CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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@chris-watts always get out on a red card mate, that's my rule of thumb anyway esp when team leading has the extra man
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List – 01/02/19
Roda v Almere – really like the look of this game. Good potential for a first half goal, 71% of their last 7 matches combined have gone over 1.5 first half. Averaging 2 goals in H1 between them with average time of first goal at 26mins. Definitely one to keep an eye on with a view to build a position from 20 mins out. Would also expect Roda to score first, they do so 80% of the time at home with Almere conceding first when away 70%. If by some chance this game gets to halftime at 0-0 providing the match action supports it, I’ll be bold and take positions in over 1.5/over 2.5.
So just the three first half goals in the end! Sadly i didnt manage to back any of them! I did back Roda when they went 0-1 down and layed Almere when they scored the second. Was grateful to get out for +0.1 points profit following the penalty that made it 1-2 just before half time.
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@frode-lia haha, good opportunity to lay Almere though.
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@chris-watts Or not
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@frode-lia great point Frode! Thanks!
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@chris-watts The upside is bigger. The downside is half to FHG, that means you can eather double your stake with same risk. If you belive in Roda that is ?!
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@chris-watts Why not back them with a stop loss @ HT?
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Trading Plan/Watch List – 01/02/19
Roda v Almere – really like the look of this game. Good potential for a first half goal, 71% of their last 7 matches combined have gone over 1.5 first half. Averaging 2 goals in H1 between them with average time of first goal at 26mins. Definitely one to keep an eye on with a view to build a position from 20 mins out. Would also expect Roda to score first, they do so 80% of the time at home with Almere conceding first when away 70%. If by some chance this game gets to halftime at 0-0 providing the match action supports it, I’ll be bold and take positions in over 1.5/over 2.5.
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Nothing from me today.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Watchlist/Trading Plan – 30/01/19
Unders Scalping:
Nantes v St Etienne
Setubal v Sporting
Southampton v Crystal PalaceWill be looking to scalp under 2.5/3.5 during flat spots or after goals in these games.
Overs:
Will be looking to build a position in the market two goals out from the current scoreline at halftime in the Liverpool v Leicester match. I.E if its 0-0 then build a position in over 2.5 market. My usual approach is 0.25 – 0.5 points dripped in over 20 mins or so, green up if there’s a goal. Stop loss determined by match action (rough guide is when the overs market below the one your trading reaches your average entry price)
Three solid winners on the unders scalping with all three failing to go over 2.5. Scratch on the Liverpool game owing to a cheap lay at 1.57 covering liabilities in the overs markets...Liverpool were woeful!
+0.8 points in total. Better than a loss but not by much!
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@chris-watts That could be good matey, could be a good way of getting some good engagement on it too.
I am glad they are good matey, exciting times!
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@ryan-carruthers yeah their all good mate, thanks for asking.
The diary element of having your own thread is great, i frequently read back through my own posts - last Friday when Arsenal were playing Man U in the cup I read back through the horror trade id made in the same game a few months ago and altered my approach to trading that match purely on the back of remembering/seeing what had happened the previous time.
Would you guys prefer if I added my stuff to the main football thread too?
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Watchlist/Trading Plan – 30/01/19
Unders Scalping:
Nantes v St Etienne
Setubal v Sporting
Southampton v Crystal PalaceWill be looking to scalp under 2.5/3.5 during flat spots or after goals in these games.
Overs:
Will be looking to build a position in the market two goals out from the current scoreline at halftime in the Liverpool v Leicester match. I.E if its 0-0 then build a position in over 2.5 market. My usual approach is 0.25 – 0.5 points dripped in over 20 mins or so, green up if there’s a goal. Stop loss determined by match action (rough guide is when the overs market below the one your trading reaches your average entry price)
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@chris-watts Amazing news on the new child, hope all is well and happy healthy family?
It's good to use it as a diary - I've always thought of trying to create a diary of trades for members where they can have a diary to add their trades to like matched betting does.
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks Ryan - I'm trying to pick it back up again and start posting more. I was doing well and using it as a diary pre xmas but then we had our second child and I just havent had the time/energy to be so detailed and rigorous in my analysis and subsequent posting! Things are normalizing again now...at least a little bit so ill try to put more content out on my trading.
As always anyone reading please feel free to interact and ask questions, particularly interested to chat with anyone who may have opposing views on the games I select or alternative ways to use the basis of my trades in different ways.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
WatchList/Trading Plan 29/01/19
Halftime LTD:
Will be looking to LTD at halftime in the following games if the match action supports:
• Wolves v West Ham
• Arsenal v Cardiff
• Manchester City v BurnleyScalping Unders:
Will be looking to scalp the under 2.5/3.5 markets in flat spots or after goals in this game:
• Huddersfield v Everton
Another clean sweep +3.4 points.
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WatchList/Trading Plan 29/01/19
Halftime LTD:
Will be looking to LTD at halftime in the following games if the match action supports:
• Wolves v West Ham
• Arsenal v Cardiff
• Manchester City v BurnleyScalping Unders:
Will be looking to scalp the under 2.5/3.5 markets in flat spots or after goals in this game:
• Huddersfield v Everton
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List – 28/01/19
Unders Scalping:
Will be looking to scalp the Under 3.5 markets in the following games.
Maritimo v Rio Ave
Alaves v Rayo VallecanoBoth teams record low percentages on Over 3.5 and average goal times at 30 mins and greater. I will monitor the first 10mins or so and if the action is slow look to scalp 0.1-0.2 points. Stop loss if there’s a goal whilst I’m in the trade.
Over 1.5:
Will look to build a position in the over 1.5 market from 30 mins out on the following games:
Tondela v Aves – 85% combined over 1.5 against similar opposition, average goal time 30 mins.
Three easy winners in the end and a couple of points profit on a pretty slow/weak card of football for the night.
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Trading Plan/Watch List – 28/01/19
Unders Scalping:
Will be looking to scalp the Under 3.5 markets in the following games.
Maritimo v Rio Ave
Alaves v Rayo VallecanoBoth teams record low percentages on Over 3.5 and average goal times at 30 mins and greater. I will monitor the first 10mins or so and if the action is slow look to scalp 0.1-0.2 points. Stop loss if there’s a goal whilst I’m in the trade.
Over 1.5:
Will look to build a position in the over 1.5 market from 30 mins out on the following games:
Tondela v Aves – 85% combined over 1.5 against similar opposition, average goal time 30 mins.
