Simons April Trades
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08/04/2019
Poor day today. Both 250 lays on tennis lost. Zverev had an opportunity early but couldn’t convert, Humbert was just totally outclassed by Edmund. Hopefully these will turn around as the week goes on. Edmund was 1.2, don’t need many of them to come in to be in profit, so have to keep this in mind mentally.
On the football lays, Nijmegen took the lead but I didn’t enter at this point as they were on top. They scored another to go 2 up. I waited into the second half and laid Nijmegen at 1.16 as Jong PSV were piling the pressure on. They managed to get 1 back but never got the second. Again this was a very short price lay and need to remind myself that there will be losing runs trading at these prices.
Final trade of the day was a second half goal in the Brondby match. Backed next overs at 1.6 which was a winner!Daily profit -2.4pts
April total -1.86 pts
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07/04/2019
Took the day off today apart from the 3 away lays I posted in the football thread, but all of those were no trades.
Will be busier tomorrow with the ATP tour back in swing
Daily profit 0pt
April total 0.54pt
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06/04/2019
One trade this morning before heading off, LTD in Sydney vs Melbourne at 2.68 1 pt lib. Lovely late goal from Sydney for full profit on the trade.
Now off out and a bit of cash on Vintage Clouds for the national from the punting bank
EDIT - also let Juventus trade run which was 0.84 pts profit. Vintage clouds fell at the first fence
Daily profit 1.44 pts
April Total 0.54pts
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@simon enjoy the time away matey!
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05/04/2019
2 trades today. Firstly I backed the over 1.5 market in Horsens Vs Aarhus (impossible not to sing Madness when reading that name) at 1.6 and a goal scored soon after, trade won. Second was a LTD on Roda Vs Waalwijk. 0-0 at HT and the draw odds looked caluenro me. Pre games and in play stats looked good for a goal but it just never came.
Daily profit -0.4 pts
April total -0.9 pts
Won’t be trading much this weekend. My wife and I have a babysitter most the weekend and so are away out for the day to Bonnie Dundee tomorrow, and will probably have a bit of a sore head on Sunday
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@simon I agree, sometimes you've got to take a loss get it down on paper - accept it, deal with it and the move on.
All the people at the top of their game do this, look at some of the best sports stars - concede a goal their fault, head stays up fires them on to get another.
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@ryan-carruthers 100% Also quite therapeutic to write down the losses. Feel like it gets the loss out the system and can move on from it which is nice.
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@simon agree, when you write things down they become more real dont they
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One thing that has become clear, and I did think it before but writing my trades down brings it in to focus, is how selective I am. Yesterday I had a large list of trades and only pulled the trigger on 3 of them. I think there’s a fine line between being selective and being too hesitant.
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04/04/2019
No trades for me today. Had a few lined up but my away lays were all no trades, and any second half goal trades never quite looked appealing enough in action or in odds for me to get involved.
Had fun using my punting back this afternoon at Aintree and found a few winners though
Daily profit 0 pt
April total -0.5 pt
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03/04/2019
Had a long list of potential trades today, but whittled it down to a few in play.
On my away lay strategy Rayo Valecano were the only team to take the lead. They have lost 20% of last 10 away games, and Eibar have only lost at home 10%.
I waited into the second until Eibar started having more possession and a shot on goal, and entered the trade at 1.87 for 1 pt lib. Eibar then scored 5 minutes later as the pressure continued and I greend up. Trade went exactly to plan.Using Keith’s filter again I had a lot of potential LTD/LCS. Only entered 1 trade though. Roma Vs Fiorentina was very lively in H1 and the draw available to lay at 2.68 which seemed crazy value. So I LTD for 2 pt lib, and greened up when Fiorentina scored. A Roma goal would have been a lot better, but still profit.
Final trade of the night was an over 1.5 in Breda Vs Excelsior. I backed O1.5 at 1.5 for 1/2 pt on about the 29th minute and a goal was scored immediately. Very satisfying.
Today’s profit 1.1 pt
April total -0.5 pt -
02/04/2019
Busier tonight. My main trade was on Bury Vs Cambridge. Pre game stats were good, Bury have won 90% of last 20 home games, Cambridge have lost 20% away. Cambridge took an early lead and the in play stats supported a Bury comeback so laid Cambridge at 2.5 for 1pt lib. Cambridge then nicked another, but Bury we’re still on top so I went in for another 1pt lib at 1.39. This is the scenario where you can win big, or suffer a 2 pt loss. Unfortunately although having way more possession, Bury seemed to fizzle out as the second half went on, and eventually conceded a 3rd. 2pt loss. Was happy with pre game stats and in play stats, just one of those trades.
Second half goals
Again using Keith’s filter I identified some games of interest. 2 in the Estonian league, both 0-0 at HT but with loads of action and good odds, so I LTD at 2.5 on both of these and both won. Because it’s only 4 games into their season, I only went 0.5 pt lib so the retuns were relatively small.
I also backed the next over in Wolves vs Man Utd games at 1.6 for 2 pt lib and there was a red card immediately (market suspended I thought it was a goal), so I scratched the trade. Wolves went on to score so slightly frustrating.-1.6 pts
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@simon This is a good idea matey, I will look forward to reading these
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01/04/2019
No trades for me. Jong Utrecht look the lead vs Roda in a game I’d highlighted that i’d lay them if they did so and in play stats supported a Roda comeback. I like to see more possession and more shots on goal for Roda than Utrecht for me to get involved. Roda equalized fairly quickly so the stats never got a chance to add up for me unfortunately.
The pre game stats were Utrecht had won 0% of away games in the last 10, and Roda had lost 10% of home games, so 95% probablilty that Utrecht weren’t going to go on and win. They were available to lay at 3.7 before Roda equalized. This is where I struggle a bit sometimes, to read the game in probabilities. A 5% chance of Utrecht winning means they should have been 20 to win, so 3.7 lay is massive value?
I also had a couple of LTD/LCS highlighted using Keith’s filter which is always a go to for me, but the odds were too poor for me to get involved.
Day 1 0 Points
