Lay Timeform Tips 5-11 odds & distance >8f
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I have been tracking the strategy in the title now for a full year and the breakdown of the results can be found in the link at the bottom. Placing a lay bet on Timeform's top pick if it falls between 5 and 11 odds and over distances greater than 8f. Lays were placed to a liability of £10. If the top pick is a non-runner then the race is ignored. Overall, a profitable strategy, if a little low ROI, but there are potential opportunities to refine the selections.
The biggest drawdown was roughly 12% of bank and that occurred over ~80 trades. This was in March over the course of 20 days. There was another similar, slightly smaller, drawdown over 28 days that began in the middle of May, which occurred over ~200 trades, so a fairly lengthy losing run!
There are definitely certain courses where this worked better and some courses where it didn't work at all. My only concern is whether there are enough trades, per individual course, to make any concrete assumptions. Class 4 has the best ROI and for some reason Friday is the best day (perhaps due to the mix of courses that have meetings on Friday?) The next year of data will potentially reveal recurring monthly trends, though I'm not expecting this to be a strong enough signal to consider refining selections in this way.
This is data from 15th June 2023 until yesterday. A few missing days here and there and 2 weeks in August with sporadic data as I was on holiday but otherwise complete.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/114tJl3eTNvYRMUDrhl7UCXq8xSe889MlbhrZPWfpCjY/edit?usp=sharing
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@Wayne-Thomas OK thank you Wayne, I will follow with interst ,I noticed 4 possible bets yesterday and 4 winners.
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@Andrew-Hopkins I use any race that is greater than 8f. There are definitely some refinements to be made but I want to collect more data before I start excluding anything else. The strike rate holds across all types of races, but there are definitely individual courses where this strategy underperforms.
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@Wayne-Thomas How does this work on N/H courses, do you use all races 2 miles and above or start at anything for example 2m 3f and above.
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@Wayne-Thomas I used to do something similar back in the day with the racing post naps table.
Anybody -25 on that I would look to lay their selections, that was the first stage of me narrowing down my lays, it was super simple and it worked.
I then built on top of that, which is why I like this a lot.
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@Wayne-Thomas wow really good work there and a nice profit!
