BTC Results Sheet
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Morning guys
Something new and different for you... we've put together a football results sheet. Please watch this video which explains it fully:
https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqnhQJ35IP
We're now looking for suggestions on what to do with this next and how to make it really useful to you guys in terms of tracking your individual trades etc.
Please fire away with some suggestions! Probably the best way to tackle this is to let it run as it is for a week and then review the suggestions people have made to figure out what's practical to add in. So if I don't reply straight away then don't be disheartened, your suggestion will definitely have been noted.
Finally, the link to the sheet itself!
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@ryan-carruthers no problem Ryan you may see a trading angle that I don't from them or spot something that I have missed
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@gary-brown Good lad thank you, that be great I'd have a little look through them and see what pops up
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@ryan-carruthers Hi Ryan I still looking at data and I found some leagues are better than others so far for the theory.
Germany top league and Englis Prem look good so far and Dutch League.
France league is not so greatThe trading out if 0-0 at HT you can return over 50% of your stake back if 0-0 and it reduces the amount of full loses to more than cover this.
When I finish I will send you some spreadsheets how I have monitored the matches. Just been looking at this seasons matches so far but slowly going through the leagues using football data website which is free one. But it doesn't have some of the leagues I want to look at such as the Aussie league which is good for goals.
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@gary-brown Also if the game was 0-0 at HT what was the strike rate of over 1.5 goals?
I am thinking if these games were poor - I wonder if you could actually back under 1.5 goals for a period.
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@gary-brown That is very interesting, was there anything on the starting price in the odds on dogs/draw that correlated to the 0-0 at HT on the losing trades to be able to rule them out more?
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Hi Andy I was wondering if you could look into something for me or maybe create a spreadsheet that I could analyse if possible. I have 2 things what stood out for me from some data my friend sent me when I looked at it. The data was football matches this month (Dec) and included over 380 matches.
two things stood out.
- It was over 1.5 goals in matches where the home favourite is odds on 1.80 or below that I was looking at.
If no goal at half time I think I have found its best to trade out as the strike rate was significantly higher by removing matches where it was 0-0 at half time.
Idea 2
Also I was looking at second half goals from home favs under 1.80. I found that the matches that weren't drawing at half time had a lot bigger chance of a second half goal than the matches that were drawing. Again I was wondering if their is something you could do to go back further than the data I got from a friend that I have looked at. -
Is there any reason why there isnt data for the Superrettan? Also can we have The J League added, and the CSL if they are asking what we want... Have you heard back off the API provider?
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@adam-williams said in BTC Results Sheet:
@ben-price No it's a different API, I've just dropped them a support message to see why they're not in there as they should be as far as I can tell.
any update on this? Would be great to get the extra leagues as it's missing a few that have significant liquidity.
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@ben-price No it's a different API, I've just dropped them a support message to see why they're not in there as they should be as far as I can tell.
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@adam-williams Also got no MLS, are you getting the data from the same place as the ratings?
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@ben-price We don't really filter out any leagues (other than ones that come through with virtually no stats attached). Seems crazy if those leagues aren't in there though, I will look into it!
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Hi Adam,
Is there a way we can request leagues to be added into here for the new season? Such as LaLiga 2, Italian Serie B, Chinese Super League.
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@james-h Thanks James, this is now fixed.
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I believe there is a mistake in the way the spreadsheet calculates Over/Under 1.5 profits.
As an example, the row 8712 is the Tondela v Feirense game which finished 1-1. Yet the P/L column shows you would make a profit of £3.68 backing Under 1.5 Goals, which obviously can't be true.
I haven't checked the other Over/Unders columns so not sure if the mistake goes across all the columns but just thought you should know.
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@adam-williams even if we use the sports book prices it will give a rough guide. Nothing better than collecting live data, then you can add the exchange price. Surely this is only for back testing anyhow, couple of ticks isn’t an issue
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee, that's useful info. Nothing's ever easy
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@adam-williams said in BTC Results Sheet:
QUESTION: Does anyone have an idea whether the BF exchange odds are generally a standard number of ticks above the bookie odds? If so, I can adjust the back odds accordingly and then just add another tick for a fair idea of the lay prices.
It varies hugely. Depends on the odds, the bookie, whether they have an offer on, the league/game.....probably too many variants for an x + y% formula unfortunately. Sometimes its a perfect match, sometimes its 20-30%. The average overround would be about 10% (Bet 365 is about 8%) but like i said, a lot of factors to consider
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I've added Dangerous Attack % to the home and away stats and, following on from @Ben-Price 's excellent work, have added P/L to the sheet based on the match odds.
Still working on getting the O/U prices in there, will add them this week.
Two key things to bear in mind with the P/L are:
- The odds are the Betfair bookie odds, so we should probably add x ticks to them to get the exchange odds
- We only get the back odds, so at the moment the lay P/L is based on back odds, which obviously is incorrect
QUESTION: Does anyone have an idea whether the BF exchange odds are generally a standard number of ticks above the bookie odds? If so, I can adjust the back odds accordingly and then just add another tick for a fair idea of the lay prices.
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@adam-williams thanks for the update, is there a way to add goal expectancy in the stats software? If not will just have to manual input