Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Back in the summer I noticed something quite quickly and did something about it. Low low odds in Sweden, Finland and Norway all lost in quick succession. They were ruled out immediately and from then those leagues prospered (adding these low odds back to Eliteserien only makes things worse for that league in case anyone wondered) for the most part.
Up until Germany Bundesliga I hadn't really noticed this happening with other leagues to such a degree. Higher odds knocking it out of the park consistently. Lower odds all getting hammered. And I've checked. Can't see any other poorly performing leagues this could apply to right now either.
Knocking away all odds below 2.46 improves things hugely. It doesn't help Nov so I'm not just trying to make every month a winner. Just follow striking patterns I can see and not remove the biggest leagues in entirety without due cause.
Anyway, all this is to say.....Bundesliga is back on the table but only for odds 2.46+
I have added the rule to my spreadsheet.
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First is the standard price. Best kind of price.
Second is a low odds lay.
Third is unlikely to be anything as currently home price is sky high.
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Nothing Friday
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it's not been an especially bad start to Dec as is. Low odds have both lost and Norway finished the season by going into the red and making them an exclusion for 2025. Other that things have been decent....just slow.
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Well. I. Never.
2-0, red home, 3-0
11 mins to go
Ends 3-3 with a disallowed away goal to boot.
Love this league!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Well I suppose it's long overdue in this league but not a great a start to Dec!
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Another in my favourite league tomorrow:
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In the end yesterday saw only one trade I was happy with that fit the price credentials. At least it won but that was a break even weekend to go along with the £150 loss on the first week.
Nothing now until at least Wed on this.
My Over 1.5 continues to prosper and I have to take the plunge there in Jan.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Odds on the Turkish game too high anyway by the looks of it. Certainly on the threshold and not a win I'm going to record. Record the losses on the threshold, delete the wins. Can only improve with the actual trade at that point.
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So Switzerland and Germany justified my lack of faith. Galatasaray would have been an easy enough win after the initial stress of a red card.
All building reliable data though.
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This post is deleted!
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As much as it's going to leave very slim pickings and I'm going to leave Sivasspor as well. Galatasaray have won last 10 games away but it's only the 3rd selection including raw data (2nd in refined) that has hit those heights. It's VERY unusual and what goes up must come down. Hopefully it wins but I need more data.
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Almost certainly staying away from Switzerland and German Bundesliga at this present time.
I'm getting to the point where the overs system I've been working on for some time is beginning to supercede this one. That's not to say I'll be stopping this but I do plan on putting another little bank into action come January.
As I've said before I firmly believe security is in diversifying.
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Aberystwyth cancelled. Odds on Waalwijk almost certainly too big.
So 3/4.
But because it's variable staking that's around £70 loss today.
Need some of the lower odds to start winning again.
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Saturday looking positive. All leagues with a little history. Odds mostly seeming to be backup that home side shouldn't win.
Waalwijk odds currently look like they're not going to be low enough but we'll see:
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Nothing until Saturday now
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Madrid lose 2-1 and another setback in a period of setbacks. See the lower odds don't always make the best lays. Hope Barca run away with it now
