2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer

You can get them automatically via lookup on spreadsheet - which should save time.

[Richard Latimer]

@dave-jessop said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Where do I find the ELO ratings on the software?

I had to get them manually from tennisabstract

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Interesting the Querrey one, my stats have him as heavy heavy fav at 1.11 which for me would mean let them both have a serve if they hold then back him and trade out first set, he has a high % to win the first set in your numbers and also the ELO diff is pretty good and backed up by PJH differences!

Looks a nice find that!

[A Former User]

2 plays for me today. I think both Cecchinato and Cuevas look over priced. I’d have Cecchinato closer to pick’em and I’d have Cuevas as slight favourite here.
Will let both players serve then back if no breaks and be out by the end of S1.

[Richard Latimer]

So this is where I'm leaning tomorrow:

Category Tournament Date Player 1 P1 ELO P2 ELO Player 2 ELO Diff. Surface P1 PJH P2 PJH P1 W Set 1 P2 W Set 1 P1 W Set 2 P2 W Set 2 P1 W Set 3 P2 W Set 3
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Gasparyan M. 1443 1729 Pliskova Ka. -286 Y 58.91% 63.13% 37% 35% 53% 85% 44% 56%
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Kukushkin M. 1479 1759 Querrey S. -280 Y 68.73% 72.41% 35% 58% 40% 47% 50% 57%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 14:00 Tsurenko L. 1532 1637 Goerges J. -105 Y 57.34% 61.81% 42% 35% 37% 45% 50% 60%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 14:00 Sevastova A. 1615 1421 Gavrilova D. 194 Y 59.45% 55.83% 70% 26% 55% 37% 33% 67%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 15:30 Hercog P. 1487 1679 Strycova B. -192 Y 60.13% 63.20% 35% 45% 40% 45% 20% 67%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 17:00 Kudermetova V. 1549 1685 Bencic B. -136 Y 55.78% 60.82% 55% 55% 65% 75% 50% 56%

1. I've been through all match ups looking for ELO's of 100+ to start.

2. I've then gone through their career record on grass and deleted anything without a winning record season wise so if 7 seasons for example then 4 of those would need to have finished with a winning record on grass.

3. I've removed any matchups where the PJH% doesn't tally with the ELO ranking. So for example Ostapenko is an ELO favourite but her PJH% is lower than her opponent.

4. I've tabled win % for each of the 1s2, 2nd, 3rd set to see where each player is statistically stronger in the majority of their matches.

From doing this it looks as though the following moves could prove beneficial if the scenario arises inplay.

Ka Pliskova - If she gets broken or loses the first set I will lay the opponent as her win record second set is VERY strong.
Sam Querrey - If he gets broken in the first set I will lay the opponent. Undecided whether to take a small loss 2nd set or not as his stats not amazing for 2nd set.
J Goerges - If she is tied at 1 set a piece I will back her for the 3rd set and look to green on a break
A Sevastova - If she gets broken first set I will lay the opponent and look to green on a break either 1st or 2nd set.
B Strycova - if the score is tied at 1-1 I will back Strycova for the 3rd set and aim to green on a break.
B Bencic - If she is broken first set I will lay the opponent and aim to green on a break either 1st or 2nd set.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Looking at Fed, Lopez and Bencic. If any fall behind in the first set or lose first set I will lay the opp then double down on that lay if they fall further behind with a view to green up at the earliest.

Not a single qualifier there.

[Richard Latimer]

Looking at Fed, Lopez and Bencic. If any fall behind in the first set or lose first set I will lay the opp then double down on that lay if they fall further behind with a view to green up at the earliest.

[Richard Latimer]

Right now the fixtures lists for tennis tomorrow is showing.......nothing!! Well, there are four on the stats site but nothing of interest in those for me anyway.

I don't like my current plan.

Think it's fine perhaps as one angle but what I think I'd like to do is find players with the mental fortitude to go and finish the job at 1 set a piece (2 a piece in mens grand slams obviously).

Clearly the rewards will be greater in the final set even if I just look to green up on a break even if there will be the odd potential banana skin. Thing is, doing it like I am there's already banana skins and without some sort of stop loss I'll make minimal gains greening up when things are all square again.

I'm not built right to accept a stop loss. If it loses and I save money....yay.....happy days. If it turns around soon thereafter and I took a loss where there was a green it will annoy and potentially derail me haha!!

Better to stake within bounds where I can accept loss, have potential for much greater green when I do cash out like with a 2nd half bet on the football.

Sooooooo.......

In a nutshell, my plan will be to find players who will come back and win that 2nd set as well as players who will win the final set (or flatter to deceive in that regard).

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

I've pulled a bunch of potentials together for tomorrow all with ELO over 100 difference between players and all with players confident on the surface.

The figures shown to the right are for % the ELO favourite has gone down in straight sets CSA (clean sheet against) and % the dog has come through in straight sets CSF (clean sheets for).

Could the experts please take a look and tell me what you think? Am I potentially missing something? Are any of the figures alarming?

Ostapenko for example doesn't look as good as some.

I've got sofascore with notifications for break and sets. The plan will be to lay any of the ELO dogs a break up and then double down on that lay if they break again or win the first set. As soon as I get the chancee I either green up or escape at break even if that's the only thing possible. It's kind of like what I am doing on the football which is working.

Is there an obvious flaw in my plan? It didn't work so well today but then I took a trade I never should have and then waited too long to get in another.

Very small profit from Kenin and Barry which both went to plan.

Barty even. Don't think Barry was playing

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

I've pulled a bunch of potentials together for tomorrow all with ELO over 100 difference between players and all with players confident on the surface.

The figures shown to the right are for % the ELO favourite has gone down in straight sets CSA (clean sheet against) and % the dog has come through in straight sets CSF (clean sheets for).

Could the experts please take a look and tell me what you think? Am I potentially missing something? Are any of the figures alarming?

Ostapenko for example doesn't look as good as some.

I've got sofascore with notifications for break and sets. The plan will be to lay any of the ELO dogs a break up and then double down on that lay if they break again or win the first set. As soon as I get the chancee I either green up or escape at break even if that's the only thing possible. It's kind of like what I am doing on the football which is working.

Is there an obvious flaw in my plan? It didn't work so well today but then I took a trade I never should have and then waited too long to get in another.

Very small profit from Kenin and Barry which both went to plan.

[A Former User]

Wow FA2 looks a player on grass!!

[Martin]

@darri Murray makes me enjoy watching tennis more, shame he isn't playing with his brother at Wimbledon!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer the BTC stats has them. If you click on a match-up, then "Forecast" the stat you are looking for is PJH (projected Hold). Its displayed in a percentage.

[Richard Latimer]

@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer looks interesting Richard. Have you thought about incorporating Projected Hold numbers into the equation? For example, (i've not looked at the actual numbers) but i'd assume Schwartmans Projected hold will be quite low. He's a return orientated player, so there tend to be more breaks of serve in his games as his serve is average but his return game is v strong. So i think laying him a break up is a good trade. Goffin is similar, and Zverev loves a comeback, so this also looks a good trade (although watch out for Zverev, his form isn't great and he's carrying a knock on the knee). I don't know too much about the WTA compared with the ATP so can't comment too much on those. I've rambled a bit here, but basically, i think adding the two players Projected Hold Figures into your sheet would add another useful layer of data.

Where do I find this?

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer looks interesting Richard. Have you thought about incorporating Projected Hold numbers into the equation? For example, (i've not looked at the actual numbers) but i'd assume Schwartmans Projected hold will be quite low. He's a return orientated player, so there tend to be more breaks of serve in his games as his serve is average but his return game is v strong. So i think laying him a break up is a good trade. Goffin is similar, and Zverev loves a comeback, so this also looks a good trade (although watch out for Zverev, his form isn't great and he's carrying a knock on the knee). I don't know too much about the WTA compared with the ATP so can't comment too much on those. I've rambled a bit here, but basically, i think adding the two players Projected Hold Figures into your sheet would add another useful layer of data.

[A Former User]

Plan for today:

I will back Simon if he losses Set 1 and be out the trade by the end of Set 2
I will back Coric if he loses Set 1 and be out the trade by the end of set 2.

[Richard Latimer]

I've pulled a bunch of potentials together for tomorrow all with ELO over 100 difference between players and all with players confident on the surface.

The figures shown to the right are for % the ELO favourite has gone down in straight sets CSA (clean sheet against) and % the dog has come through in straight sets CSF (clean sheets for).

Could the experts please take a look and tell me what you think? Am I potentially missing something? Are any of the figures alarming?

Ostapenko for example doesn't look as good as some.

I've got sofascore with notifications for break and sets. The plan will be to lay any of the ELO dogs a break up and then double down on that lay if they break again or win the first set. As soon as I get the chancee I either green up or escape at break even if that's the only thing possible. It's kind of like what I am doing on the football which is working.

Is there an obvious flaw in my plan? It didn't work so well today but then I took a trade I never should have and then waited too long to get in another.

[A Former User]

How good was it to see Andy Murray playing some nice tennis again?!

[A Former User]

@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@gary-finnigan ha sorry, it’s what I type instead of writing Felix Auger-Aliassime. Just much easier and quicker to type.

haha yeah i can see what you mean

[A Former User]

@gary-finnigan ha sorry, it’s what I type instead of writing Felix Auger-Aliassime. Just much easier and quicker to type.