QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets

Patrik Mellqvist

QUESTION
Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets

I have one filter for SHG that perform with similar statistics as Gary's SHG Filter and it looks like this:

Filter:

SHG Chance above 60%
Over 1,5 goals chance above 90%
Over 2,5 goals chance above 60%
The Favourite Under 2,0 at kick-off in match odds

Now I want to tweak and change this filter - i want to tailor it to suits some estimated odds criteria for certian goal markets and i will explain the trading strategy and the odds criteria that i want for each goal market

But first i tought to back test or make the filter reverse and just add Over 2,5 goal markets value at 1,8 minium
As i then know that i will match that odds within 5 min mark at the beginning of second half

But if i do that i might get the filter it self in conflict and will get no qualifiers - so i tought maybe creating one critera that show each qualifers current odds at Over 2,5 goal market and from there make notes wich ones that are the most common ones and see if i can set the parameter for Over 2,5 goals close to 1.8 minimum or if i need to set that paramter a little lower and maybe tweak and change other criterias to achive what i serach for.

So the trading method drip-laying the Under goal market that is two goals ahead from the current half time score at odds 1.8 or lower
So 0-0 at half time i want the U1,5 goal market to lay at 1,8 or lower.
If the score is 0-1 or 1-0 i want to lay the U2,5 goal market at 1.8 or lower
If the score is 1-1 or 2-0 or 0-2 i want to lay the U3,5 goal market at 1.8 or lower
And i give some swing room for price to drift the first 5 min

So the first thing i want help with is to set up a filter that just show me the current odds for the Over 2,5 Goals Market - so i can make note and check the odds intervalls with that goal market and see wish category that match my 1.8 odds critera or get closets to my odds criteria 1.8

That i can check with my In-Play Exchange Simulation Sofware - just put in the match odds and O2.5 odds and i get almost the exact price movment in-play with my simulation sofware as the price movment will be in real live with Betfair Exchange

I think that is the best way to back track and reverse tesing this filter to see if there is some or none qualifers that give that odds range within the first 5 min for the current goal market using the strategi mention above.

If not i have to start changing the main filter and i want to try to avoid that as much as i can as it would not produce same strike ratio and be as profitable filter as the original or at least that is a risk and result that can come out of that.

Cheers

Patrik Mellqvist

@Martin said in QUESTION Advance Filter Setting - To Get Estimated Odds With Certain Goal Markets:

@Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I answer your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

To view the current odds of your selections you can see them in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

However these will only be the pre-match odds, they do not track in play.

Thanks, @Martin for the support and I know Adam mentioned this function as you had before on another topic.
But I feel it doesn't do the trick and opportunity for observations to tackle the situation correctly.

So I will trust my instinct this time and I will use the following set-up.

Original Filter (no-changes)
Strict Filter - (with added parameter/criteria with no further tweaks)
Relax Filter - (with added parameter/criteria and change the overall odds criteria with 0,5 tick difference)
Loose Filter - (add criteria with whole tick spread and free setting for the main criteria for observation)

a) Compare with the original settings qualifiers and what vanishes and what stays with the other options.
b) The filter set-up is a process and journey to decide and find the optimal and final setting filter from options.
c) Observation with fine-tuning and tailoring the final and optimal solution criteria and parameters.

I will do this for two SHG existing filters that i know have excellent results in their original shape.
The risk mitigation part of this experiment is that you might drop a certain degree of % in strike ratio and overall performance, but the already high values and performance will probably not affect the final results with such significance that it will make the applied trading strategy bust or fail.

Cheers

Martin

@Patrik-Mellqvist probably easiest if I anwser your first post then you ask another question after that, or I will get lost trying to follow all of these posts.

To view current odds of your selections you can see then in the criteria list on your strategy results. So when you click the filter and see the selections it will be listed as Criteria X (numbered based on which number it is in your criteria order when you created the filter).

However these will only be the prematch odds, they do not track inplay.

Patrik Mellqvist

Reflecting and come to following solution - One Strict Filter - One Relax Filter - One Loose Filter
Obeserve and see what create most and solid qualifiers
For both SHG Filters

Strict Filter
Original SHG Filters no change just adding SP O2,5 at 1.8

Relax Filter
Change swing room with 0,5 ticks to criterias and adding SP O2,5 at 1.8

Loose Filter
Change the swing room with 1 tick to criterieas and adding SP equal to 4.0 or less for O2,5
For observation

The Tailor Experiemnt for fine tuning the qualifers to suit the strategi with optimal settings

Patrik Mellqvist

My assumptions was correct because i tested different leagues and with Staring Price 1.8 minimum for O2.5
And all those matches qualifiy within 5 min mark - higher odds lower then 1.8 at the current goal market

Did one at 0-0 and the odds in play match at Half and after 5 min
Did one at 0-1 and at higher goal market and same results with Half and after 5 min

So now i know i need SHG Filter with starting price with the odds 1,8 minimum for O2,5 goals market to get qualifers for the trading stratgie.
So i want both high scoring filters and the correct O2,5 goal odds at start of the game

See how much but quick testing to come to nice and cool conclusions

ONE ISSUE LEFT TO SOLVE - Some home work

To see if i get any qualifers with high scoring SHG filter when setting Staring Odds for 1.8 for O2,5
Will be smart and make three filters to see how many slection match, One Strict, One Relax, One Loose

Strict at minimum 1.8
Relax at 1,7
Loose - qual to 3.0 or less (to see at what odds range match if not Relax and Strict give qualifeirs

Will make an Loose option for Gary's and set equal or less then 3.0 to see what price range the O2.5 starting price are with this selections
And i can back track the statistical results to see the O2.5 SP

I think maybe 1,74 or 1,75 might work and price drift maybe 6 to 7 min and among that higher odds that will match with no issue - that is the main idea
If not well then i will see at what minimum price the O2,5 will match at

Patrik Mellqvist

I think i solve it - I run my CGM Bet statistical simulation software for summer leagues and set the paramters at 0-1 half time and check the games with close to 1.8 for the current Back Under 2.5 goal market that is 1 or 2 ticks differnt from the Lay Under 2,5 goals market.

Then i go to betexplorer and check the starting odds for Over 2.5 goals market
And i have the criteteria for the odds benchmark to give me good qualifers in-play at HT no matter score line

And to check it one extra to be sure the stats and odds are correct i run the game with my In-Play Exchange Simulation Software

Problem solved

But maybe some one has similiar issue then i can help them run this kind of simulation to check the in-play odds criteria when i have time to help

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