Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

So that ended in my favour. 1-2.

On this basis I have to go with another home lay for this evening. Wales is currently just in the red but with only one loss from 4 trades. It is however a qualifier and everything points to the home team failing to win.

Laying Barry.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

So that ended in my favour. 1-2.

Richard Latimer

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

Richard Latimer

@Martin agreed so I don't take them out until I have reason to. With the filter in excel I can just add and remove based on what I see.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.

One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.

yes that is a really good point, my only thought on that is that there are quite a few leagues that will only give a handful of selections so when combined can be a decent number.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.

However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.

Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany Bundesliga

I reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.

The last time I made a decision like this it came back to bite me on the arse. But I just can't ignore every single German Bundesliga selection anymore. There are simply loads on the raw data, a fair few filtered qualifiers and a good percenatge of those which fall below 6.8 to lay (12 trades and 1 loss for a 7pt profit.

So Bundesliga dependent on price being 6.8 or lower (I'll use odds portal if in any doubt on befair as that's the prices I've been using up to now).
Wales as normal.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

2x low odds home lays tomorrow:

Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.

And the other ends 1-0.

Richard Latimer

There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.

However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.

Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany Bundesliga

I reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

2x low odds home lays tomorrow:

Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.

Richard Latimer

Over 1.5 for tomorrow:

Richard Latimer

@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.

One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer yeah I have a similar issue with Thailand and it is hard to eliminate because of so few selections meaning a very small sample size of data.

Richard Latimer

@Martin yeah, put me red for Jan and also put Thai league just in red from only 5 selections since last Feb.

Thai league is also at a flat £0 in the overs with 5 games since April.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer I don't think I have ever watched a Thai game, I wonder what the football is like? Probably not a league you will miss by the sounds of it. Has that put you red now?

Edit: Just checked and a Thai game stopped a run of 12 in a row lay home team wins on one of my strategies yesterday!

Richard Latimer

No overs for Monday or Tue morning

Richard Latimer

2x low odds home lays tomorrow:

Richard Latimer

Thailand off the board for now. All be it a bit too late:

Richard Latimer

The benefits to splitting your bank into a pot for each system. One doesn't drag the other down. If only one goes well and the other treads water for now I'll cope with that:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay under 1.5 on these:

2/2

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer good work on this, how is your year going so far? had a look at the sheets and they look like they are going well overall.

@Martin well they were both headed in the right direction until Thailand threw a spanner in the works. Really don't like that league.

So home lays now in the red,
Overs just about in profit.