"The Good Day" LTD system

[A Former User]

Alright fellas? I'm back from holiday - Looks like there has been some good discussion in the thread whilst I've been away! Ill do my best to reply to some of the talking points later today. In the meantime I did some back testing on the system for the games during the period i've been away and here are the latest results.

214 selections
169 winners - set and forget
205 winners - traded
Strike rate 78.97% - set and forget
Strike rate 97.66% - traded
43.5 points profit to level stakes
Yield 7%
ROI 130%

There were 60 selections whilst I was away (using my criteria for leagues) of which 49 were winners and 11 were losers as set and forget. Only one 0-0 though! amazing!

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman hi Lee, thanks for the suggestion but that's what I've already been trying. It works in a majority of cases but still leaves hundreds that need altering manually, for example when a team's name has been abbreviated or spelled differently.

As an extreme example, there is a Romanian team that is listed as Juventus Bucuresti in one place and Daco-Getica Bucuresti in another so the method above would not work in this case.

[A Former User]

@james-h If you used date as a 6 digit number in column 1, then first few letters of the team 1's name in column 2 and then first few digits of team 2's name in column 3 then link the 3 columns together using the CONCATENATE function then it should create a unique reference for that game. Do the same on the second sheet and then use the VLOOKUP to pull the info together

You may need to use another (or different) information (country, league etc) but the idea is to get a unique reference which can be done the same on both sheets

[A Former User]

@denis-caunce looking forward to seeing this Denis.

I have tried to do something similar myself with results on one sheet and ratings on another, and tried using the VLOOKUP function to match them up. Problem for me was that many teams are named differently in many cases so would have to alter them manually. Interested to see how you have got around this.

[Richard Latimer]

3 for me today:

Metaloglobus v Luceafarul Oradea (09:00am)
F Constanta v Juventus Bucuresti
AArau v Kriens

[Richard Latimer]

@denis-caunce said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts I'm really pleased that everyone is doing well with the system. It does look as though it is paying dividends however I am concerned since my back testing still suggests that it would have lost over the last 2 seasons in the top Euro leagues. It may very well be that I am doing something wrong of course but my analysis suggests that we should be betting the draw on these games rather than laying it. In fact I am thinking there is a small variation on this system which does give a nice ROI.

I'm just putting together a database of all the results and will post up all the matches for others to look at and comment. It would be good to get a 2nd pair of eyes to either confirm my thinking or show me where it is going wrong. Will probably have it sorted over the weekend.

Which leagues are you collating for then?

Be sure to analyse the difference in results for position differential in the table as well as for goal expectancy 2.61 or over.

[A Former User]

@ben-watts I'm really pleased that everyone is doing well with the system. It does look as though it is paying dividends however I am concerned since my back testing still suggests that it would have lost over the last 2 seasons in the top Euro leagues. It may very well be that I am doing something wrong of course but my analysis suggests that we should be betting the draw on these games rather than laying it. In fact I am thinking there is a small variation on this system which does give a nice ROI.

I'm just putting together a database of all the results and will post up all the matches for others to look at and comment. It would be good to get a 2nd pair of eyes to either confirm my thinking or show me where it is going wrong. Will probably have it sorted over the weekend.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

thanks James, Denis, I love this system, I don't fully understand why it works it either, it doesn't make any sense logically, I mean both teams should cancel each other out shouldn't they? The results speak for themselves though, I'd encourage you to give it a bash, Ive been doing well since following :-).

Halmstad and Gais for Tuesday

Another win

[Richard Latimer]

Only around 80

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer ah that's interesting. I'm tracking too but only have around 50 data points at the moment so I haven't noticed that pattern yet. How many games have you managed to track so far?

[Richard Latimer]

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

I have these for today:

I'll probably avoid the Championship play-off game - @Richard-Latimer any reason you're avoiding the other two? They should be included as far as I can tell.

Both too close in the table. I avoid anything with only 1or 2 positions between them. Results I've tracked of these have been ultra poor.

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman yeah that's my thinking, I'd want there to be an incentive for both teams to win but, as you say, Villa don't need to.

[A Former User]

@james-h I’ve got the same as you. I may avoid that game too, Villa are 2-1 up from the first leg so they’d be happy with a draw and may just sit back and defend if they’re drawing

[A Former User]

I have these for today:

I'll probably avoid the Championship play-off game - @Richard-Latimer any reason you're avoiding the other two? They should be included as far as I can tell.

[Richard Latimer]

@ben-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

thanks James, Denis, I love this system, I don't fully understand why it works it either, it doesn't make any sense logically, I mean both teams should cancel each other out shouldn't they? The results speak for themselves though, I'd encourage you to give it a bash, Ive been doing well since following :-).

Halmstad and Gais for Tuesday

[A Former User]

@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

thanks James, Denis, I love this system, I don't fully understand why it works it either, it doesn't make any sense logically, I mean both teams should cancel each other out shouldn't they? The results speak for themselves though, I'd encourage you to give it a bash, Ive been doing well since following :-).

[A Former User]

@ben-watts yeah it is for me

[A Former User]

Hi lads ii the nordsjaelland game coming through on this for you??

[Ryan]

Some good points here, you are right the mainstream easy things have been done to death and value is gone - which is why the straight forward under 2.0 fav and under 4.2 draw lay price doesn't work anymore as its done to death.

Here we take a different tact on it that nobody will be looking at, which throws up selections which are different to the norm.

[A Former User]

Hi @Denis-Caunce, building on the point @Martin-Futter makes I think an important thing to consider is that all the strategies that are highly logical will have been flogged to death and the markets have adjusted over the years to eliminate any value they may once have given so a strategy that works needs to be slightly illogical

Having said this, I have been mulling over the same question as you with regards to why this works and I think possibly you are focusing on the outcome of the attack/ defence comparison in isolation rather than the outcome of all of the filters combined. So like you say, the comparison of attack vs defence could throw up games where a really poor attack is coming up against a really good defence however in these games the goal expectancy will be low so these games get removed when this criterial is also applied.

What should be left at the end is a selection of games where the home and away team are both evenly matched and goals are expected. I suspect this works because when 2 teams are evenly matched the market puts additional bias on the draw and there is therefore value in laying the draw, in particular in games where goals are expected.

Caveat - I'm pretty new to all this so if all this is nonsense then just put me in my place and I'll keep quiet!