The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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So 2023 has nearly come to an end and its been quite a speedy journey to Betfair Trading as didnt know it existed 8 months ago but after a year of matched betting, 3 months of trading and a month of BTC i am hoping i am in a position to get the mindset straight and kick on from here... i have spend the day creating stratagys that i will paper trade over the next few months and will hopefully compliment and then replace my current LTD stratagy which seems to be pretty good but only ever feels like being a bad run away from back to square 1... anyway, not expecting anyone to read this but hoping it will keep me on track as i have a tendency to overtrade (sure thats a common issue)...
Happy New Year to any poor sod who spent the last few minutes reading this
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32 trades since last update and LTD continuing to go in the right direction... gained another 4 pts over the last 9 days... it is slow and steady at the minute.
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@Shannon-Townsend - Great feedback, am about 12 months behind you, so am enjoying reading your progress so far. I can definitely relate to the "giving it a few more minutes" comment
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Quick trading update -
I feel like i have turned a real corner since losing my data 6 weeks ago, i am tracking various things and my new spreadsheets are both easier and quicker to update but also track more data than i was previously...
Whilst i am paper trading all my set and forget bits to get enough data to feel confident in i have been actually trading my LTD albeit with minimum stakes at this stage...
I joined BTC 18 months ago with the idea of LTD being my one and only stratagy but i quickly had my head turned by other things i read about and saw working for others and so jumped around a bit and needless to say my discipline and emotional decision making was lacking, however, i really feel in control now and am happy to trade out at my stop loss if needs be without a second thought (in the past i would have given it a few mins just in case the goal came)... it was the winning edge challenge that was a catalist here as i was given the over 1.5 split stake to track but very quickly realised it wasnt for me, however, reminded me that trading rather than just set and forget was for me, and so back to the classic LTD i went.
here is my graph (showing off another new skill) after 256 trades... currently 7pts up which i am really happy with..
my paper trading bits i am testing are as follows currently -
1st half goal - 64 selections - 3pts profit
BTTS - 115 selections - 5pts profit
Lay Away - 57 selections - 6pts profit
2nd half goal - 58 selections - 8pts profit
O3.5 - 94 selections - 1pt loss
O2.5 - 130 selections - 4pts profit
O1.5 - 98 selections - 8pts loss
not such a quick update after all
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@Shannon-Townsend am excited to see where this takes me and feel that i now have enough discipline to accept a loss and move on rather than being tempted to stay in the trade etc...
that is a huge step forward for any trader, well done!
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@Shannon-Townsend - March update
so after losing my spreadsheets this month i have ended the month with a a fresh perspective on my trading...
I am now tracking 6 or 7 set & forget stratagies but with the plan i can use them as trading stratagies in the future rather than just simply set & forget... i have come to the conclusion i much prefer to actually trade in and out rather than letting things run... with that in mind i am tracking the over 1.5 split stake as part of the winng edge challenge but also have gone live with my LTD filter which after a year of results is in profit even on a set and forget basis.
I will only trade the LTD for a while and focus all of my attention on these games whilst collecting data on everything else.... am excited to see where this takes me and feel that i now have enough discipline to accept a loss and move on rather than being tempted to stay in the trade etc...
onwards and upwards...
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@Shannon-Townsend If you are using M Office at work, do you have the ability to log into Office 365 from any device at home? This happened to me once and I managed to rescue it. Office 365 is saving all the time so there will be a version somewhere.
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@Richard-Latimer thanks, will look at that...
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@Shannon-Townsend said in The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...:
@Richard-Latimer sadly not, completely my fault really as i always do my spreadsheet in the office and it gets saved on our third party software (which i shouldnt do)... that had a clear out of all old and unwanted documents to clear up space (instigated as i was moaning about it's speed) and sadly my spreadsheets wre collateral damage as forgot thats where they saved...
Thankfully following your message last week i had gone through everything and updated all stratagies with league and odds restrictions so going forward i have set up new spreadsheets with my new found excel knowledge and will be collecting even more data and saving them locally... this could actually be a good thing and glad i have this thread for reference as well.
I use Dropbox for pretty much everything. If there's a problem with my computer then the spreadsheet will always be OK. Highly recommend doing that yourself.
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@Richard-Latimer sadly not, completely my fault really as i always do my spreadsheet in the office and it gets saved on our third party software (which i shouldnt do)... that had a clear out of all old and unwanted documents to clear up space (instigated as i was moaning about it's speed) and sadly my spreadsheets wre collateral damage as forgot thats where they saved...
Thankfully following your message last week i had gone through everything and updated all stratagies with league and odds restrictions so going forward i have set up new spreadsheets with my new found excel knowledge and will be collecting even more data and saving them locally... this could actually be a good thing and glad i have this thread for reference as well.
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@Shannon-Townsend said in The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...:
anyone ever deleted all of their spreadsheets permentantly??? has made me feel quite sick...
have our IT department working on it but as it's a personal item not sure they will try too hard.
only positive is i had done a deep dive at weekend and implemented some league restrictions etc so guess its a fresh start on my revised stratagies from now.
Not in recycling bin?
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anyone ever deleted all of their spreadsheets permentantly??? has made me feel quite sick...
have our IT department working on it but as it's a personal item not sure they will try too hard.
only positive is i had done a deep dive at weekend and implemented some league restrictions etc so guess its a fresh start on my revised stratagies from now.
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@Shannon-Townsend I can post the formulas needed to filter the data tomorrow or something. It's pretty similar.
I feel a good working knowledge of excel really helps with these things. If I can't see the woods for the trees I become dissolusioned.
I start filtering and looking for patterns way earlier than others as to see something performing well theoretically helps me continue to put the work in.... even if I know there are likely changes to come.
If all I'm seeing is a mass of data that is going up and down I lose interest and struggle to put the time in.
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@Richard-Latimer thankr you again @Richard-Latimer, have been looking at the leagues on my btts strat and i always thought League 2 was a really good one for me but take it out and i would be 11 pts better off... feel like learning to read the data i have collected is the next stage in my journey.
so odds ranges in my btts dont seem to show a clear trend, however, with some very pbvios and simple league restriction my profit would have more than doubled... time to track the new filter.
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This post is deleted!
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@Richard-Latimer thanks Richard, really appreciate you taking the time to reply in such detail... Will read through your reply again and take it on board.
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@Shannon-Townsend Really can't stress enough how much you need to look at individual leagues and not necessarily the same ones for each system.
Also look at whether high or low odds succeed or fail for each league.
Only way I've finally been able to produce what I believe is now going to be highly profitable portfolio is from a) making mistakes, b) looking at between 12 to 16 different parameters on each one (doesn't mean they will all be relevant on every system but if you think they may....track them), then look for patterns within the data.
What I've started doing now for all is this. And I do it more than once as things change. Eventually you realise some things are not going to change and then you're just tweaking around the edges with leagues, odds and the occasional paramter which will work in summer leagues but not winter for example.
I get my raw data and I look at the top/bottom end of every parameter for the yield. When I've gone through them all I filter the data that has worst yield and do it all over again without the the removed data. Eventually I get to a point where no negative parameters exist.
Then I can look at leagues, then odds, then leagues and odds.
Eventually I get something which is starting to look quite robust. Some leagues will take longer to prove themselves or to ultimately fail. Some will do so quickly. If I'm unsure on a league I generally don't mess around. Filter it until I am....if it gets worse or stays the same I made the right decision. If it improves. I missed a few successful trades but this is great for the data.
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Forgot we are now somehow in March so late update and a mixed month but here goes -
Lay u1.5 goals (dead) - this has officially died. after a year of tracking it is pretty much at even... will do a deep dive and see if i can shed some light
LTD 1st half only (live) - up 9 pts this month so 14 pts up for the year so far, i like this strategy as not many selections so think i give them more attention
BTTS (live- for now) - down 4 pts for the year and very time consuming as loads of selections and have to look up odds manually.
Lay Away (live) - down 3 pts for the year
Serie A over 2.5 goals (live)- down 3 pts for the year but currently paying for itself over course of the season
Over 2.5 goals (paper trading) - gone from 14 pts up last month to 9pts down this month, am hoping it continues to be terrible so i can flip it in time
really enjoying looking at the over 1.5 split and do feel more in control when less selections and trading rather than set and forget... this is 0.5 pys up but only a handful of eligible games so far.... also revisting a LTD strat whcih i ditched early on in my journey as i had no discipline, hoping i have grown in that department.
overall in real money terms i have made 4pts so far this year so whilst not amazing i am not losing money.
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