Zero trading knowledge to profitable strategy in 6 months
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I'm at 3 months (15/02/24) with my over 1.5 goals strategy with 3079 recorded games/odds/scores.
I've decided to post my accountability and show you all what I've learnt and how far my trading has come from having zero trading knowledge 6 months ago to having developed my own profitable strategy.
I'll be honest and say it's been an absolute nightmare 3 months of recording data, sometimes having to catch up on days and days worth of data when I didnt have the time to put it onto spreadsheets, but now having it all in front of me has made me realise how important it was to do it and how much it was worth it as I now have lots of valuable data, I asked for help during these 3 months and @adam gave me a short formula for Google sheets, to add information from one sheet to another that cut my data recording down dramatically, thank you for this, tiny bit of help but massive help for me.
I paper traded my strategy to build up my data and to see if it was worth putting real money on it, after about 7 weeks of doing this I read in the forum or watched a BTC video, I cant remember which, which mentioned having an odds range, after giving myself an odds range I seen that my paper traded profit had risen so this was my point at which I decided to start trading with real money, so I started with £1 lay stakes.
I then watched a video from @martin about filtering out poor performing leagues from my data and again, seen that my paper traded profit had risen significantly, so I now started trading within an odds range and only from certain Leagues, my profit was rising slowly but I was in profit, I was happy with this stage I'd reached with trading but I wanted my bank to grow quicker.
This is when I decided to try something different with my stakes and worked out my odds range and how much I'd need to stake so that my liability would never be more than £5, I went back through my data and added variable stakes next to my recorded £1 lay stakes and the difference between them profitably has made me use variable staking since, this spreadsheet shows my games and profit since 19/04/24 using an odds range, filtered out poor Leagues and variable staking, it shows £1 lays and £variable lays so I could compare which staking made better profit.
The spreadsheet shows 3 months of paper trading £2 over 1.5 lay trades and £1 back bets on over 1.5 goals, and the trades, wins and profits, this is my bible, this holds all the information I need to change and tweak my strategy if needed.
I'll continue posting my trading journey and the things I've learnt and also keep up to date with my over 1.5 goals trading strategy.
If there's one thing that I could change about my strategy it would be the amount of filter results I get each week, although it's a profitable strategy with all the many filter results it gives me, I would still like to streamline it somehow so I don't have to spend so much time sorting it out daily, I'll keep reading the forum and watch any videos that get posted cos I know one day I'll see something that could help me do this.
I know we all trade differently, this is how I do it cos it works for me and I'm comfortable with it, I'm still open to ideas or tips about what I've shown you and I'm more than welcome to hear any comments on things you think I should and shouldn't be doing, it all helps me to better what I have.
If someone could tell me how to share a Google sheet to here it will show all my collected games, odds, scores and profit data.
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@Ryan I have 4 versions of this strategy I'm paper trading at the moment, I record the odds for back under and lay over 0.5 ht goals and whichever gives the best profit from backing £5 or laying max liability £5, is the bet I choose.
Version 1 (12/06/24)
509 games, 23% s/r, profit £11.86
Version 2 (04/07/24)
176 games, 41% s/r, profit £56.47
Version 3 (18/07/24)
1649 games, 33% s/r, profit £193.72
Version 4 (18/07/24)
66 games, 49% s/r, profit £63.67
In August I went on holiday to Egypt for 10 days so I couldn't record the true odds for them 10 days while I was away so had to use average odds, I know some of the trades that won would have had higher odds than the average i recorded, so I know that the profits for each version should be a bit higher than they are now.
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@Simon-Bates Thats pretty good odds that, are you laying the 0-0 @ ht then with this?
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@Ryan these are the average odds for backing and laying HT under 0.5 goals from 509 games since 12/06/24, I've not recorded the odds for over ht 0.5, I don't know if you're able to workout or guesstimate the odds for that from this.
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@Simon-Bates Amazing work this!!!
77% Strike rate is pretty solid, whats the average odds you are getting?
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So this is where I'm at now with trading, 10 months of learning and now I'm enjoying it, as a noob when you join here you try to take in as much and watch as much as you can and none of it makes sense, but cos you're a noob you try to learn everything ASAP, doesn't work, I've learnt the basics in how to make a simple profitable strategy and now I have that backbone in place it's given me time to explore and experiment with other aspects of trading.
Like the majority of you it's been quiet the last 2 months due to the leagues finishing, so in that time I've gone through all the stuff I viewed when I first started, gone back through all the threads and re-watched, re-read everything and now cos I've been here a while all the stuff that made no sense to me back then is becoming very easy to understand now, so much to the point that I've been able to experiment with new ways of trading in the last 2 months.
That's why I've been posting my trades, not to show off my wins, not that they were big
but to show off what I've learnt from here and feed off people's comments from my posts.
I've learnt how drip in, leave myself free bets, take my liability out, how to profit from SHG's, just so much finer things and is the reason why I'm enjoying this journey all the more now.
This new 24/25 season will be my 1st proper full season, I'm more relaxed going into to knowing what I've learnt and the experience I've gained from in here.
So that's the reason I've been experimenting and posting my trades and listening to any feedback I get from them, it's how I learn.
I started a HT0-0 strategy which isn't going how I wanted but on the plus side, again something I've learnt from here, I flipped the strategy, it had a low S/R 23% but I realised flipping it gave me a 77% FHG S/R, so this is the next thing I want to learn, I have this data but I'm now sure how to trade FHG's if anyone could help it would be much appreciated
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@Simon-Bates really good work again, enjoyed reading this and love your high level of analysis!
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July trading update:
I've been recording data for these 2 members strategies since December 2023, after 6 months worth of data I was confident of SHG's so I started trading real money on them.
Ryans split stake (SHG)
41 games in July
11 games traded
10 wins
£28 profitMembers SHG filter
29 games in July
17 traded
16 wins
£52 profitI was only able to trade 11 and 17 games respectively due to them being in-play trades, the other games were mostly MLS games in the early hours so couldn't trade these.
While the winter leagues haven't
been on, its given me time to look into trying out other strategies.
So I started a HT 0-0 strategy in the middle of June, by the middle of July I had paper traded 130 games and was £108 in profit, then it nosed dived into minus profit forcing me tweak and develop 3 other versions to see which one would work better for me, the tweaked versions only have different filter settings, I havent had enough filter results to work out best leagues or odds yet.
Of each version of this strategy I had 3 types of staking, backing £5, laying £5 and lay max liabilty of £5. While looking at all 4 strats spreadsheets I realised laying £5 just wasn't profitable compared to backing and lay max £5, so stopped recording it, I also work out each trade and record wether it is more profitable backing £5 or laying max liability £5, depending on the back and lay odds, making sure that if the trade does win then I'll get maximum profit from it.I show everything I do on here, even when it goes wrong, I'm pretty sure we've all done this and I'm pretty sure I won't be the last, 3 days after starting this new strategy the paper traded profit rose to £45 in 3 days, so stupidly I started using real money, it seemed justified when 4 days into using real money the profit had risen to £74, I thought 'I've cracked it' I got a mega bucks strategy here, then it dropped, it dropped to -£36 loss, that's when I stopped using real money and learned a valuable lesson about testing, it annoys me because I know this already, I know you need to test first but greed took over and I suffered, you learn from your mistakes and although it wasn't a big loss it gave me a reality kick up the arse not to do it again.
Even though this strat is profiting in the hundreds now, it's still only a month into testing, I got the patience, determination and discipline to test more no matter what the paper trade profit is, I know from my previous strategy to do the hard work before using my hard earned on it.
HT 0-0 (version 1)
131 games
47 won
Back £5: -£54.35 loss
Max £5 lay liability: -£59.22 loss
Avg back odds 2.64
HT 0-0 (version 2)
59 games
21 won
Back £5 - £17.65 loss
Max £5 lay liability - £21.46 loss
Avg back odds 2.51HT 0-0 (version 3)
363 games
123 won
Back £5: £139 profit
Max £5 lay liability: £114.17 profit
Avg back odds 2.78
This version had a HT 0-0 match in the Serbian super league with back odds of 5.6 which won for £23 profit from £5 back bet.
HT 0-0 (version 4)
25 games
13 won
Back £5: £31.45 profit
Max £5 lay liability: £29.35 profit
Avg back odds 2.38Over 1.5 goals
116 games
78 wins
July profit/loss
Back £5: £15.59 profit
Max £5 lay liability: £15.90 profitI said last month that I wasn't going to trade real money on this strat this month but decided against it cos I wanted to stick to my trusted data and my rules.
Total profit for this strategy now at £158.93
June and July were down in filter results due to less leagues, but I'm glad I started this strat towards the end of last season because it's given me the time and understanding of what I have to do this season, this strat is now tailored for how I need it and ready for the new season, I'm still guna check my league stats for it during the season and that way I can make sure the leagues I'm trading on are still profitable and see if any leagues that didn't do so well last season are doing any better this season.
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@Simon-Bates that's oustanding work, really good to read it too.
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@Simon-Bates Really really smart matey, it's about being a scientist I think, questioning everything and getting the information that works for your strategy and your experiment.
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@Ryan throughout all of this, it's been the tiny things I've cherry picked from BTC, the members and things I've asked that has had a big impact on my trading, I've realised by keeping it simple and not over complicating things it doesn't mess with your head and give you the mindset of that this doesn't work, it just takes time to understand.
I'm still keeping my charts next to my strategies cos this gives me encouragement, this is from my latest strategy.
I know we're all different in the way we trade and how our mindsets are but I'm at the stage now where I'm enjoying it now cos I understand a hell of a lot more, and every now and then when a video comes out, I grab more information from it, I know your videos cater for all types of traders so only certain videos will give me the info I'm looking for.
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Amazing stuff, interesting isn't it how just one little thing like the video from Martin sparked something and you already had done a fair bit of work and now can delve into that a bit!
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June update:
As probably with most of you, the filter results I've had for June have been low due to less leagues, I'm used to 800+ for the month (I know quality over quantity, but I make profit from the vast filter results i get) but last month I only got 160 for my over 1.5 goal strategy which resulted in a loss of £36.69 using a max liability of £5 for each trade, I've been testing a slightly changed version of this strategy next to my original one, which has less filter results, 119, but ended June £9.94 in profit, again using a max liability of £5.
Over the last 3 months my tweaked version has had less filter results, which I've been working hard on to reduce and I'm getting there, and has also been more profitable than my original strategy.
I've decided not to trade real money during July due to no winter leagues, when they were on I was profiting by going 2 steps forward and 1 back, but at the moment it's been reversed so I'm not making profit, I'll still record all the data I need and if my tweaked strategy is still outdoing the original one then I'll swap over to that one at the start of the new seasons.
Its not all been bad though during the last month, because of lack of filter selections it's given me time to start a new strategy.
I watched a video from @Martin about dutcing correct scores, it opened my eyes even more at how to use the software and understand the statistics it showed, so I started a HT CS dutching strategy but I couldn't make it work, the paper profits were just going in one direction, down, so just as I was about to give up on that one, Martin did a training video on finding value odds, I went back to my failed dutching strategy filter and realised finding value odds from it was really good, so I completely changed which info I was going to take from it and my new strategy is finding games that are 0-0 at HT, it's only in its infancy, I started 3 weeks ago, I'm fairly confident of plenty of filter results too because I've had 104 selections during the summer Leagues, so I'm expecting a whole lot more when the winter leagues kick back in.
So far I've had 104 selections, 40 wins, giving me a strikerate of just over 37%, I'm getting average back odds of 2.65 for U0.5 HT goals and average lay odds of 1.6 for U0.5 HT goals.Since I started paper trading this on 12/06/24
Backing £5 on U0.5 HT goals has made £48.60
Laying £5 on U0.5 HT goals has made £15.30
Laying using a £5 max liability on U0.5 HT goals has made £69.74I will continue collecting the data I need for my new strategy and keep paper trading it till I'm as confident as I was with my other strategy before using real money.
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@Simon-Bates I bloody love this mate! This is good, really good.
I love how structured you've got it and made it work around your family as well.
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@Ryan, 9pm each day I go to the BTC software and download all my strategy filter results, from these I sort out the different strategies into their own spreadsheets, I then look at which games will be played through the night and record the odds/trade the games on my strategies spreadsheets so i don't miss any, if there are lots of filter results, which there can be on a weekend, as much as 130! (Even though this many is good for my profit, im still trying to find a way of streamlining it) I will record as many odds data as I can before going bed.
I'm 50 next year so my body has reached the stage where it wakes me up an hour before my alarm for work to make me go for my 'old man p**s'
I'm wide awake by then so I'll continue recording odds for my strategies and put trades on until my alarm goes off and I'll get ready for work, one thing I've noticed is not to put trades on the night before for games being played later on the next day (unless they're games through the early hours) cos the lay odds will drop the next day lowering my liabilities for my trades, as much as this makes me have to do more, putting trades on, it's worth it for the profit.I drive for one of the big supermartkets, so each time I get to a shop for a delivery, I'll carry on recording my odds data and put more trades on, I'll look to see where I'm driving to next and what time I'll get there, so I'll record and trade up till that time knowing when I stop next I'll continue doing it so I don't miss any, it sounds ridiculous I know but being a driver and working on the busiest trading days I've managed to work out how to get everything done that I need done while working, I have a decent routine now, also my spreadsheets are all tailored to how I need them now so I only have to add one lot of data and it gets spread around the appropriate sheets, that one tiny formula I got from @adam has helped my data entries big time.
Once the weekend has ended and there a fewer filter results and I'm off work, I'll go through and start collecting score data for my spreadsheets and see what profit/loss I've made.
I prefer doing it this way cos I can do the majority of it at work so it doesnt get in the way of family stuff and day to day home stuff that I need to do, I'll be honest and say it wasn't like that at the start, but I've managed to get into a routine now where doing this trading doesn't impact on my home life like it did at the start, I was a sponge for info when I first started but I'm disciplined enough now to not let it take over my life, I think this is down to me being more relaxed about it and realising not to chase every strategy going thinking I'm guna profit from them, I have my one strategy, I'm happy where I am with it and I'll just stick with it and bide my time till my bank grows and I can upscale.
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@Simon-Bates Love that graph! Great to see the trend line as well, how does that make you feel?
Sorry I am peppering you with Q's I just want to extract as much as I can from this post because I know how many have read it and haven't asked Q's so I know that its value and I also know some won't want to ask, so I am trying to do that for them.
That's a really interesting way to handle the itch, I have heard of people doing that before having a small amount in a bookie account to allow them to do those off the cuff ones and then they have said hang on I need to keep reloading that. They've also said thats like their dream account where they can visualise the big win while trading is the slow steady thing.
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@Simon-Bates I have a question for you....
How do you make sure that you research and get your trades all sorted and then tracked and collect the results around work while you work on those 3 days?
I think that would be fascinating to find out!
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Hi @Wayne-Thomas, I know what you mean about the data collection being a full time job, this is the part that is the most time consuming, I've tried using AI to find me the scores and make it do the work for me, I've posted about this too, there's a member who replied to me who's trying the same thing.
My working week is Friday to Monday, so I work during the 3 busiest trading days of the week, I'm also a lorry driver so sorting these days out while having limited time on my phone due to driving is an absolute nightmare
But like what you've said about you having your strategies locked and loaded for the start of the new season, this is where I am now, I have a routine collecting the data, I have all my spreadsheets in sync with each other, I'm ready to go again knowing I don't have to stress about trying to find all the data I need cos I've managed to sort it all now, obviously I'll still have to slog it out recording my data around my work and home life, but now I know what I have to do it's a lot easier.You're right about the chart, being able to see your strategy working and how you want it to work helps so much, you recommended putting in a trend line, I like this idea, I know it's probably simple to do but can you tell me how to do this please.
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@Ryan
[Gets notepad out]
I think the reason I didn't stick with just 1 strategy at the start was down to my own greed again thinking about the profit i could get and getting overwhelmed with the amount of strategy videos I'd watched from BTC, getting excited about making money from Betfair and blindly doing them without researching anything, took me a while to realise I was never going to be in profit without doing homework, once this was realised by myself my discipline took over and I knuckled down and started recording the data I needed.As a noob, you seriously only need to concentrate on 1 strategy, once you've mastered that one strategy it's easy to know what to look for when you want to start a new one, you still need to work hard for it but you'll have a hell of a lot more experience in understanding what you have to do for it.
I also realised my bank was going no where but down, so I dedicated my bank to my one strategy, there was plenty of stupid off the cuff, off my strategy trades, trying to grab a quick buck here and there, didnt work, but I've managed to stamp these out.
I've mentioned this before to another member, but what i do now when I get itchy trading fingers outside my strategy is just use the statistics in the software and pick out anything I'm confident of and whack em in an acca on one of my bookies accounts still giving me the buzz of 'trading' but without interfering with my Betfair 'bank' if it loses, this also helps me use the software more and more too, learning how to use it more confidently.Fomo is real, I'd have a good profitable day trading and go looking for more, I've stopped this now cos I know I just have to be patient and wait for the next day, there are filters results everyday for my strategy, of the 3 months I've been doing it there have only been 4 days without filter results and days with just a few, but I love these days now cos it let's me have a moment away from constantly recording results and finding odds, it's nice to have a rest from it once in a while.
