Trading Goals

[A Former User]

What are your trading goals?

[Ryan]

I don't know but I know its been pretty profitable for a few years for those that have used it.

[A Former User]

Hi guys....

did anyone carry on with this strategy? if so how did it go r u still using it?

cheers

stuart

[A Former User]

@rupen-shah said in Trading Goals:

@michael-brady Hi Michael, no i havent, can i do this in play?

I don’t think the stats work inplay but I would suggest maybe setting the odds a tad below 3.5 - 4.8 to cover off the drift in odds that will happen after 20 mins play

[A Former User]

@michael-brady Hi Michael, no i havent, can i do this in play?

[A Former User]

@rupen-shah have you set up a filter which searches for o3.5 goals tho range between 3.5-4.8 as suggested?

[Ryan]

@rupen-shah Hey buddy,

FA Cup weekend will restrict the selections - I'd give it a couple more days/weeks till the games are fully back in flow.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers Im actually finding it a lot tougher to find matches to fit the above criteria than i initially thought and its always the odds which rule out the trade. Based on the intial post i was expecting to find around 5-10 qualifiers on a saturday, but yesterday only found 1, the mansfield tranmere game. I was obviously also trading some other strategies, but did focus on it during the evening matches and didnt really find any qualifiers. How have other people found using this strategy?

[A Former User]

Is there a minimum spread you should look for on the betfair odds?

[Ryan]

@rupen-shah I haven't used it matey, it was an old members one that worked very very well for a lot of people who used it.

It pretty much gives you everything you need to focus on in the strategy

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers Yep

[Ryan]

@rupen-shah finding games to focus on the above strategy?

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers so if you were recommending potential filters to find games to focus on, what would you suggest. My thought process would a be HT0-0 greater than 45% against similar type opposition.

[Ryan]

@rupen-shah I think its great matey. It's a really really good way to start with trading, I love how it focuses on the small amounts that add up fast.

How do you think it will turn out of you follow it?

[A Former User]

Hi Ryan, it would be great to get you thoughts on this as method - postive and negative.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers still finding my way around but a great read this , cheers mate

[Ryan]

@david-a-moteane Let me know how you get on with it, I'd be interested to know if somebody has success with this.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers brilliant. Thanks Ryan.

[Ryan]

@david-a-moteane It's this I think....

Before I go into any detail, please remember this is how I do things! Doesn’t mean it will work the same as it’s not something you copy, its something you learn to do, and believe me, most of you are already using the same methods as me! What makes the difference between making good money regularly and not is that good old fashioned word used a lot in trading, and that is discipline! Without this you can not and will not make regular money, you have to stick to your plan to the letter! The minute you start to gamble for that extra penny more, you will come unstuck! Greed has to be completely banished from trading, the betting person inside you (and we all have one) must never take over and you must learn to accept loss without any delays. If you do have a betting nature and love a gamble then that’s fine, but keep betting and trading separate. ….more on this through the report below.

My main method is nothing new, unique or clever, its simply doing what a lot of you are already doing, its just all about sticking to a plan and as silly as it sounds to make good money you need to practise, and I know a lot of the new traders out there will hate me for this but you need to train yourself on this method for a good year before trying to earn good money, but the good news is, whilst training you should be aiming to make between £5-£10 a day, so I will talk you through what I did for over a year before making £40-£100 a day!

Basically my method is laying the unders/overs goal markets of football matches, like I said nothing new, all my trades will never exceed 8 minutes! This is one of the most important factors, and the market is always the Over 3.5 goals market.
To cut this short and not bore you all, I look at games from kick off, I look for games with a reasonably slow start, so for the first 10 mins, im looking for
No goals scored
No shots on target by either team
A minimum of 3 shots off target from either team collectively (for this and the above I generally just use Rball on bet365)
A little knowledge of the teams previous 6 games home and away (soccerstats or soccerway for me as I have them permanently open on my phone)

Where ive been doing this for years I know what leagues are god/bad for this, even the little known small leagues, but it is worth researching this as some obscure leagues are complete goals fests and some not at all, for this you will have do your own research and see what feels right for you.

So by 12 mins into the game, if all the above is in order I will place a lay bet of £2 onto the over 3.5 market and look for odds of 3.5 -4.8 max, this typically gives you a liability of between £5-£8. If the odds are lower than 3.5 then leave it, bookies are very good researchers, they have to be, they do get it wrong but genrally if they are giving low odds its for a reason,
We work on the average first goal scored in football is between 20-30mins (obviously this is a very loose stat but its relevant to our system) I remember reading a sports science article on football matches and the results were most players individually and as team will become more effective and focused after running around for 20 mins, how much truth is in that I don’t know but it works for me.

So now we have placed that lay bet, we are going to be looking at trading out very quickly and hoping we can keep the bet going for 5mins or so without a goal. Now a lot of us have been trading a while and understand how to green up, but if you are quite new, then its worth trading the lazy way for this system and that is simply to use the ‘Cash Out’ option! I don’t like saying this as I think its fundamentally important to learn effective trading using the odds and numbers and do it manually, but for this method I like ‘Cash out’ as its straight forward and noobie friendly.
We are going to watch the market and after 2-3mins we will be offered on the cash out box a profit of around 5p-12p and over the next couple of minutes it will hit between 25p-45p! shirt buttons and nothing to get excited about I know but its then we hit the cash out, and never re-visit that game again! Job done.

It is a tedious method but those 25p’s and 45p’s add up very quick, and its only taken a few mins of your life. Even in the close season there is always loads of matches that can be used, and I know a lot will disagree with me here, but I like to get on around 3 matches at any one go! Not advisable to start off with, but when I do this I normally settle for around 30p cash out and move on, and it is very easy to do on a smartphone as long as you have no disturbances within the duration and you have a sound connection.

You need to accept losses! Of course during that time frame of the bet, when you are betting on several games in a day you will have goals scored! The important part of this method working for you is to accept your loss! The advantage of using the over 3.5 goals market is even if one goal is scored there is still a good tradable cushion for you! If a goal is scored your cash out will say around -£1,20, within one or two minutes (and this is important) it will go back to around -£1 because we have that cushion, we then accept the loss and move on! Never be tempted (easier said than done) to hangout that trade to reduce your loss! Because we are now entering the territory where another goal scored will put us to -£3 or so, and that is substantial figure to claw back with this method, accept the £1 loss and move on, 3 trades will make that back. You will get losses, if youre doing 9 trades an hour will you have a loss on at least one, possibly two, but even with those losses you will still be up. Some days you will get no losses whatsoever, and you will make it upto around the £10 mark very quickly. Its at this point I stop for the day! Some days particularly weekends where there is an abundance of matches, ive hit the £10 mark before lunch! The trick is don’t carry on! Winning streaks happen all the time with this method! You will see! BUT winning streaks often end and you find yourself chasing the loss which is a dangerous place be! Have a rough target in mind and stop when you achieve! Also remember your target is only a target! NOT a must! If you’ve only made £4 and don’t like the look of any games! Go with your gut instinct and stop there for the day! Profit is profit and that £4 is still a successful days trading, numbers and amounts of money should be completely buried in the back of your mind! The only focus you want is a successful trade! A trade that makes 2 pence profit is a successful trade! Therefore if you are watching the game via live stats or for real and you have a feeling that a goals gonna be scored, listen to your head! Trade out whether it be 1p, 2p or -4p, its about using your senses and taking the smallest possible risk/gamble! After all that’s what tradings about right! Getting the edge, but there will always be risk involved, we just need to get the edge by reducing that risk as low as practical! Hence we should never be in a trade for a long period of time! More time = more risk! Get in, get out and move to the next.

So as you guessed, I don’t make £40-£100 a day by using £2 lay bets, but heres the really important part and if your new to this you aint gonna like what I’m going to say! BUT you will not be able to go and replicate the above method and have the same results and then just scale it! I can’t stress enough you have to learn the method and adapt it, and what I did was nailed this system over the course of a year (a bit longer I think) and whilst doing it I learned and learned what leagues were giving me best results, what I was doing wrong when getting a loss and learning patterns and regularities! And even more important than that I was learning how to reduce and avoid my losses! You’ve all had it when trading and it was all going well and you were delaying the trade to get those extra few pence, and then all of a sudden, something happened in the game giving you a loss! And you always say to yourself ‘Damn! If only id traded a minute sooner?’ … this should be telling you next time you WILL trade a minute sooner, because as you know, those extra minutes often make a world of difference! Yeah sure many times you may of held out and made a fair bit extra than you set out to, but losses mean an emotion that you find yourself chasing, and this is what you need to avoid! Profit is profit it all adds up.

So you need to play with this for a year using the £2 lays, practise, record and improve your method, you will hit lots of non profitable days, but you will learn from them, and believe me it takes a years worth of learning to tweak and feel confident with your system, and when and only when you are making consistently profitable days as I was of between £4 - £10, you can move it up, and its quite simple to do so! You’ve done a year of these £2 lays, you have your head fully tuned into that figure of £2 and you know exactly from it youre liability and the amount you will cash out i.e 25-45p, so when increasing stakes, keep it simple, just add a ‘0’ and start using £20 lays, the method works exactly the same, the figures and numbers are the same, there will be no confusion as you just add a ‘0’ to everything! So where your liability was between £5 and £8 its now between £50 and £80 and instead of cashing out 25p – 45p we are now cashing out £2.50 - £4.50 per trade, and if our daily profits were £4 - £10 a day, they are now £40 - £100 a day! Money makes us emotional, as soon as we see our liability as a far bigger amount it knocks our confidence, therefore keeping your increase as simple as possible and spending time to learn your method is secret to making it work! The hardest thing is accepting losses, instead of the cash out offering -£1.20 which we can deal with, £12 sounds much worse, and if youre not strong enough you will find yourself staying in longer to reduce the loss! Its still the same loss in relation to the method, so don’t think it as money! Forget money! Its just a number, its about your trades making a + and not a -, that should be your focus.

What I’ve learnt

Each trade should be as quick in and out as possible
Small amounts add up fast
Accepting small losses eliminates big losses
Takes a long time learning and practising, but the longer you take to perfect your method in a way that suits you, the more success you will have
Never chase a loss
See money as a number, not money lose the emotional attachment! Emotions effect decision making.
Its far better to practise with real moneys as opposed to paper trades, as money gives us an emotion you don’t get with paper trades, its easy to paper trade, much harder with real money! But keeps stakes low.
Don’t give up after a bad month! Like all things practise will get you there

And most of all! Have fun! Enjoy it and post in the group how your getting on or any interesting methods you have adapted! Lets keep this group great and work together!

[A Former User]

@philip-collier spot on Philip it was £10 a day. I think it was trading U2.5/U3.5 goals for a small profit but exiting if a goal was scored