Some Simple Maths
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You know, sometimes I need to get out more. I like complicated arithmatic like "How Does Greening Work" and so on. I'll not stop until I have found the solution. I know there are green up calculators out there but I just wanted to know how the maths work. However, I do use the one on Bet Angel. Just for speed.
Anyhow, some of you might find this of interest. This one is how to Green Up but leave one side of the market with a zero.
I made it a bit complicated with random numbers. If you look on the right of the picture you will see all the numbers.
- Backers Stake (£108.36)
- Subtract 1 from the Back Odds (1.17-1=17) then divide the Backers Stake with Back Odds (108.36/17=6.37)
- Then Subtract 1 from Backers Odds which is 1.02 (1.02-1=02) then multiply (6.37 x 2 =12.74)
The reason why it says £12.75 is because I rounded it up to that because it showed a red instead of a green zero. I think this is how Betfair scalp pennies.
Everyone, I do have a sense of humour so if you also agree I need to get out more, please feel free to tell me. I won't be offended :winking_face:
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@shane nice little read that mate, thanks for sharing
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@Shane I love the way your brain thinks!!
I'll re read this when I've had a sleep after being up all night on the Aus Open!
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I want to look at scalping the other side of the market here. In my opinion the best markets for this are the O/U's and especially the 0.5 one.
What this bet is, is laying the (Over 0.5) then laying the (Under 0.5) for a profit. This thread is especially for newbies to understand the maths behind the odds and how you can exploit these price discepancies. Feast your eyes on the chart below.
Now I'll just give you one example because after that the rest will become very clear.
Lets have a look at the (1.01) Now laying this for a £10 Stake will give you the Backers Stake of £1,000 - The chance of you winning that £1,000 are suggested by the odds, 1 in a 100 chance. Some people simply lay this in the hope of getting matched at 1.02 then green it up for a profit of £9.31 after Betfair tax. ROI 93.10%
But believe me, don't think the 1.01 will become 1.02 in a few minutes after KO. I've seen it stay there for around 20 minutes sometimes and when a strong favourite has been priced 1.01 in the 0.5 market, early goals are expected and more often than not they do. I have experienced this at close hand and the emotion is not nice, and yes, I have had my fingers burnt a few times doing this. It has finally got through to me now that this is not quality trading.What we are after here is laying the 1.01 in the Unders and then laying the Overs at a price that is less than 100. This will generate a profit. see example below.
Sorry guys I can't find an example on Betfair of an O/U's 0.5 market, lack of games today, but I have this one that shows laying 1.01 and then laying 75 on the other side.
As you can see laying 1.01 and then laying 75 on the other side of the market will create a profit. You will notice that the green profit is not even as the maths here can not create a whole number.
You see it's the spread between 1.01 and 1.02 - there are no prices between the two of them.
On the opposite side though the spread is 100(1.01) down to 95 - 90 - 85 - 80 - 75 - 70 - 65 - 60 - 55 - 50(1.02). Look how many prices there are between 100 down to 50. The 1.01 is the one to get on the most to exploit this because as the price gets higher, from 1.02 and upwards, the prices between the spreads then get smaller as you can see on the first graph. Be aware though of prices on the opposite side lingering around the 100 as this can hit 110 and beyond, profit lost. And this goes for 1.02 and upwards. The 1.02 beware of the opposite price lingering around the 50 and so on.
Sometimes I find opportunities like this most days. Not just on the 1.01 but sometimes all the way up to 2. All be it for small profits as the market will adjust itself eventually as there are bots operating on Betfair to find these price discrepancies. But again I think it's worth knowing this information.
Just adding a little bit more information on trading the O/U's 0.5 market. Basically this market is saying "Is there going to be a goal or not - will it be 0-0 or won't it be 0-0?". The price on the Under side of this market is pretty much in tandem with the 0-0 on the FT Correct Score market. If the prices in either market go up or down the the prices in both markets will adjust in tandem pretty quickly. It's worth having another window open and keep a sharp eye on the Correct score market.
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@rupen-shah said in Some Simple Maths:
@shane Looks good Shane. Will keep a track of this thread with interest. Waiting for when you figure out how to show a profit on both sides! Lol!
Hi Rupen-Shah, yeh that's the first one I learnt years ago.
Example:- If let's say you have a £100 in the green and £10 in the red. You layed off £10 @odds of 1.10 that would create £100 green and £10 red. Odds moved in your favour to say 1.32, a profit is well due here. So what you do is add £100 (in the green) to the £10 (in the red) = £110. Then divide by the odds, in this case 1.32 = £83.33 Your overall green will be £16.67. Its well worth knowing that from my point of view. The same works the other way round as well if you have to red up for a loss. Hopefully that's a rarity.
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@ryan-carruthers said in Some Simple Maths:
@shane I love this, I love how you think buddy.
You are going to create something special on Betfair - looks like you are bang on as well. Where did you get the idea to do this?
Hi Ryan, I just like maths like this. Just a curiosity really of how the maths works. Makes me understand where I am in the market. And the more you learn about it sometimes you can just look at the market your playing and have a rough idea what the green, or red will be.
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@shane Looks good Shane. Will keep a track of this thread with interest. Waiting for when you figure out how to show a profit on both sides! Lol!
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@shane I love this, I love how you think buddy.
You are going to create something special on Betfair - looks like you are bang on as well. Where did you get the idea to do this?
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