CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List - 25/01/19:
Results:
Will be looking to build a position in the following games around BTTS Yes at evens or greater:
Maastricht v Helmond - enter the market from 30mins depending on the game action. Expecting this to go over 2.5 with BTTS.
No trade - the home side dominated the first half and with no sign of improvement in the second half I decided to pass on this one.
Antwerp v Liege - Not looking at over 2.5 with this one but will monitor with a view to backing BTTS from evens or better. Will look to enter the market at 35 mins depending on the game action.
I actually got quite lucky with this one - the game action was supportive and I was in the market from halftime onwards, dropping 0.25 points in at a time I managed to get average odds of over 7! Was annoyed when Lamkel got sent off for a second yellow around the hour mark but delighted with two quick goals for very healthy 6points return.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke - Not looking at over 2.5 with this one but will monitor with a view to backing BTTS from evens or better. Will look to enter the market at 25 mins depending on the game action.
Missed out on this one as the opener was before my planned entry, bit frustrating as they duly scored two each before halftime! No trade.
All in all one of those sessions that feels more lucky than good but I’ll take it all the same!
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 25/01/19:
Will be looking to build a position in the following games around BTTS Yes at evens or greater:
Maastricht v Helmond - enter the market from 30mins depending on the game action. Expecting this to go over 2.5 with BTTS.
Antwerp v Liege - Not looking at over 2.5 with this one but will monitor with a view to backing BTTS from evens or better. Will look to enter the market at 35 mins depending on the game action.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke - Not looking at over 2.5 with this one but will monitor with a view to backing BTTS from evens or better. Will look to enter the market at 25 mins depending on the game action.
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 14/01/19:
Not a lot on today but obviously we have the Man City match tonight. My thoughts are that the market is over estimating City here, yes they have ruthlessly dispatched lower league opponents in the cup competitions recently but Wolves are a different proposition and have actually been quite tight in their away games this season.
Looking at the XG data for Wolves away games it shows that they haven't conceded more than 1.5 XG in any away match and have restricted Man U to 0.67 XGF, Arsenal to 0.77 XGF and Spurs to 0.29 XGF.
Dont get me wrong its still highly probable that City will win this match but I cant have them at 1.19 to back in the match odds market. That's a lay to back opportunity as I see it. Other ways to get with Wolves in this game include backing BTTS Yes (70% of games against similar opposition this season, 67% against all teams).
The Asian handicap for Wolves +2 is currently trading at evens too - that's also worth keeping an eye on given the above.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Nothing from me today. Will watch the Man City game if I can get the kids to sleep in time!
Hope everyone filled their boots in the overs markets!
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 10/01/19
Just the one game today that could be worth monitoring.
Portimonense v Braga.
Over the last twenty games these two average 3.35 goals with 1.6 in H1 and 1.75 in H2. Average time of first goal is 26 mins. 70% of the 20 games went over 2.5 and 65% had BTTS.
Ill have a watch to see if an angle can be discerned based on the play. The stats above lend themselves nicely to splitting up some stakes into the overs markets from 20 mins out if the play is open and supportive. Wouldnt discourage anyone from building a position in the first half goals market either.
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Nothing from me today. Will watch the Man City game if I can get the kids to sleep in time!
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Results - 08/01/19
Minus 1 point on the inplay back of over 1.5
Plus 1 point on the scalping from Nantes v Montpellier.
Scratch.
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Inplay - over 1.5 Spurs v Chelsea at evens or greater.
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Trading plan/watchlist 08/01/19
Not much going on today in terms of league football. Will be keeping an eye on Nantes v Montpellier for some unders and BTTS NO scalping opportunities.
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@chris-watts great work as ever!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Watch List/Trading Plan – 07/01/19
Two games catch my eye today for FHG’s:
Celta Vigo v Ath Bilbao
67% of their last 6 games versus similar opposition type have gone over 1.5 FHG’s. Average goals in H1 is recorded at 1.67 with average time of first goal at 14 minutes.FC Porto v Nacional
89% of their last 9 games versus similar opposition type have gone over 1.5 FHG’s. Average goals in H1 is recorded at 2.44 with average time of first goal at 21 minutes.I’ve been doing very well at these over the xmas period. The way I play it is to back over 1.5 FHG for 2 points. Entry into the market is split into 4 stakes over the first 25 minutes or so (I always watch the first 5 mins to try and get a read on the tempo). Obviously if the game is dead then don’t add to the position.
If no goals are scored by the time I get my 4th portion into the market then I need to make a call on whether to exit and take the loss or if the game action supports cover the position in the over 0.5 FHG market so one goal gives you scratch. The cover bet can be dripped in too.
Late goals with this can give very big wins, as always match selection is key because a goal is needed to give some insurance.
Two out of two and a nice 4 point profit.
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 07/01/19
Two games catch my eye today for FHG’s:
Celta Vigo v Ath Bilbao
67% of their last 6 games versus similar opposition type have gone over 1.5 FHG’s. Average goals in H1 is recorded at 1.67 with average time of first goal at 14 minutes.FC Porto v Nacional
89% of their last 9 games versus similar opposition type have gone over 1.5 FHG’s. Average goals in H1 is recorded at 2.44 with average time of first goal at 21 minutes.I’ve been doing very well at these over the xmas period. The way I play it is to back over 1.5 FHG for 2 points. Entry into the market is split into 4 stakes over the first 25 minutes or so (I always watch the first 5 mins to try and get a read on the tempo). Obviously if the game is dead then don’t add to the position.
If no goals are scored by the time I get my 4th portion into the market then I need to make a call on whether to exit and take the loss or if the game action supports cover the position in the over 0.5 FHG market so one goal gives you scratch. The cover bet can be dripped in too.
Late goals with this can give very big wins, as always match selection is key because a goal is needed to give some insurance.
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Hello guys, sorry I’ve been a bit quiet recently. Been adjusting to having another little baby in the house and busy with Xmas etc.
In many ways looking after a newborn is very similar to trading, both require huge amounts of planning, various strategies are deployed and your still on 60% likely to get the outcome you want!
In any case I’ll hopefully get some trading in today.
The Aussie game at around 9am (Sydney v Brisbane) could be an opportunity. Combined they record percentages of 75% for over 2.5 and 65% for BTTS. Average time of first goal is 23mins. I’ll be watching and looking to side with overs if the prices creeps up above evens. A lay of Brisbane would be appealing too if they score first as on average they concede 2.2 goals versus 1.2 scored. As always though watch the game and monitor the action, look for confirming signals that the game will fit the research. Time the entry well, it makes the exit much easier.
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 19/12/18
Will be monitoring these games for first half goals. Will watch the first 10 mins play and then start to build a position if the action is supportive.
Werder Bremen V Hoffenheim (averaging 1.55 goals in H1 with average time of first goal at 27 mins)
Bayern Munich V Leipzig (averaging 2.25 goals in H1 with average time of first goal at 15mins)
Hibernian v Rangers (averaging 1.6 goals in H1 with average time of first goal at 26mins)
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@Keith-Anderson @Simon @Frode-Lia Thanks for the messages guys!
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Weekly Results:
A little later than usual but here are my results for W/C 10th December.
10/12/18 +7.55
11/12/18 -1
12/12/18 Nothing
13/12/18 +0.5
14/12/18 Nothing
15/12/18 Nothing
16/12/18 NothingOverall Result + 7.05 points
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Nothing from me for a few days guys, we welcome the latest addition to the family home today (little boy) so I’ll have my hands full!
Mazel tov!
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@chris-watts congratulations and all the best! I’m 7 months in with my first.
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@chris-watts Congratz Chris
