that it really got me hooked that this is great content for new traders, going to style it more like that. That way easier for a follow and for me to be active again on this. Im forever updating everything else so will make more of an effort to keep this going. Will only post when there is a point to talk about or a decent sample of games gone.
Today marks the first post of october so will start from here. I can only look in shame today. It marks a loss to the start of a month and actually was only a loss because of one blunder. The Voluntari game was a successful FHG, the stats looked good for a 2nd but i misread the stats and it cost me. Im forever a stickler for rules and research and i bottled it there.
On the other hand take that game away and its only a 0.6 point loss for the day. Over the last months of this thread i think i can accept that kind of day. FHG still firing away few more winter league selections creeping through so happy with its progress. SHG will pick up some winter league games now too so expect more selections to filter through. Its kind of the end of the summer leagues and what a summer its been. AFCON, Women World cup, cricket world cup and the summer leagues have really matured me as a trader and the processes i need to take the next steps.
Lets hope i can replicate it and continue in this form. Its kind of the whole purpose of why i went from a big bank back down to the 1k to try see if i could start from scratch if it all went wrong and to make sure i wasnt just on a wave of good luck. So far tho all systems look good. Additional paper testing of my 3rd portfolio strategy is coming along nicely and really looking forward to adding it.
As ever favourite trade of the day in image, i was going to post a losing trade but i think i prefer to explain losses rather than just post an image, talking about winners is a little smug sometimes.
07/10 pl= -2.6
Oct 2019 = -2.6 -
@darri Like that you ignored the end of the MLS because of iffy results, shows a lot of maturity as a trader well played matey!
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Posting this now as ill do a weekend roundup later.
Really consistent now, first time this season have been able to get a game from the winter leagues for a selection. I actually could have had a few from last nights MLS but decided against it as now its getting to end of that league starting to get a few iffy results.
Todays games were relatively easy to execute. I had these games stats looking great pre match and was actually excited because i gathered they would end up as good prices even before kick off.
Shanghai, playing at home against a team utterly useless away from home. Was a little surprised when el shaaraway was brought off but when ighalo came on and the way he was encouraging play to be quicker i know they werent going to just settle for a point. With shenzen pressing for a goal and points with relegation on the cards it was increasing the tendency for counters. I got in with a price of 2.2, Shanghai scored late on and therefore made cashing out a breeze. Could have held on but was at the price without liability on it wasnt much difference.
Triglav much the same but reversed and also a reversed score. When i managed to start watching the stream i got a real surprise by how even the game was. Wasnt the old tika taka style but was end to end. The home side scored first and were deemed the underdog but as with all my trades by getting in later even if the dog scores im still getting in and out the same way. Removed liability when they scored and put an order in when i could gather a good % of my potential profit.
Good end to the midweek action, havent looked too far to weekend yet, would be nice to see some winter league games come through like the did today. Will have to remind myself about sticking to the plan unlike last weekend which limited my profit.
Sept 2019
SHG: +4.3 points
FHG: + 7.9 points
LTD: + 2.2 points
OT: + 6.8 pointsOverall sept = + 21.2 points
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Just a quick update on my trades as wont be able to trade next couple of days.
2 games which have come up on my filter and 2 winning trades. Im really happy with both. Because im still on the summer leagues its really easy to just focus on them and to be able to monitor them easily. Both had great stats pre match, in play i didnt need to see stats as was watching them and even when the teams went in front there was no time wasting shenanigans.
Approaching the end of sept and having only really traded half of the month im more than happy with how its going. Busy weekend coming up so hopefully i can come out positively from it.
Sept 2019:
SHG: + 4.3 points
FHG: +7.9 points
LTD: - 0.4 points
OT: +6.8 pointsOverall sept = +18.6 points
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Having a cold and having no plans all weekend because of it, is something if i go full time will need to address. Sitting watching football all day is great but not good if your actual trading plan involves very little games. With it still only being early in the main leagues iv forced a few trades that were outside the plan. These are the kind of trades i did when i first tried trading they simply do not work long term. Thats the whole weekend being hampered by silly trades that rookies make.
Im sat looking at my tradesheets and inputting the P/L on spreadsheets and getting annoyed at what happened this weekend. Of the trades that were on the actual trading plans before each day i would have executed 6 with 5 winning and 1 loss. That would have resulted in a +7 point sat/sun which with me still only trading the summer leagues would have been a great return.
The positives are however the trading plans are working great, iv spotted my mindset changing so can correct it and ending the weekend in a decent profit cannot be grumbled at. Im a big advocate for how martin and ryan harp on about mastering one strategy then paper trading another. Iv for the past few months been testing a set and forget system and its had a very good month and its consistency is looking good. Still nowhere near putting money on it as need alot more data on it first.
Anyway to round off weekend happy with my trades highlighted my favourite top of the post. I think this weekend was a reminder of how much iv changed since i started, seeing the bad trades come back like i used to trade really shows you have got to stick to plans and dont deviate unless there is significant reason to do so. Iv limited my banks growth by going back to silly mistakes. Onwards tho and looking forward to the coming weeks when more winter leagues start appearing on the filters.
Sept 2019
SHG: +2.3 points
FHG: +7.9 points
LTD: -0.4 points
OT: +6.8 pointsOverall = + 16.6 points
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Like every weekend you feel as a football trader that given the amount of matches/trading opportunities that you have to come away with a decent profit. I think new traders should be aware however that more matches and more trades can spiral and actually the weekend is the most dangerous time to trade. Take today for example i managed to bag 3/4 of my early trades, sitting nicely on a profit, then next 3 all dont come in shooting that profit right down. Now iv been doing this for a while now and know its just variance playing about. The thing that i really want to come away from this is that any profit is good profit, small consistent gains tally up.
In terms of todays trades, actually really disappointed in myself. Felt i dived into games i wouldnt normally and that culled alot of the profits today. The stats really arent strong enough indicators yet for the major european games and having any angle here is very limited. Im going to be more disciplined tomorrow as a reflection on today.
Another good day for the FHG. The current strike rate/price ratio is something im happy about, having tested it for most of last season feel confident im finding better games/entries. Highlighted in the image at top is my favourite for the day.
Hopefully with a lot more summer league games tomorrow i can find some good SH selections for LTD/LCS
Sept 2019:
SHG: +1 points
FHG: +4.3 points
LTD : -2 points
OT: +11.5 pointsOverall = + 14.8 points
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2/2 for todays trades, when i record the trades from cup football i never add them to my strategies P/L sheet they are purely opportunity trades so are reflected in the profits at the bottom of the post.
Really good day, the FHG strategy has really started to catch on and had a really good start to the season. Been finding it a lot harder for 2nd half picks just not enough games have been played yet to be really satisfied with stats. I tend to only be interested once a league hits 10 games played so typically 5 home and away each. So im still stuck on the summer leagues for next few weeks.
Started to get involved more on the forum to be more accountable for my trades and to interact with the new members iv not seen on the forum before. Hopefully this consistency of my trading continues for remainder of the month.
Sept 2019:
SHG: N/A
FHG: +3.5 points
LTD: N/A
2SHG: N/A
OT: +8.8 pointsOverall = + 12.3 points
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Just a quick update on some of the trades from international break. Honestly have had very little time to trade over last few months. Now that everything is settled i can turn attention to trading again.
I firmly believe price is more a factor for me for internationals than stats. This can be a risky assumption but i think for someone who has been trading for a while now im spotting more opportunities like these.
Happy with my form on returning, i wont include these results in the systems updates but will attach an opportunity trade count at the end.
SEPT 2019:
SHG: N/A
FHG: NA
LTD: N/A
2SHG: N/A
OT: +5.6 POINTSOVERALL = +5.6 POINTS
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So been away for a bit now, been moving flat and starting a new year on my course so decided to take a break from the site for a bit. Was also getting a bit burnout from some of the posts and ideas from the forum in general. Just re subscribed to the site and really looking forward to getting back into trading now that the season has started to take shape.
Gonna follow the same sort of layout as before but obviously trading isnt my only priority now. Iv been slightly tweaking some of my strategies to match with other ideas iv seen over the past few months and will instead post based on how each system is progressing kind of like how Charles is doing on his horse racing posts.
Really excited to be back and lets try get to that next level
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@darri great review of the summer buddy!
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My Summer Review
With the start of the main leagues about to kick in i wanted to summarise the summer and what my overall thoughts on my trading is for now and coming up.
Cricket:
What a summer of cricket! Unlike the football the season its still in full flow with the ashes and thats looking tastier than alot were maybe expecting. From a trading point of view it was my first full summer of trading the cricket. Having only started to trade it with the warm up series in ireland between WI, Bangla and IRE. I think i managed to transfer my knowledge of the sport nicely into some sort of trading plan. Over the whole summer i learned a lot, i think as i traded more i realised how to adapt knowledge/opinion/stats into opportunities. Cricket is a great sport for that. Im still at an early stage in cricket trading, being able to learn from others in the thread especially richard has really helped and implementing those tips into my trades worked wonders for consistency. Looking forward im happy with trading cricket in the future hoping to get involved in the t20 action. Promising start to my cricket portfolio.Horse Racing:
Trading on the horses has been a side project for me for a good while now. Its only been this last year that iv started to become consistent. Iv been trading the horses primarily on betdaq and its a joy to see the liquidity rise. However in recent months my trading activity in the sport has started to decline. My focus has been elsewhere by the success i had with the summer comps in other sports. I think the introduction of automation to my trades would be wise but right now im not in any rush. Im happy to keep it as a slow earner but not in any rush either to be scaling it up. As a part time trader i feel i cant give it enough attention and my focus is growing on the football in order to really maximise my strategies/edge. Hopefully a return to the sport will come again.Football:
I think its become obvious in my posts that football is my main sport. I traded the African nations, womens world cup and the major summer leagues all for a profit. Ideally i can continue the form from the summer into the main european leagues and see strides in my trading. I looked back at some of my trades not that long ago and how complicated i made it sound/look. What really changed for me this year was going back to simple systems. Simple systems that are easy to track, easy to implement and easy to scale. Tracking became my biggest effort but boy has it paid off, iv really turned a corner now and hoping to now push on now and scale slowly to making this sustainable in the long term future. Im looking forward to trading the major leagues this year feeling alot more confident than i did at the start of them this time last year.So some summer! Along with a lot of exciting things happening outside of trading for me im really looking forward to the future of trading. Summer has been kind to me but it sort of feels like that was pre season for trading in prep for this year. Im not getting carried away and chucking everything into this iv still got a few years left of my studies and very much plan on just growing a trading bank and seeing where it takes me. Starting to cut the distractions such as trading too many sports, strategies and games. Hopefully the rest of the year is as positive and i can continue to learn more from the community and help if the opportunity is there.
