2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@bence-korbuly Its been pretty good for me the last few years.
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Looks another tricky-ish day in Madrid. I like the price on Fucsovics Vs Goffin, but I’m going to be patient on this one. I have in my notes that Goffin isn’t a good front runner, so I’m going to look to back Fucsovics at a very healthy price if he goes down a break prior to 4-4 or if he goes a set down.
I also think Millman looks a bit short vs Johnson. Neither in great form, so will wait and see if Johnson serve is firing and if he’s holding comfortably I’ll look to get involved.Nothing on the wta for me today.
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@ryan-carruthers
Thank you. How succesfull is that?
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@bence-korbuly Ok, so if the score is 3-3 / 4-4 in the first set we look to lay the fav or back the underdog in this situation. This is because the set has got tight, very tight and a lot of the times we see the underdog really pushing the fav in the first set.
We monitor the trade the whole time and trade out at the end of the first set.
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@Ryan-Carruthers How your filter works? LAy 3-3/4-4?
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Dipping into the wta again, I think Sloane Stephens looks a cracking price today Vs Azarenka. She doesn’t have the best Madrid record, but her stats on clay heavily outweigh Azarenka, they played 3 times last year and Stephens won them all, and she had a great run at Rolland Garros last year so clearly has the game to go well on this surface.
Nothing on my bad servers today, and not liking much in the ATP.Greening up on Stephens end of S1
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Dipping into the wta again, I think Sloane Stephens looks a cracking price today Vs Azarenka. She doesn’t have the best Madrid record, but her stats on clay heavily outweigh Azarenka, they played 3 times last year and Stephens won them all, and she had a great run at Rolland Garros last year so clearly has the game to go well on this surface.
Nothing on my bad servers today, and not liking much in the ATP. -
@sean-fitzgerald Plays a huge part court speed, places like Rome where the clay is totally different to others.
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@sean-fitzgerald I might have a sheet with them kicking about on - looking now.
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@sean-fitzgerald hi Sean, I use Dan Weston’s sheets for this information, but I’m sure a quick google and you’d be able to get the info
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Double up and staying alive:
Arruaberena OR Sorribes Tormo (they’re playing each other and both poor servers)1st winner
Schmidelova
Gasparyan
TsurenkoThese went well today. Staying alive triggered twice and both won. I haven’t been trading these in S3 but may change this, will have to monitor how the odds move.
Schmidelova won S1 so this triggered too. Managed to removed some liability when she was a break down, and then greened up when she was 4-1 down in the TB. Good decision as she actually came back to win the set and match. The other 2 didn’t trigger.
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald no Q is a silly one matey, fire them away
So Projected hold is made up 'Projected Hold: The player's expected service hold %, based on their historical hold %, the other player's break % and adjusted for the current court speed'
It takes into account not just the players hold but can be influenced by the other player and the court speed - hence why sometimes it can see high.
Thanks Ryan. That makes sense and similar to what I expected (although I never thought about court speed).
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@simon
Hey mate love this and thanks for sharing.
Quick question - where do you find tour averages for PJH?
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Having been trialing some methods on the wta and although a v small sample size, I think they have legs so will share with you guys and see if you have any input too. Both are based around laying poor servers.
First strategy is to lay a poor server when a double break up, or when serving to stay in the set. The theory being that to get a double break up she will have held really well so far and that can only last so long, and the risk reward with this trade will be great as the market won’t move too much more against us if she goes on to win the set, but a comeback would result in a big swing. With the serving to stay in the set, this theory is based upon a weak serve not holding up under pressure. Again risk reward should be well in our favour.
Final one I’ve been trialing is to lay a poor server when a set up against an average to good server. Then I let the trade run and green up or take the loss at the end of set 2.
For a poor server I’m looking for players who’s PJH are well under the tour average on that surface (so 62.9% for clay).Selections for today. I’ve named the strategies double up, staying alive, and 1st winner for ease.
Double up and staying alive:
Arruaberena OR Sorribes Tormo (they’re playing each other and both poor servers)1st winner
Schmidelova
Gasparyan
Tsurenko -
@sean-fitzgerald no Q is a silly one matey, fire them away
So Projected hold is made up 'Projected Hold: The player's expected service hold %, based on their historical hold %, the other player's break % and adjusted for the current court speed'
It takes into account not just the players hold but can be influenced by the other player and the court speed - hence why sometimes it can see high.
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Apologies if this is a silly question. Is the Projected Hold stat represented as a percentage?
Also is there a benchmark in terms of strong rating? From what I can see mid 70’s looks high.
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@dave-jessop haha spot on! They are glorified challengers basically.
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@dave-jessop there are 4 types of events on the ATP tour, 250, 500, 1000 masters and then the slams.
250’s are the least lucrative, less prize money and ranking points available. These scale up as you go up. So 250’s are the lowest standard ATP events.
There is similar in WTA with premiers and internationals etc although I don’t know what the hierarchy is there tbh. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
3 lays today to end the week.
Munich:
KohlschreiberEstoril:
Goffin
CuevasAll 3 lost today which means just under 0.5pt loss for the week. Disappointing end to the week. Next 250 not until the 19th
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3 lays today to end the week.
Munich:
KohlschreiberEstoril:
Goffin
Cuevas
