Political Trading Thread

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Sanders now way out at 19.5 for next president. If he wins Michigan as expected I think that price will come way down.
According to my American friends, Biden and Sanders a lot closer than the betfair market seems to think.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

Update

Joe Biden WIN Massachusetts Primary

Lovely 1.38 lay!

@John-Folan did you get on this with me?

Yep I did follow. Mad price

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@ryan-carruthers Just laid Biden now at 1.26. Surely Trump's team are gonna dig some (or make up some) nasty dirt on him soon.
Also, just for fun, backed Buttigeig for 2 quid at 850.
Thinking that Buttigeig is supporting Biden now so if Trump manages to put Biden in jail then he may rejoin the race

Ryan

Update

Joe Biden WIN Massachusetts Primary

Lovely 1.38 lay!

@John-Folan did you get on this with me?

Ryan

@john-folan I’m still with you on that, something about that race that I don’t see it still being plane sailing.

American system is mental lol I always think politics is Hollywood for ugly people.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

@john-folan it would be mentally good, imagine what you would say to her.... you are fake news....

The whole process in America seems bonkers. Same over here.

Still got a suspicion Keit Starmer won’t win the labour leadership. I’ll take the loss on it if I’m wrong tho. No biggie.

Ryan

@john-folan it would be mentally good, imagine what you would say to her.... you are fake news....

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

Just placed a lay on Sanders to win Massachusetts, cannot believe the odds are this low considering the fact he is barely ahead of Elizabeth Warren - can see it drifting out a bit.

I really want Warren to win. Only so I can watch her debate Trump. Can you imagine?

"Facist"
"W***e"
"Racist"
"Lesbian"
"Russian Collaborator"
"I'm gonna grab you by the p***y"

Ryan

Just placed a lay on Sanders to win Massachusetts, cannot believe the odds are this low considering the fact he is barely ahead of Elizabeth Warren - can see it drifting out a bit.

John Folan

@rob-arkell said in Political Trading Thread:

Been thinking about the US elections. Not sure if this would work but.....
If I backed Sanders as next president at 4.6. Then laid him as democrat nominee at 2.12. I'm thinking that if he wins the democratic nominee, his price as president should drop way down to under 2 and cancel out my lay and hopefully give me overall profit. If he loses democrat then my lay would pay off and cancel out my back on becoming president.
Does this make sense?
Sort of like an arb bet

It does and that is not a bad idea at all. Ideally you would want the lay to come in for the best profit. Not sure what the democrats chances are up against Trump but I bet the move in would be significant as a lot of democrat supporters would get excited and back him.

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Been thinking about the US elections. Not sure if this would work but.....
If I backed Sanders as next president at 4.6. Then laid him as democrat nominee at 2.12. I'm thinking that if he wins the democratic nominee, his price as president should drop way down to under 2 and cancel out my lay and hopefully give me overall profit. If he loses democrat then my lay would pay off and cancel out my back on becoming president.
Does this make sense?
Sort of like an arb bet

John Folan

@Rob-Arkell here you go mate.

My positions haven’t changed on the labour leadership. Only value left if you aren’t committed is a lay of Keir Starmer.

Ryan

@john-folan I’ve followed you on the labour lay.

Martin

@john-folan yep was amazed at the price, he gets so much media attention i just don't see how he doesn't win.

Ryan

Yesssss I have just taken my profit 19 into 5.5 That is potentially up there with one of my greatest trades I have ever made!

John Folan

@Martin-Futter. Remember when you said Trump was value at evens? He’s into 1.75 now to lay. Hopefully come in even more when he’s acquitted. So nice call. Have greened up now and left a fair bit on the overall win. At the moment the democrats are doing their level best to lose the election. That little stunt of Pelosi’s did not help matters at all. Really not sure what is going on with the liberal left anywhere in the world currently. Throwing their toys out of the pram everywhere. People getting fed up with them as they take things too far maybe?

Sanders worth a straight back for getting the Democratic nomination. Warren and Biden have no chance. @Ryan-Carruthers has also made anyone who followed(I did) by backing Bloomberg at 19’s. He is now 5.5. Taken a whack of profit and leaving some on the win too. Not sure about this Buttogieg bloke but have taken a position at 7’s hoping to trade out later on.

Good luck if you follow.

Labour Leader
I cannot see why these prices are doing what they are. I’ve doubled down on my Keir Starmer lay. Way too short now.

The prices for the top three are completely wrong. Long Bailey looking most likely to get it in my opinion. She is the Momentum darling and they own the Labour Party and the ONLY reason Corbyn wasn’t forced out immediately. Nandy still a dark horse and worth a back. I am not moving my position on these two. One of them will steam and combined with a Starmer drift will provide profit.

Again good luck if you follow.

John Folan

Right there is some value in the next labour leader market at last. I have backed Nandy and Long Bailey to win. I am also scalping Keir Starmers price while it’s stupidly low. He is way too short. The Corbyn arm of the Labour Party will do everything to stop him getting near the leadership.

Can’t be bothered with the American election at the moment. I need to do more research and I haven’t got the motivation

John Folan

@will-b said in Political Trading Thread:

@john-folan Thanks for that John, I'll give this a go with small stakes to see how I get on

It takes a while to get into the rhythm but this makes money week after week

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@john-folan Thanks for that John, I'll give this a go with small stakes to see how I get on

John Folan

Some money floating in for Bernie Sanders. Interesting.