Approaches to trading...
-
@Everyone recently I posted this on Socials...
What do you think about this? I want to create a video covering this as I don't see anything about this anywhere.
I was never that good at maths, still am not! Yet I was able to do well at trading.
I have also seen people like Keith (@Akiva-Anderson) keep it simple and do well, then I have seen others get really statistical and also do well.
There's more than one way to succeed and I want to create something that empowers people who are of whatever style to resonate with and no feel s**t that they can't do this!
I need you guys to help though!
-
@Richard-Latimer This is music to my ears!!!
-
@Ryan This is June for me. Nothing major but I'm already in a race against time.
Was hovering around 10% still thinking there was a good chance I could hit 20% even with minimal selections. Then bang, last weekend of the month and 3 rather unexpected losses later I'm staring at a loss.
I went through the data though and without ripping it all up dropping certain leagues too early it's just one of those things and was always going to happen at some point.
But I'm too disciplined now to go off at the deep end and I simply don't have time for the kind of mistakes that have plagued me for years.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@MICHAEL-ROBERTS This is interesting to see this, I think and always have that I have been at my weakest coming off a good role when I get a few losses and it always made me feel like I had it sorted and cracked then it hit me and hit my confidence and my ego too.
-
Once I am back on the game, I will try my old way of trading and see where it takes me. If I do get that same feeling back like I did at the back end of 2023 I will take it forward, tweaking along the way to round of the edges. also knowing that, trading is full of ups and downs and as long as the curve is on an upward trajectory then I'm on the right path!
-
Let me show you want happened:
7 Days!
30 Days!
As you can see from the graph above, I was doing good, these are the normal ups and downs of trading. Then it started to go wrong and I think I ‘threw my teddy in the corner’ and sulked. I overstaked, chasing the loses and blew it. Ive blown my bank a couple of times before, but this time it really got to me because I thought I was on a roll with it all. I thought I had finally cracked the trading game.
This was back in Jan 24 and I’ve come away from Betfair Trading to focus on my mindset. I still have my annual subscription; I’m playing around with the filters and testing some strategies out. I’m in a better place now (mentally). I should be back in soon, as I have built up my bank again!
-
@MICHAEL-ROBERTS Thats amazing, so tell me what you thought and what you did after a few losses?
That really helps!!
Also how did you pull yourself back in and go 'No, this is how I trade and how I feel confortable trading and this is how I should do it!'
-
Hi Ryan
Sorry maybe I should have explained this a bit better. I was downloading the members filters and regardless of what the selection was I would bring up all the games on flashscore, then looking for a next goal even if the filter was for say, your Betgreen LTD. Does this make sense? So I wasn’t actually LTD @KO. I would do the following:
- Download the members filters onto my excel spreadsheet.
- Bring up all the matches on flashscore.
- If I wasn’t sure about a match, I would bring it up on Soccerstats to confirm the match was viable.
- Follow the matches in-play (but not watching live, just following through flashscore).
- Look at the IPS and xG (and sometimes the momentum bar on Sofascore).
- The xG had to be more than 0.66 for the team, or 1.32 for both team.
- Then I would look for mainly LCS or FHG/SHG depending on the odds, if the odds were not value, I would look at the Overs markets.
So to answer your question. This isn’t the way you or Martin teach how to trade a match and I thought I may get stung If I carried on this way, not following a strategy by the letter. This is why, when a had a few loses on the bounce I stopped what I was doing.
Looking back, this is the most comfortable way I felt whilst trading, so in the end it was my mindset that let me down, not my actual way I traded!
Hope this help mate, looking forward to the video
Mike
-
@MICHAEL-ROBERTS Thank you for being open, this is really interesting....
How come you didn't think it was the BTC way?
What do you think the BTC way is?I have a few more things to chat about with you on this but I dont want to bombard you
I was going to do the video today but I am holding off now as you guys have all been mega, I want to make sure I cover everything in detail and would rather make one video where I cover it all and hit every point.
-
Ryan / Matt
This is great and it would be an amazing topic to cover in a video or podcast!
Can I add in my experience to this.
A couple of years ago, I was trying things out in a different direction. I would download all the Members Filters and bring up all the selections in flashscore. Watching the in-play stats and keeping an eye on the xG to see if there was a goal imminent. My strategy was LCS or FHG/SHG. I got really good at predicting when a goal was coming without ever watching the match just relying on IPS and xG. However, I started to doubt myself as this wasn’t the way BTC had taught me and that I just got lucky. I gave up on it when I lost a few trades on the bounce, which we all know this can play out through variance. I believe this was my style and I am yet to go back to this and re-try my hand.
-
@Matt-Wood That is a hell of a response! You have summed this up perfectly and this has given me a lot of really good information to be able to move this video into a really good place!
Thank you.
Nailed it!
Hoping this will spark others to speak up as well and hopefully we can get a good chat going on about this.
-
@Ryan I’ll try to give you as complete an answer as I can.
In a word, ‘structure’.
However, I understand that is REALLY hard to supply to someone who is new to the industry. The fact that there are so many ways to succeed and the important point that a huge part of what we do is reliant on mentality, mixed with everybody being different, means a blanket style structured beginning is almost impossible.
I think the repeated advice about discipline and sticking to one market first are very good points that everyone needs to learn.
For me though, since I had zero knowledge coming in, I needed to see/try out different methods of trading before I realised what suited my mentality better. Some sort of path that would guide a new member through this process would be helpful I think. Also advising me that this initial process would take time, as I would have to try various methods (on paper) for a little while to see which suited.Once that was done and I had been given the help finding ‘my’ style, this is where the advice about sticking to one market would have applied. I needed this blasted at me though!
For me I struggled with that first bit a lot as, at first, I thought I was just rubbish at this and would not be able to do it at all. I nearly packed it in at the 2 year mark, thinking I was not good enough or clever enough. I would have regretted this and left with the feeling of not giving trading the best chance possible.
During those 2 years I was bouncing around systems and markets with no real consistent success. Largely through trial and error I did eventually find things that suited my mentality. Only once that happened did I see how to apply all the other advice I had picked up from people along the way.
For me the need to find ‘my trading style’ was the most important thing that needed to come first. Whilst I took on board all the other excellent help and advice from people it felt very awkward (cannot think of a better word) trying to apply it to what I was doing. This led me to A LOT of frustration about why the people giving me that advice could make it work but I could not. In turn leading to the thoughts about me not being good/clever enough.
Also I think its worth saying that whilst finding your style as a new trader is very important you don’t have to stick with it forever. In the future when a person has gained more experience and has some consistent success they could start investigating different methods.
-
@Matt-Wood It does, I want to unpack this a little as well because your answer is really good and I know you commented but theres hundreds out there who feel the same so we could create something really good here.
So in the beginning what would have helped you? What would have made you feel more confident about your trading? How did it make you feel about trading and yourself? (You can DM me if you dont want to be that open!)
-
@Richard-Latimer said in Approaches to trading...:
@Akiva-Anderson The sad thing is is he had a lot of useful information to share, if only it wasn't his way or the highway.
Don't miss the novels though.
Betfair meets War & Peace......vol 1 through 10
That’s why I never read much of his posts. F**k me, they went on for days! You could grow a beard by the time you finished reading his stuff
-
@Ryan Great idea for a vid.
This is probably the single biggest thing I struggled with when I started, and probably for about the first 2 years. Not knowing what suits an individual when they first start makes it really tough to pick a route. I never knew if i was on the right path or if I was on the right path FOR ME, or if I was just plain crap at it and couldn't do it no matter the path I took.
Really hard to tell that in the begining when you have next to no knowledge about things.This is where I found the experienced people on here helpful. Nobody directly told me 'do this' (they couldn't as they wouldn't know what is right for anyone else). But you get to see what others do and they make suggestions about things, slowly it comes together in time.
You need to have an open mind though as, like you said, there are many ways to succeed at this game. I for example could NEVER do it the way Akiva does, not unless I hate money that is! But he clearly does well at it and has done for some time now.
-
@Akiva-Anderson The sad thing is is he had a lot of useful information to share, if only it wasn't his way or the highway.
Don't miss the novels though.
Betfair meets War & Peace......vol 1 through 10
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
-
@Akiva-Anderson Except his own....
-
@Akiva-Anderson I am 100% going to use that quote at the start of this video!
