STD (Standard Deviation)
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STD (Standard Deviation)
"Does anyone know of cases where someone wagers larger amounts after 3+ standard deviations, rather than just dealing with small change?
If a method has an EDGE and thus positive expectation, it is no coincidence if such a method hits marks above 3+ STD. As long as the odds are 1.7 or higher, the setup works.
Therefore, bets around €500+ per wager are not unreasonable, given that losing streaks rarely exceed two consecutive losses.
A total regression involving four points would imply an abnormal correction.
If anyone has heard of or knows of something similar, please share." -
Sounds a little like Kelly staking, where your stake is based on your edge over the market odds. The bigger your edge, the bigger your stake.
Great staking plan as long as you're confident about your "true" odds for a selection.
Formula is:
f = (((b-1)*p) – (1-p)) / (b-1)Where:
- f = fraction of your bank roll to stake
- b = current available betting odds for selection
- p = true probability of winning
E.g. you have a bank of £1000. Current odds for your selection are 4.0 and you've calculated the true probability as 30%. Your calculation is therefore:
f = (((4-1) * 0.3) - (1-0.3)) / (4-1) f = 0.0667 stake = 0.0667 * 1000 = £66.70
