"The Good Day" LTD system

[A Former User]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Betfair are having a bit of a wobble with this! It’s in play now and currently 0-1 but for some reason they’ve closed the market as a 0-0 draw! They really are useless!!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Link above now updated with latest results - keep forgetting to change this!

Without me digging through can you tell me your results and profit for odds no more than 3.5?

14 selections, 11 winners, 2.2 points profit and 6.6% ROI.

Interesting. Despite the better strike rate my results for these low odds is poor so far.

13 winners, 5 losses - About 2% yield.

That said, a few days ago mine read 12 winners from 13 selections so it will be interesting to seee if yours continues in this vein. I hate removing selections based on odds and right now data sample tiny but it's food for thought long term.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Link above now updated with latest results - keep forgetting to change this!

Without me digging through can you tell me your results and profit for odds no more than 3.5?

14 selections, 11 winners, 2.2 points profit and 6.6% ROI.

Interesting. Despite the better strike rate my results for these low odds is poor so far.

13 winners, 5 losses - About 2% yield.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Link above now updated with latest results - keep forgetting to change this!

Without me digging through can you tell me your results and profit for odds no more than 3.5?

14 selections, 11 winners, 2.2 points profit and 6.6% ROI.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Link above now updated with latest results - keep forgetting to change this!

Without me digging through can you tell me your results and profit for odds no more than 3.5?

[A Former User]

Link above now updated with latest results - keep forgetting to change this!

[A Former User]

@denis-caunce

Hi Dennis, apologies for the slow reply (I've been away for a couple of weeks). Firstly, thank you for engaging with this thread/concept - the exact reason I shared it with the community was to have different sets of eyes look at it. The analysis you have done so far is very interesting and I'd be keen to see it if you wouldn't mind sharing it with me (DM me and ill send you my email address). What I'm particularly interested in, is seeing your analysis/results when you take out the lower English leagues (everything below league one). If you haven't read the full thread and some of my earlier posts you might not know that i'm very selective on the leagues and pretty much only stick to major Euro leagues top divisions, second divisions in some countries but I certainly would never get as far down the pyramid as the National League etc. I will also take selections from the MLS, Brazil (serie A), Chile Primera and Japan J league. I dont play with much of Eastern Europe and recently dropped Bundesliga 2 and the K league in South Korea as the results weren't encouraging enough to continue with although I still do monitor them.

My results so far are showing the most losses coming from England (39 selections with 9 losses) but they are also showing the most selections generated and a small profit of 3.55 points to level stakes (10.65% ROI). I'm not inferring this means anything as obviously its a ridiculously small sample but worth sharing and monitoring to see if my results revert to the mean of your analysis.

This idea was one of several I was messing around with for a few months before I shared it with the group, it started to show some decent results and I wanted people with different analytical skill sets to help me either prove or disprove the concept. As the OP says the theory goes that well matched teams seem to produce a result more often than the market expects and thus creates some value for us to exploit. As such Im quite happy when the ratings show good attack and good defence as well as when one attack is stronger than the others defense and vice versa. The exact connotations of that are not clear to me either yet. But to be honest that's kinda of the point of this trial/test etc - we're trying to work out why it works or indeed if it will work longer term. You may end up being correct and we just hit a purple patch, if so that's ok, we can tweak the formula based on better data and knowledge gained from the original idea.

Its interesting to note that @Richard-Latimer has already spotted some tweaks and has improved upon my results by raising the goal expectancy to 2.6 and not including teams who are separated in the table by less than a couple of places.

Between my original testing and the selections shared with the group so far there is over 500 games derived from the idea and the strike rate remains very high at circa 78%. This equates to lay odds of 4.7ish whereas our current average lay price is 3.7. I hope that can continue! But realistically im sure some variance will come in at some point - I actually think there could be seasonality to it somehow I just cant quite formulate a reasonable idea around that yet.

Anyway ill stop rambling on! please keep going with whatever analysis you are doing on this, if I can help in anyway then dont hesitate to ask. Ultimately It would be good to create a community based concept that we can all profit from!

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer yeah it’s kind of a shame it can’t be done 2-3 days at a time but it is what it is so we can work with it

I imagine the majority of them aren't that different.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer yeah it’s kind of a shame it can’t be done 2-3 days at a time but it is what it is so we can work with it

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer I checked with Adam and the ratings updates are done through the day. It’s not possible to pinpoint a time as it varies but running them at 7pm would likely be the same as 10am the next morning

Good to know, cheers. Sometimes I have had to do further in advance like when I went away last weekend. This doesn't appear to have negatively impacted things though so far.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer I checked with Adam and the ratings updates are done through the day. It’s not possible to pinpoint a time as it varies but running them at 7pm would likely be the same as 10am the next morning

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer Awesome Richard! great results! Can you do me a favor and talk me through your changes again? Sorry to ask, I must have holiday brain or something! - from what I can muster....you adjust the goal expectancy to 2.6 or greater and you don't play the selection if there separated in the league by only one place? Is there anything other than that?

Goal Expectancty 2.61 or greater
No teams separated by 1 or 2 places in the table

Yeah that's it.

A few more leagues than you but if there's no liquidity I'll scrap it. Also some leagues have really high draw odds. Recently scrapped Bolivia.

Current excluded leagues:

England National Leage North and South
Germany Regionalliga
Spain Segunda B
Italy Serie C
Venezuela
Estonia
Israel Leumit League
Finland Kakkonen
Poland 2
Bahrain
Bosnia
Croatia 2
El Salvador
Hungary
Bolivia
Brasil Serie C
Chile Primera B

One other thing and I really don't know how much difference this makes but I copy ratings over to my sheet the night before and get selections from that. Easier when busy the next day and don't miss the overnighters.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer Awesome Richard! great results! Can you do me a favor and talk me through your changes again? Sorry to ask, I must have holiday brain or something! - from what I can muster....you adjust the goal expectancy to 2.6 or greater and you don't play the selection if there separated in the league by only one place? Is there anything other than that?

Goal Expectancty 2.61 or greater
No teams separated by 1 or 2 places in the table

Yeah that's it.

A few more leagues than you but if there's no liquidity I'll scrap it. Also some leagues have really high draw odds. Recently scrapped Bolivia.

Current excluded leagues:

England National Leage North and South
Germany Regionalliga
Spain Segunda B
Italy Serie C
Venezuela
Estonia
Israel Leumit League
Finland Kakkonen
Poland 2
Bahrain
Bosnia
Croatia 2
El Salvador
Hungary
Bolivia
Brasil Serie C
Chile Primera B

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Awesome Richard! great results! Can you do me a favor and talk me through your changes again? Sorry to ask, I must have holiday brain or something! - from what I can muster....you adjust the goal expectancy to 2.6 or greater and you don't play the selection if there separated in the league by only one place? Is there anything other than that?

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Alright fellas? I'm back from holiday - Looks like there has been some good discussion in the thread whilst I've been away! Ill do my best to reply to some of the talking points later today. In the meantime I did some back testing on the system for the games during the period i've been away and here are the latest results.

214 selections
169 winners - set and forget
205 winners - traded
Strike rate 78.97% - set and forget
Strike rate 97.66% - traded
43.5 points profit to level stakes
Yield 7%
ROI 130%

There were 60 selections whilst I was away (using my criteria for leagues) of which 49 were winners and 11 were losers as set and forget. Only one 0-0 though! amazing!

To compare and conntrast:

I have 88 selections as of last night (Not including first from today yet as 2 more to come) with the following results:

77 winners - set and forget
Not a single 0-0 as yet (I won't say these were all winners traded as sometime draw odds would have gone down.
Only 8x 1-1 (90.91%) scorelines meaning the opportunity would have been there to trade out much later in most games thereby securing a greater percentage of profit on risk
Strike rate on simple set and forget 87.50%
51.45pts profit to my own adjusted version of maria staking plan
Yield 15.69%

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

thanks James, Denis, I love this system, I don't fully understand why it works it either, it doesn't make any sense logically, I mean both teams should cancel each other out shouldn't they? The results speak for themselves though, I'd encourage you to give it a bash, Ive been doing well since following :-).

Halmstad and Gais for Tuesday

Another win

Anybody else who took this suddenly find it back on their list of matched bets but suspended? Totally weird even for betfair

And now it's settled again ffs haha

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

thanks James, Denis, I love this system, I don't fully understand why it works it either, it doesn't make any sense logically, I mean both teams should cancel each other out shouldn't they? The results speak for themselves though, I'd encourage you to give it a bash, Ive been doing well since following :-).

Halmstad and Gais for Tuesday

Another win

Anybody else who took this suddenly find it back on their list of matched bets but suspended? Totally weird even for betfair

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer There's no need to on my account buddy, everyone is welcome to collaborate on this together.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs

Now you're back I'll take my own variant of these selections and post in my thread if you like. Stop cluttering yours up.

[A Former User]

Just one selection from me today:

Sweden Superettan Orgryte v Varbergs