*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Mark-Maguire I did not know that about Leeds, this stuff is fascinating to me. About to download the book soccernomics too.
That is amazing, to be fair I was actually the same with the NFL. I was not really doing anything on a Sunday evening, remember having a few of the games as a kid and then put it on. Loved it for a while they came over and I wanted to see it live.
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@Ryan agree regarding the big teams - this started years ago over radio rights Leeds were the first to exit the league deal and do their own.
Regarding Rugby the argument was it brought new audiences - they saw it on the streaming and wanted to sample the atmosphere which you can see working in football - part from at Man City’s “council house stadium “
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@Mark-Maguire I think this whole thing is fascinating, I would 100% see the issue with the fact that they top teams would be questioning this as well you think Liverpool and United for example they would be able to command a huge audience worldwide if they were allowed to sell their own stream.
I could then see City/Chelsea/Newcastle taking advantage of this, a shell company or a shell company buys X subscriptions to watch these teams which is basically just their owners using it a s vehicle to get money into the club and pump the revenues.
What was the reasoning why the crowds in Rugby grew with streaming? Be interesting to see that.
It's kinda already the wild west with the TV rights lol
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@Ryan Streaming - my pet subject !Its a very complex situation which is based all around (unsurpisingly) money, fear and the international nature of the game.
I have done a massive amount of work on streaming as I may have bored you with before and was responsible for the idea and launch of the National Leagues platform which the EFL have largely copied.
Because the idea of streaming is relatively new - basically Covid saw the opportunity open up to clubs individually at all levels and clubs sold subscriptions to season ticket holders (who also still bought season tickets to help the clubs) .. clubs fell in love with the idea of being able to stream direct and hammered the governing body for the right to stream games - the governing bodies of course were in the middle of long term rights deals with TV Companies who didn't want it turning into the Wild West.
At the National League we got agreement from what was BT Sport and created something which the only restrictions were 3pm on a Saturday - an FA Rule which will probably go at some point means you still can't televise at that time other than in the international break, protecting crowd numbers is the principle behind it but from the due diligence I did in Rugby and other sport crowds actually grew with streaming.
Anyway the money part is that worldwide there is a race for "Content" with all of the new channels and the likes of DAZN, Apple TV, Amazon - they need content to populate their platforms and are throwing crazy money at it to secure rights - I am 100% convinced that in the next ten years some of these will disappear because the money is mad and some of the content football wise won't sustain them -
Anyway the point is this has the Premier League and EFL 1) Giddy with the money they can get and 2) Scared
Giddy because there are so many companies offering cash, scared because increasingly the clubs like the idea of owning their own rights... Liverpool for example could turn themselves into a broadcaster and guarantee millions of streams .. the difficulty for clubs would be the away team and away games ... anyway thats for the future but I can tell you the discussion at the National League was we could probably long term broadcast ourselves and especially when they lift the 3pm Saturday restrictions.
But for the Sunday 2pms thats all about satisfying international rights - the schedule yesterday on Canal Plus here in France was they streamed all 3 2pm games on different channels - pick your game , and then the main event for the was the City game on the 5.30 slot (4.30 UK) - when you talk to TV Companies (Sky included) they had a very set schedule they want to fill and get first pick plus agreements between each other not to compete - so the lunchtime and late afternoon slots on a Saturday, the early and afternoon kickoffs on a Sunday etc etc..
Anyway I'm rambling but maybe that explains a bit
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@Martin What I don't understand is why the FA isn't getting involved with streaming this themselves, they say they want to support grassroots football and develop the game, a gamepass style membership of the premier league would make them so much money it would be crazy.
Met a guy at a wedding who worked as a video editor on the cricket for Sky Sports and he said that the whole of Sky was basically for the football and everything else had to make do. They spend so much to get the football and it basically keeps everything else going.
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@Akiva-Anderson nuts isn't it. Apparently people wouldn't go to the games if it was on TV but we know that isn't true, especially in the Premier League.
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Three premier league matches kicked-off at 2:00pm. Only one of them on TV. It’s an absolute travesty. Why should Skysports be dictating what we watch? Outside of the UK can choose which match they want to watch. I’m actually f*****g sick of it
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson you had any luck getting the AI to analyse the data on your sheets?
Haven’t even looked at it yet.
I've not had any luck with it yet, can't wait for the day I can just chuck a sheet into it and simply say tell me top performing leagues.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I went for a SHG in the Lyon v Toulouse match. 0-0 at HT
Looking like this will finish 0-0. Bizarrely, both teams look happy with a draw
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I went for a SHG in the Lyon v Toulouse match. 0-0 at HT
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Loved that Newcastle v Bournemouth match. Didn’t see that result coming. I expected a draw
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson you had any luck getting the AI to analyse the data on your sheets?
Haven’t even looked at it yet.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Mark-Maguire couple of questions on these, are there any odds you avoid? I know you don't mind short odds, just wondering how short. Also, how do you further refine the games from the list you get from your filters?
Thanks
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@Akiva-Anderson you had any luck getting the AI to analyse the data on your sheets?
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Long list to work through today but amongst them:
02.5 split stake
Bayern vs Wolfsburg
Bolton vs Cambridge
Zwolle vs PSV
Brugge vs Beerschot
Mechelen vs Genk -
Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar. I got Sydney at 1.53. They are now 1.42.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson what odds were utd at KO? would have been great value late on!
Not sure. I got them at 1.35. When Southampton scored United were 3.0
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@mick-mcmahon said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Gotta fancy United at home to Southampton tonight?
Ha ha, I dunno... They're so random at the moment
Never in doubt!!
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@Akiva-Anderson what odds were utd at KO? would have been great value late on!
