2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@col Yes lol, that's always a worry.
Best thing about trading though isn't it, we don't need them to win
just do what we think they will. -
@ryan-carruthers Great. Thanks for sharing. A bit scary cheering a player who hasn't won a match since August last year but I will follow the strat and see how we go. Cheers
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@col Frode is the beast on WTA, he is away now though I think?
But this one does have a 3 points difference on the ratings on the stats software and fits Frode's WTA rules of which I have posted below.....
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
WTA Acapulco
Gavrilova v Buzarnescu
Two players struggling for form big time. Looks like there could be more breaks in this match than holds. Anyone have any strats for these types of WTA matches?
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@ryan-carruthers Yes, I was right there with you
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@col Was a fairly straight forward trade really wasn't it? Bouzkova was broken really early and then from there we had a pretty straight run till the end of the set, the 4-2 game was the one that really gave me confidence to wait it out a little bit longer as well (15-0, 30-0, 40-0).
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1 lay today:
Ymer
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Acapulco Open (Womens)
10pm Yaf Wang v Bouzkova
I love the match up of this one, Wang is a player with a bit of talent that has a massive serve and it comes through my match up and she has value, her current price of 1.7 is value for me where I have her priced up around 1.20.
I will let them both have a serve and then if they both hold I will back Wang.
Followed and have greened up. Cheers @Ryan-Carruthers
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@paul-barker wish he’d done this in set 1
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon the market has flipped and Marterer now 1.8 so laying him. Trust in the system haha!!
Second set turn around on the cards !! -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
1 lay today:
Garin
Cabralles Baena and Marterer have almost identical stats and is priced pick em at the moment, but if one of them steams in I will also lay them.
1 scratch 1 loss. Not a disaster, but slightly disappointing not taking the green on Garin as would have seen me in profit. -1.5 pts for the day.
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@simon the market has flipped and Marterer now 1.8 so laying him. Trust in the system haha!!
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
1 lay today:
Garin
Cabralles Baena and Marterer have almost identical stats and is priced pick em at the moment, but if one of them steams in I will also lay them.
Loss on Garin, although I got a lot of my liability out when Sousa had 2 break points, so ended up with a scratch trade. Probably should have taken the green available in hindsight.
RCB odds have come in to favourite, so i'll be laying him next.
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Acapulco Open (Womens)
10pm Yaf Wang v Bouzkova
I love the match up of this one, Wang is a player with a bit of talent that has a massive serve and it comes through my match up and she has value, her current price of 1.7 is value for me where I have her priced up around 1.20.
I will let them both have a serve and then if they both hold I will back Wang.
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I was looking at the Baena v Marterer one but I cannot get a read on the game, my sheet has him as the non value player and I know he isn't the strongest mentally, but his recent form and handle of the surface is better than Marterer's....
Hmmm think I will swerve it, checked the BTC stats as well they look too close for me to call - just verbalising my thoughts out loud.
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1 lay today:
Garin
Cabralles Baena and Marterer have almost identical stats and is priced pick em at the moment, but if one of them steams in I will also lay them.
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@simon Cannot wait!!
This is the part of the year where the tennis really gets into full flow for me.
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ATP 250.....on clay......starts tomorrow
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@simon @Frode-Lia
Watched this just because of you Frode, this kids god some talent!!!
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@frode-lia he’s on
