*****New Football Thread*****
-
@Richard-Latimer So do you record the odds of all the selections that qualify manually then? One of my strats has a lot of selections so could be a lot of work to do it that way, but agree it would the way to get the most accurate info
-
@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Question for everyone - How do people deal with odds fluctuations when testing football strategies? Also I’ve noticed, that new selections for a given strategy will appear in the software throughout the day, mainly the smaller league games may get added later where there will be little matched in the early hours of a day and odds will only become settled closer to kick off time.
Do people just pick a set time of each day to do the SW download and be consistent? Or do you check multiple times a day and do multiple downloads if necessary?
I've spoken so much about how important the odds are to my stuff recently but I export every possible fixture and if it doesn't fit at the end I'll track but won't trade.
To my mind you should remove the odds criteria from filter. Export everything. Have them all as potentials which may or may not qualify depending on odds just before kickoff. Up until then it can change massively anyway.
-
@Alex-Rendell Yeh was thinking of doing at 2 or 3 set times a day. Good shout! Consistency is key I agree
-
@Andy-Donnelly personally, I think you have to be consistent with your approach to get the most reliable dataset possible; so either download all the selections for the day at one set time, OR stick to 2 or 3 strict times throughout the day to catch any other selections that may crop up (7am, 12pm & 5pm for example). As long as you maintain the same approach as much as you reasonably can, then your dataset should be reliable (just make sure this approach suits you and your life).
-
Question for everyone - How do people deal with odds fluctuations when testing football strategies? Also I’ve noticed, that new selections for a given strategy will appear in the software throughout the day, mainly the smaller league games may get added later where there will be little matched in the early hours of a day and odds will only become settled closer to kick off time.
Do people just pick a set time of each day to do the SW download and be consistent? Or do you check multiple times a day and do multiple downloads if necessary?
-
Morning all - I've been a bit quiet recently. Had a bit of a wobble with April and May so far on some strats that I thought were bankers. But I'll keep reviewing.
Spotted this for this AM - Yokohama FM v Kashiwa - LAY over 3.5 at 3.2.
The over 2.5 LAY price is also 1.88 if you are feeling more confident
BOOOM - winner winner
-
@Alastair-Todd remove liability where possible and don't rely on cashout itself, if the liquidity is low the offer will be crap
-
@Alastair-Todd Ouch
-
Wow! The Betfair cash out facility is a real rip-off unless presumably there is huge liquidity. I was laying the home team in Tokyo v Kobe - stood to lose £8 and win £2.20. At the 93 minute stage of the game the cash out figure was 60p!! How can that be right?! Presumably they are banking on the very late goal - in fact the home team scored at 94 minutes (almost as if they knew?) but thankfully it was disallowed...
Edit: Home team scored a penalty at 101 minutes.... that'll be -£8 then. Crikey.
-
Still finding my way - but because a lot of my testing strats need goals I like the % 0-0 HT & % 0-0 at FT
-
@Shannon-Townsend I always like that one, especially paired with the First to score % compared to the first conceded.
-
@Richard-Latimer yeah it's mental how much of a difference odds ranges affect each and every individual league - I used to apply a blanket approach to all leagues, which was fine to a point, but getting league-specific has completely transformed everything!
-
@Alex-Rendell The odds and the leagues and specific odds to specific leagues are playing such a HUGE part in my systems now. For example MLS has been awful below 5.6 for overs yet Romania has so far been pretty great 3.4+ but most terrible under that.
GER Bundesliga seems to have a sweet spot that still up until now has provided many selections. Go above that and it's awful. Go below that and it too is awful.
-
Happy days - I had Hakan Calhanoglu to be carded, Raphinha to score and game to be drawn, at 58. Really wish I'd put a tenner on it instead of £1. What an unbelievable game!!
-
@Martin maybe not a “stat” as such, but ODDS ODDS ODDS are fundamental in any strategy. Particularly for me, home odds and over 2.5 goals odds will drastically dictate how well certain systems or datasets perform and this has been a game-changer in my own trading this year.
-
@Martin For me it seems to be the statistic that offers indirect confirmation/support for whatever outcome we are looking for.
For example, if you are a totally unimaginative and conventional SHG goal trader like myself, it is the easiest thing in the world to look for +0.5 SHG or Average SHG stats, but having fiddled around a bit with a few alternatives, I find that I get most comfort when I add a +1.5SHG filter. So I can't tell you the most important stat is X, but I can say that often, the strongest proofs are the semi-related stats. These correlations usually reveal themselves a few hundred results in when you realise your win rate goes up significantly when you look at what happens to the results when you only trade where, for example, +1.5SHG is above 70 or something like that.
-
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Got a question for the footy traders, what stat do you think is most important for football trading?
Number of games played in the season. Every other stat depends on which strategy you're deploying.
-
@Martin % of games that have finished nil nil
