2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays:
Marrakech:
Paire
Londero (if he become fav, currently hovering around evens)Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonAnother good day on the lays yesterday. 2 wins and 3 got to 4-4 with no brake of serve. I only managed to trade 2 of them to the time difference but happy with the results.
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@col with this strat I get in at the off and exit as soon as a brake goes with me or against me, or exit at 4-4 if no brakes of serve. Been running it since June last year on 250’s and it’s showing a 4.7% return, this improves if you remove indoor hard tournament which are in the red.
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@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays:
Marrakech:
Paire
Londero (if he become fav, currently hovering around evens)Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonKeen to oppose Thompson and Norrie here too @Simon
Giraldo does the job for us.
Strong fight back from Thompson though. He was down a break 1-2 and Giraldo had 40-15 on his serve. Has just nicked the 2nd set tie-breaker. Fair effort from the Aussie! :australia: -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays
Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonHouston a bloody gold mine this week. Norrie a winner.
Galan (Johnson) :flexed_biceps_medium_skin_tone:
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays
Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonHouston a bloody gold mine this week. Norrie a winner.
Do you not wait for 1-1 before you enter Simon?
Hideous time for me so I didn't get a chance to participate. Well done if you got involved!
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays
Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonHouston a bloody gold mine this week. Norrie a winner.
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@col good to hear
I don't dig any further beyond the 3 key stats when using my lay strategy. I tried to narrow them down a while back, but found I missed surprising winners, and strong fancies would lose, so it ended up evening itself out. But yeah, today the ones i like the look of the most are also those 2. I think Querrey's from is hot and cold, so hoping for a cold day, likewise Paire, who knows which Benoit will turn up. The one I like the least is Johnson, but just need an early brake then i'm out of there. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays:
Marrakech:
Paire
Londero (if he become fav, currently hovering around evens)Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
JohnsonKeen to oppose Thompson and Norrie here too @Simon
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@frode-lia I will use 2 pts lib on every back. And take stop loss if they loose the game.
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I will back these players when 0-30 or 15-40 in first set. I will green up when they get to 30-30 or 40-40:
Juan Ignacio Londero
Pierre-Hugues Herbert -
@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
WTA Lugano
2pm
Vogele (BF 1.89) v Golubic (BF 2.08)
I have run this game through my price forcasting and it brings this priced up as Betfair has, which usually for me is a sign to look for some value but I actually think my model has it wrong today.... (famous last words hey?....)
I will tell you for why, Golubic is a player that Tennis Insight has with the better handle and surface rating, her first serve stats are strong as well and when you compare to her opponent she holds her own serve well which as the underdog in this game appeals to me especially when I bring into force that my knowledge of this player is that she has a history of starting fast, so I know she can start a game fast, she can hold her serve but what I also know is she is a good returner of serve and Vogele is on my blacklist - she's not a bad returner of serve (Vogele) but for me her serve isn't a massive weapon and she's more of a counter puncher, which also makes me lean towards Golubic because of her attacking, clever & fast starting nature this trade fits into my remit.
Those who watch me trade know I am all about the first set so I am looking for a mismatch in many things to take advantage of in the first set, this is an opportunity for me here.
How will I play it?
Nice and simple, Let them both serve if they both hold then I will back Golubic, I will trade out deep in the first set or at the end of the first set if Golubic wins the first set IF it doesn't go to plan and Vogele turns up then I will trade out as soon as I feel Golubic isn't asserting herself on this game and if Vogele wins the first set I will then lay Vogele at the end of the first set
All that research and another break early on, @col we spoke the other week about the waiting game and for them both - my last 2 trades posted here didn't even get in because of the break of serve early doors but its left me in a strong no loss position.
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Todays Lays:
Marrakech:
Paire
Londero (if he become fav, currently hovering around evens)Houston:
Querry
Norrie
Thompson
Johnson -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Marrakech yesterday was 1 loss and 1 small green out at 4-4. Houston was 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 small green out at 4-4.
Will continue on with Marrakech even though results have been poor so far. Houston performing excellently
Today’s
Marrakech:
Simon
EdmundHouston:
Garin1 win 1 loss and 1 small red at 4-4. Houston with the winner again, it’s over 5 points up alone this week. Shame about Marrakech.
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@simon I love the WTA its a bloody goldmine for the 1st set winner lay, sometimes makes these kind of longer trades a bit more up and down.
It's just notes on players matey
I tend to watch a lot of tennis and write notes, I also look on tennis forums and tennis insight about what others have spotted - there's a lot of dross to be honest people who haven't got a clue but sometimes some good spots that goes in my notes -
@ryan-carruthers really interesting Ryan. I was looking at this game too (starting to dip my toe into the WTA) and had it priced as the value on Vogele too, but I don't have any insight beyond the stats to discount this like you do. I also thought it looked good for a lay of the first set winner, so think i'll wait to see how set 1 pans out before getting involved.
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WTA Lugano
2pm
Vogele (BF 1.89) v Golubic (BF 2.08)
I have run this game through my price forcasting and it brings this priced up as Betfair has, which usually for me is a sign to look for some value but I actually think my model has it wrong today.... (famous last words hey?....)
I will tell you for why, Golubic is a player that Tennis Insight has with the better handle and surface rating, her first serve stats are strong as well and when you compare to her opponent she holds her own serve well which as the underdog in this game appeals to me especially when I bring into force that my knowledge of this player is that she has a history of starting fast, so I know she can start a game fast, she can hold her serve but what I also know is she is a good returner of serve and Vogele is on my blacklist - she's not a bad returner of serve (Vogele) but for me her serve isn't a massive weapon and she's more of a counter puncher, which also makes me lean towards Golubic because of her attacking, clever & fast starting nature this trade fits into my remit.
Those who watch me trade know I am all about the first set so I am looking for a mismatch in many things to take advantage of in the first set, this is an opportunity for me here.
How will I play it?
Nice and simple, Let them both serve if they both hold then I will back Golubic, I will trade out deep in the first set or at the end of the first set if Golubic wins the first set IF it doesn't go to plan and Vogele turns up then I will trade out as soon as I feel Golubic isn't asserting herself on this game and if Vogele wins the first set I will then lay Vogele at the end of the first set
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@simon I think these be the matches that will turn it
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Marrakech yesterday was 1 loss and 1 small green out at 4-4. Houston was 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 small green out at 4-4.
Will continue on with Marrakech even though results have been poor so far. Houston performing excellently
Today’s
Marrakech:
Simon
EdmundHouston:
Garin -
I’ve noticed with the 250 lays that almost every game I trade, there is an opportunity to take a decent green. There is the odd resounding defeat, but they are rare. Maybe waiting for the break of serve is too high variance and I can cut this down.
I’m going to run an experiment on them, looking for 33% profit initially and take loss after losing a break. This should increase strike rate, and could possibly be automated too, which would allow me to focus on value picks. I’ll update when/if I make any progress with this.
