"The Good Day" LTD system
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@richard-latimer When I ran the ratings the goal expectancy was as per below:
England Championship Sheffield Wed v Bristol City 11 7 1493 1507 -14 0.651 -0.607 0.703 -0.567 2.6 -19 9
Norway Eliteserien Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 08 3.6 7 1547 1573 -26 0.601 -0.429 0.747 -0.585 2.55 14 14 -
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Todays Selections:
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Cambuur v Den Bosch
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Jong PSV v Sparta Rotterdam
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Nijmegen v Waalwijk
Sweden Allsvenskan Goteborg v Helsingborg
England Championship Sheffield Wed v Bristol City
Norway Eliteserien Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 08
England Championship Brentford v Leeds
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg v Eintracht FrankfurtBeen trying to understand how you had Wednesday and Bodo/Glimt. According to what I have in front of me and going on your rules for a starting point these didn't hit the required goal expectancy?
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Todays Selections:
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Cambuur v Den Bosch
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Jong PSV v Sparta Rotterdam
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Nijmegen v Waalwijk
Sweden Allsvenskan Goteborg v Helsingborg
England Championship Sheffield Wed v Bristol City
Norway Eliteserien Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 08
England Championship Brentford v Leeds
Germany Bundesliga Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt -
Still ticking along nicely these - latest results:
112 selections
89 winners (set and forget)
106 winners (traded)
Strike rate 80% (set and forget)
Strike rate 95% (traded)
Yield 8%
25 points profit to level stakes
Return on capital 57.14% -
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Todays Selections:
England Championship Birmingham v Derby
England Championship West Brom v Hull City
England League One Burton v Portsmouth
Sweden Superettan GAIS v Brage
Denmark Superliga Odense v Nordsjaelland
England League One Sunderland v Doncaster
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Jong Ajax v Twente
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles v Heerenveen
Belgium Jupiler League St. Liege v Genk9 selections today, one got postponed by there was 6 outright winners from the other 8 if you play set and forget or 8 winners if you traded. Not too shabby! Will update the sheet next week.
Touching on what I said before about improving s/r by removing in the goal expectancy of 2.5's this would have taken away Brum making things even better.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Todays Selections:
England Championship Birmingham v Derby
England Championship West Brom v Hull City
England League One Burton v Portsmouth
Sweden Superettan GAIS v Brage
Denmark Superliga Odense v Nordsjaelland
England League One Sunderland v Doncaster
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Jong Ajax v Twente
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles v Heerenveen
Belgium Jupiler League St. Liege v Genk9 selections today, one got postponed by there was 6 outright winners from the other 8 if you play set and forget or 8 winners if you traded. Not too shabby! Will update the sheet next week.
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Todays Selections:
England Championship Birmingham v Derby
England Championship West Brom v Hull City
England League One Burton v Portsmouth
Sweden Superettan GAIS v Brage
Denmark Superliga Odense v Nordsjaelland
England League One Sunderland v Doncaster
Netherlands Eerste Divisie Jong Ajax v Twente
Netherlands Eredivisie Heracles v Heerenveen
Belgium Jupiler League St. Liege v Genk -
@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer Richard, interesting - the overarching theory behind this though is the opposite! im working on the basis that two closely matched teams usually produce a result. It sounds like there could be some significant variation by league. I'm a little blind to that as I dont play all leagues. Would be interesting if you wanted to start recording the leagues that I dont and then we could compare and contrast?
I've started recording all results on a spreadsheet, just not profit/loss or anything for time being. I think you could potentially have two very closely matched teams but occupying different areas of the table. My wondering is on motivation. When those closely matched teams occupy the same space neither wants to cede that space to the other and so both play not to lose. When one is higher than the other perhaps acertain amount of complacency presents itsle fat one end and extra motivation at the other. Perhaps the team riding high wants to keep that momentum where as the team currently struggling can't quite lift themselves for a game in which they should have every chance on paper.
I guess what your describing above is the main reason I dont play all the leagues in the first place. I stick to where I have the most knowledge and maybe that helps to minimize the potential downside on this a bit. I also dont play every selection generated. I think of it as a starting point.
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Hopefully you can see past the typos haha
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer Richard, interesting - the overarching theory behind this though is the opposite! im working on the basis that two closely matched teams usually produce a result. It sounds like there could be some significant variation by league. I'm a little blind to that as I dont play all leagues. Would be interesting if you wanted to start recording the leagues that I dont and then we could compare and contrast?
I've started recording all results on a spreadsheet, just not profit/loss or anything for time being. I think you could potentially have two very closely matched teams but occupying different areas of the table. My wondering is on motivation. When those closely matched teams occupy the same space neither wants to cede that space to the other and so both play not to lose. When one is higher than the other perhaps acertain amount of complacency presents itsle fat one end and extra motivation at the other. Perhaps the team riding high wants to keep that momentum where as the team currently struggling can't quite lift themselves for a game in which they should have every chance on paper.
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Hi Chris is this LTD at HT or KO. How do you suggest trading this. Is it similar to Keith's LTD trades
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One selection for today:
Denmark Superliga FC Copenhagen v Midtjylland -
@richard-latimer Richard, interesting - the overarching theory behind this though is the opposite! im working on the basis that two closely matched teams usually produce a result. It sounds like there could be some significant variation by league. I'm a little blind to that as I dont play all leagues. Would be interesting if you wanted to start recording the leagues that I dont and then we could compare and contrast?
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@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
In case anyone is interested, yesterday I pulled up Altrincham using these rules. Position in the table was 2 apart. Score was 1-2.
Today was FAR Rabat in Morocco. Separated by 1 position in the table and it ended 1-1.
What I might do is go one step further and look to see how many points separate each team.
And then again overnight in Paraguay. Another 1-1 result where teams separated by one position in the table.
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In case anyone is interested, yesterday I pulled up Altrincham using these rules. Position in the table was 2 apart. Score was 1-2.
Today was FAR Rabat in Morocco. Separated by 1 position in the table and it ended 1-1.
What I might do is go one step further and look to see how many points separate each team.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
No selections today.
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@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
On your small dataset I improved s/r to 87% by trading out only after 3 goals. If a 2nd went in then invariably so did a 3rd. A kind of balance between trading out for minimal gains regardless and letting everything run to the end.
Should have said, not just when a 2nd follows so does a 3rd. More when a 2nd goes in to equal scores more often than not a 3rd goes in after.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer yeah I ignore a lot of leagues, particularly 2nd and 3rd division stuff. I just don’t want to trade them, I’m not excited by putting the time into learn about them and I wouldn’t put my money in blind.
This isn’t my usual trading style, ordinarily I’m an active discretionary type trader, I’ll use research to get an understanding of what I think will happen but when I’m watching I’ll take lots of different positions and move profits/losses around.
This was a side project alongside a few other ideas I had with a view to having some automation. I have been toying with the idea of just recording all leagues though.
Out of interest how did the leagues you mentioned get on?
Mexico good, the others not so but I noticed that not only were the teams close on ratings they were also separated by only 1 position in the table. Keen to see how this affects as you can easily see how a tight game would ensue when both teams scared to lose more than wanting the win.
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@richard-latimer yeah I ignore a lot of leagues, particularly 2nd and 3rd division stuff. I just don’t want to trade them, I’m not excited by putting the time into learn about them and I wouldn’t put my money in blind.
This isn’t my usual trading style, ordinarily I’m an active discretionary type trader, I’ll use research to get an understanding of what I think will happen but when I’m watching I’ll take lots of different positions and move profits/losses around.
This was a side project alongside a few other ideas I had with a view to having some automation. I have been toying with the idea of just recording all leagues though.
Out of interest how did the leagues you mentioned get on?
