Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Oh yeah, Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays one and all!!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
And another preview of the over 1.5:
This one only if price to lay under 1.5 is 7.4 or under 5 minutes before kick off (not that I'm trading these until Jan).
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Home lay for Boxing Day:
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Got nothing on my home lays tomorrow but another little preview of the over 1.5:
This continues to bode well. 0-2.
Nothing on Christmas Eve and from what I can see nothing on the BIG day itself. I'm going to post up anything for Boxing Day/27th tomorrow as I'll surely forget if I wait.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Meanwhile, back on the existing home lays....
Not many selections around at the moment. And the ones that are tend to be coming from leagues which don't normally qualify.
That said.
Finally have one tomorrow:
A very one sided 0-0 in Portugal. I'll update months results soon but it's been a bit depressing.
Being confident I'm almost certain the O1.5 is going to slay in January.
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Got nothing on my home lays tomorrow but another little preview of the over 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
2nd day of the overs although I will not be trading until Jan:
Odds on the Prem game could have been over 11.00. As it has already won i'll delete it from my records. If it had lost I would include it. Best to base things on the worst case scenario.
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2nd day of the overs although I will not be trading until Jan:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Right, let me just showcase the overs:
Now what I'm looking to do is use 80% of the p/l that makes up my entire system. This will weed out the leagues with not much happening hopefuly before any damage is done. Then 1 month later I'll look to use 81%, then 82%....et etc etc....until I'm confident with it all.
I say this because while CRO HNL and POR Liga Portugal are close they are not quite there. Serbia has a little further to go still.
Were I starting from tomorrow I would only be trading the ENG Prem game and the Eredivisie game.
On the whole, success today with the overs. As I stated Serbia had a way to go and Croatia/Portugal almost there.
They are now that bit closer. Plus City Lost. Again!!
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Meanwhile, back on the existing home lays....
Not many selections around at the moment. And the ones that are tend to be coming from leagues which don't normally qualify.
That said.
Finally have one tomorrow:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Right, let me just showcase the overs:
Now what I'm looking to do is use 80% of the p/l that makes up my entire system. This will weed out the leagues with not much happening hopefuly before any damage is done. Then 1 month later I'll look to use 81%, then 82%....et etc etc....until I'm confident with it all.
I say this because while CRO HNL and POR Liga Portugal are close they are not quite there. Serbia has a little further to go still.
Were I starting from tomorrow I would only be trading the ENG Prem game and the Eredivisie game.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
All leagues for tomorrow are under my threshold of historical selections so that's another day with nothing.
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@Andy-Donnelly well my backtesting is excellent.
All I've done is start with a broad range of statistics which I feel are relevant then I go through them individually and exclude the stat with highest negative yield. Then I go again and again and again.
Stat has to be at top or bottom of range. Will never exclude anything in the middle as it's not logical.
I've done that for overs, unders, away lays and now I'm trying it with home lays.
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@Richard-Latimer Sounds good, will be following with interest. I don’t know why but the O1.5 market has caused me no end of pain, numerous strategy ideas failed in the past so keen to see it go well!
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@Andy-Donnelly I'm looking at both scored and conceded for home and away as well as how many times both have scored conceded more than 1.
I don't look at averages at all anymore as they can be easily skewed. I think percentages are a much more accurate reflection.
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@Richard-Latimer What stats are using for your O1.5 filter out of interest?
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Nothing Friday again. Really looking forward to splitting the pot between this and my over 1.5 in Jan. Although actually I've got nothing on that for tomorrow either.
While I'm not going to start putting actual money until Jan 1st on those I might post up what would be in the meantime.
I'm also going to start working on a 2nd home lay system getting rid of certain overcomplications. The current one is much less complicated than previous things I've been guily of trying in the past but the others I've been working on since are all far simpler and that's the only way I'm going now.
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And so as Christmas draws nearer I am still no closer to righting the ship. That said. A) Thank god I left Serie A today. B)Serbia is starting to pull in the right direction and I feel a little more confident for the next set of fixtures.
Slavia game did provide me with valuable data even if it was painful at the time. And as the saying goes. We go again.
1/2 today.
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And then I look at the easy win I turned away from in Serbia!
